South Caucasus

"Confidence-building measures are a necessary element in any strategy to end conflicts", writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. Whilst there have been instances of confidence-building measures in the context of the Karabakh conflict for decades, the post-2020 confidence-building measures differ from the pre-war process. "The participants are more realistic in their expectations and assessments of the situation, understanding that no miracles are possible and that any solution requires painful decisions, especially from the Armenian side. A country cannot lose the war and hope for a solution to satisfy all its expectations and desires. However, this understanding also does not mean that in the post-2020 war period, those Armenians involved in confidence-building measures were ready to accept any solution to the conflict. They seek a difficult balance between being realistic and avoiding putting themselves into “echo-chamber”, situations while not rejecting their core beliefs on the acceptable ways of conflict settlement."

The United Nations Security Council will discuss the situation around Lachin at a meeting in new York on Wednesday, 16 August. The meeting will be open. Under the rules of the United Nations, the Chairmanship of the Security Council moves monthly by rotation in alphabetical order, and this month the Chair is the United States. US diplomacy, with the personal participation of US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, has over the last year been trying to assist Armenia and Azerbaijan to develop a peace treaty between them. Although some progress has been made, there remain several stumbling issues on which both sides are showing intransigence. There is speculation that the United States may use tomorrow's meeting to push for a a quicker pace in the ongoing Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations, and possibly a bigger role for the UN in the issue of the future of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh. This will be fiercely resist by Azerbaijan which is hoping that it friends amongst non-aligned countries will help tone down any criticism of its actions.

Yesterday on Thursday (10 August), Armenia and Iran signed an agreement to extend an energy swap deal for another for years and increase its volumes. Armenian Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure Gnel Sanosian said that the extension of the agreement is "one of the best manifestations of Armenian-Iranian friendly relations", adding that "the extension of the agreement is a profitable deal for both countries."

At least 20 people are confirmed to have been killed by a landslide in Shovi, northern Georgia, on Thursday last week (3 August). The Speaker of the Georgian Parliament, Shalva Papuashvili, gave the latest update on Wednesday morning (9 August). According to the Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs, around a dozen people remain unaccounted for.

At least 11 people have been killed in a landslide in Shovi, northern Georgia, on Thursday afternoon (3 August). Immediately after the disaster struck around 70 people were moved to a safe area, and according to a statement from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, two border police helicopters and around 400 rescuers had been deployed in the first night of the rescue operation.

Large protests have greeted a Russian cruise ship docking in the Georgian port city of Batumi on Monday (31 July). It is the second such protest in less than a week after the Astoria Grande docked on Thursday (27 July) despite protests, and left Georgia two days earlier than scheduled. Major demonstrations had already begun outside the port in Batumi around midnight on Monday, hours before the cruise ship, which is reported to be carrying a number famous Russian media personalities and celebrities who have expressed support for Russia's ongoing invasion, docked in Batumi. 

The Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers meet in Moscow today at the invitation of their Russian counterpart. It is the latest attempt by Russia to ensure that it is not marginalized, as Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations continue in earnest with western mediation. In this op-ed for commonspace.eu, Benyamin Poghosyan says that Russian demands to include in the peace agreement the issue of rights and security of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh may allow Armenia to take a more flexible position during the upcoming negotiations and seek to create minimally acceptable conditions for Armenians living in Nagorno Karabakh.