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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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GULF CRISIS
Monday Commentary: The war nobody wanted, but that may end up harming everybody

Monday Commentary: The war nobody wanted, but that may end up harming everybody

The war of the United States and Israel against Iran has entered its third week. Not a very long time some would say, but enough already to have changed the Middle East, not in any good way. As the BBC veteran Security Correspondent, Frank Gardner, put it, the war has put a shadow over the whole region. Nobody, except for Benyamin Netanyahu, wanted this war, not even Donald Trump. The war, unless it is stopped quickly may end up harming everybody. The way out is clear: De-escalate, negotiate, and re-build, even if as of today, the prospect for that appear distant. The only way out of the present crises is first through de-escalation. A cease fire may not be possible for weeks, but using diplomatic back channels the US and Iran may agree to de-escalate,  or to put it more crudely, stop shooting. It will be up to Trump to ensure that Netanyahu stops shooting too. Once de-escalation happens, the difficult process of negotiations can start again, focusing on the nuclear file and picking up from where discussions were left on 27 February. This is an agreement within reach – a non nuclear Iran in  return for the lifting of sanctions. Other possibilities are possible, and once a cease fire is agreed the EU and China can also be involved in the discussions. Finally, a process of rebuilding must start. The GCC have the money to do reconstruction of infrastructure quickly. Reputational damage to their Shangri-la image will take longer. Rebuilding Iran will be more challenging, given the scale of the destruction, and will require more money than Tehran has. Even as the bombs continue to fall, this issue needs to be considered. In the end no one really wanted this war, and no-one is going to benefit from it. It must be brought to an end as soon as possible, but the thinking of what happens after must start now.
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News
Updated: Kazakhstan approves important constitutional changes

Updated: Kazakhstan approves important constitutional changes

Kazakh voters in a referendum on Sunday approved a new constitution, exit polls showed. Two exit polls said around 87% of voters had backed the new constitution. Turnout stood at 73%, the electoral commission earlier said. The new constitution streamlines the country's parliament, and recreates the office of vice president, which was abolished in 1996. According to the Central Referendum Commission of Kazakhstan, 12,046,617 citizens were eligible to participate in the referendum. 359 international observers and 206 foreign journalists were accredited to monitor the referendum in order to ensure the transparency of the voting process. International organizations monitoring the referendum include the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the CIS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Organization of Turkic States, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. The Central Referendum Commission must announce the final results of the vote within seven days after the referendum. A total of 10,401 polling stations operated inside and outside the country to organize voting. 71 of them were opened at diplomatic missions in 54 countries. The new Constitution will enter into force on July 1, 2026. After that, elections for a new parliament are planned in the country, and these elections are expected to be organized by the end of August. The position of vice president will be implemented after the formation of the new parliament. The referendum was the fifth in the history of independent Kazakhstan and leads to the adoption of a new fundamental law that will determine the direction of the country's political and legal development in the coming years. The Referendum was held at the initiative of the President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and envisages the implementation of large-scale constitutional reforms in the country. According to the submitted draft, approximately 84 percent of the text of the Constitution has been updated and new articles and sections have been developed. The question on the ballot paper asks, "Do you accept the new Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan?" Voters express their position by answering "for" or "against" this question. Currently, the Constitution adopted on August 30, 1995, is in force in Kazakhstan. Since its adoption, the document has been repeatedly amended and supplemented. The latest amendments entered into force in September 2022. However, the scale of the proposed reforms necessitated the preparation of a new Constitutional document. Thus, the amendments cover approximately 84 percent of the text of the existing basic law. The draft of the new Constitution was presented to the public in early February 2026. After the document was published, the country's citizens were given more than a month to familiarize themselves with it and discuss the proposed changes. (Click the picture to read more)