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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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Commentary
A strategic choice: Armenian voters between diversification and dependency

A strategic choice: Armenian voters between diversification and dependency

Exactly one month before the parliamentary elections in Armenia, Yerevan was transformed into the center of Europe, hosting the 8th European Political Community Summit, parallel to which the inaugural Armenia-European Union Summit and the state visit of French President Emmanuel Macron were also held. Such developments in Armenia-EU relations became possible after the National Assembly of Armenia adopted a law on March 26, 2025, initiating the process of Armenia's accession to the EU. Yerevan and Brussels are also engaged in an active dialogue on visa liberalization. Cooperation in the fields of security and defence is deepening, and the EU has also expressed support for Armenia's agenda on regional unblocking and the diversification of economic relations. Just days before the elections, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also arrived in Armenia for a brief visit. The Secretary's visit was marked by the signing of three crucial documents. Through one of them, Armenia-US relations were effectively elevated to yet another level, reaching a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Additionally, the framework agreement on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) was initialed, along with a framework memorandum on critical minerals and rare earths. Undoubtedly, Armenian-American relations are developing and deepening at an unprecedented pace. Specifically, the Republic of Armenia and the US transitioned from a strategic dialogue to a strategic partnership on January 14, 2025. It is noteworthy that while this initial document was signed under the US Democratic administration, the Republicans, led by Donald Trump, contrary to the assertions of many, did not ignore this partnership. Instead, they elevated it to a new level with lightning speed and infused it with strategic depth, demonstrating their consistency and active interest in Armenia, as well as in peace and stability in the South Caucasus. (To read the full commentary, click on the image above.)
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Commentary
The US-Iran memorandum postpones the hardest questions. The Gulf cannot afford to do the same

The US-Iran memorandum postpones the hardest questions. The Gulf cannot afford to do the same

A preliminary memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran was agreed on Thursday (28 May), emerging as one of the most concrete diplomatic developments of the war so far. Writing for Arab News, Hassan Al-Mustafa reported that the memorandum's primary provisions focus on the consolidation of a renewable truce, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the removal of naval mines, the allowing of the passage of commercial ships and oil tankers without fees, and a gradual easing of economic restrictions on Iran (note, it postpones the negotiations on the nuclear issue entirely). The memorandum, importantly, is not a finalized peace deal but rather a genuine attempt to establish a safe transition from war to the negotiating table. And hence, as reported by Hassan Al-Mustafa, it leaves some obstacles along the way: whether Iran‘s opening of the Strait will be full and instant or gradual and conditional; whether sanctions relief will precede or follow nuclear commitments; whether Iran will commit to restraining and holding back its allied groups in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen; and whether US President Trump will succeed in separating the Iran track from his desire to expand the Abraham Accords, especially given that Saudi Arabia has coupled any recognition of Israel to a credible road map toward Palestinian statehood. Another factor defining the success of the memorandum of understanding comes from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s participation in a group call with Trump and the leaders of Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, Egypt, Türkiye, and Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, but reflects Riyadh’s determination that an understanding with Tehran must be embedded in an integrated regional security framework, beyond a bilateral deal between Washington and Tehran alone. (To read the full briefing, click on the image above.)