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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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Commentary
Beyond the ballot: Elections as a test of public reason and political consciousness

Beyond the ballot: Elections as a test of public reason and political consciousness

When we speak about Armenia’s upcoming parliamentary elections, public attention naturally turns to the visible political outcome: who will win, which parties or alliances will cross the threshold, how the balance between the ruling party and the opposition may shift, and how the next political cycle will be shaped. These are legitimate questions. Elections are the constitutional mechanism through which power is formed, renewed, challenged, or transferred. Yet elections are never only about the final result. In a democratic society, they are also a process through which the condition of political culture, public debate, and informational resilience becomes visible. In Armenia’s case, this broader dimension is especially important. The campaign unfolds in a society shaped by security uncertainty, post-war trauma, contested perceptions of peace, concerns over sovereignty, external influence, institutional distrust, and social fatigue. For this reason, Armenia’s elections should be examined not only through the ballot box, but also through the public and informational environment in which citizens’ choices are being formed. A democratic election is not complete merely because citizens are formally able to vote. It is complete when, before voting, citizens can orient themselves in an environment of facts, substantiated arguments, political programs, responsible commentary, and public accountability.
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Commentary
The war exposed the Gulf’s vulnerabilities; the ceasefire is exposing its divisions

The war exposed the Gulf’s vulnerabilities; the ceasefire is exposing its divisions

Despite the fragile ceasefire, the question for the Gulf has continued to shift towards what comes next. Writing for Arab News, Faisal J. Abbas offered a clear articulation of where Riyadh stands, describing it as a position firmly oriented toward preventing the resurgence of war and achieving the unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and after which, structured discussions with Iran should resume quickly. This is further reflected in the decision to allow the Iranian ambassador to remain in Riyadh while ultimately requiring the military attaché to leave, which should also be noted as a statement in itself. This is alongside full support for Pakistani mediation and consistent calls between Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi, both signals that communication channels were never fully closed. However, a more ambitious analysis of Saudi thinking came from Tamer Ajrami, writing for Middle East Monitor, who reported that Riyadh is floating something close to a ‘Gulf Helsinki Act’, which is a framework meant to extend beyond bilateral Saudi-Iranian deals and encompass the wider Gulf and European Union, being built around three practical building blocks: security and non-aggression, economic cooperation and stable energy flows, and verification and implementation. It was argued that Saudi Arabia is stepping forward to lead this collective track, not out of fondness for peace mediation but rather because the cost of the ongoing chaos has become higher than the cost of a deal. Washington is importantly absent from this architecture because, as Ajrami argues, it has already failed. (To read the full briefing, click on the image above.)