Europe has grown uncomfortably familiar with Russia’s policy towards its “near abroad”: the former Soviet states that Moscow continues to treat as part of its rightful sphere of influence. Sheltered by NATO and still invested in managing relations with Russia, Western capitals responded to the 2008 war in Georgia and the 2014 annexation of Crimea as serious but containable shocks: the first largely through mediation and monitoring, the second through non-recognition and sanctions. That sense of distance has since collapsed. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 turned the post-Soviet space into a central theatre of European security, while Donald Trump has further unsettled confidence in the NATO umbrella itself. Few observers are better placed to make sense of this moment than Régis Genté. A French journalist based in Tbilisi for more than two decades, he has covered the South Caucasus and the wider post-Soviet world for Le Figaro, Radio France Internationale, and France 24, alongside policy work for think tanks including IFRI. In his book Notre homme à Washington: Trump dans la main des Russes, he argues that the US president's posture toward Moscow is neither erratic nor accidental, but the product of a four-decade Russian cultivation that has tied Trump to the Kremlin more tightly than Washington or Brussels yet admits. In this conversation, he traces those ties, explains how Putin keeps Russia's elites bound to the Kremlin, and reads Georgia's political crisis as a case study in Russian post-imperial influence. (To read the full interview, click on the image above.)

A week remains until Armenia’s parliamentary elections. The campaign is in full swing, political forces are attacking one another in increasingly harsh terms, investigations into hybrid attacks against Armenia appear almost daily, and statements interfering in Armenia’s internal affairs continue to come from Moscow. The June 7 elections are arguably the most geopolitically significant in Armenia’s modern history. Their outcome will shape the country’s trajectory for years. Campaign narratives suggest that Armenian voters will effectively answer several strategic questions: whether to continue normalization with Azerbaijan and Turkey or revise existing understandings; whether to deepen ties with the EU or strengthen dependence on Russia; whether to continue democratic reforms or return figures associated with the previous political system. According to an IRI survey conducted in mid-May, Armenians’ top concerns are national security and border issues, the economy and unemployment, and peace. Unsurprisingly, the Armenia–Azerbaijan normalization process has become the central issue of the campaign. Against this backdrop, political and expert circles are again debating the idea of “guaranteed peace” and international security guarantees. The debate is not new. Since the launch of peace treaty negotiations in 2022, the Armenian government has repeatedly emphasized the need for “international support” and “international legitimacy.” At the time, negotiations were mediated simultaneously by the EU, Russia, and the United States, while Nagorno-Karabakh had not yet been emptied of its Armenian population. However, after the involuntary displacement of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenians amid the inaction of Russian peacekeepers and the weak international response, official Yerevan gradually revised its approach. The idea of external guarantors increasingly appeared unrealistic, and the negotiation process became more bilateral in nature. (To read the full article, click on the image above.)