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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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Monday Commentary
NATO Summit in The Hague 2: everyone survived, now all eyes on Turkiye

NATO Summit in The Hague 2: everyone survived, now all eyes on Turkiye

The Nato Summit held in The Hague on 24-25 June was a failure, wrapped in success. It was a success because it avoided public display of divisions, mainly by avoiding issues: it was the shortest summit anyone can remember; it also had a very short final statement that basically had two points, the first a re-commitment to article 5 of the North Atlantic Charter and the principle that an attack on one will be considered an attack on all. The fact that Nato leaders in the Hague had felt the need to re-emphasise this should be a cause of worry not celebration, but in the end, it is good that it was said. The second outcome, the one that received most attention, was the commitment of European countries to spend more on their defence: 5% of GDP, of which 3.5% on hard defence, and 1.5% on related ancillary areas such as infrastructure. You may, if you want, believe that this was a response to US President Donald Trump's insistence. Or, if you are more prudent, understand that countries that matter – Germany, France, Poland and the Scandinavian countries had decided on this course of action quite separately, and as a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which was a wake-up call. Finland and Sweden’s decision to abandon their neutrality, and join NATO was taken long before Trump returned to the White House. The EU’s decision to spend massively on defence was always to ensure that other European countries are part of this process, willy-nilly.
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News
Several countries bordering Russia will leave the Ottawa Convention which bans land mines

Several countries bordering Russia will leave the Ottawa Convention which bans land mines

Several countries that border Russia intend to leave the Ottawa Convention which bans anti personnel land mines. They include EU member states Finland, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, as well as Ukraine. Russia has not signed the Ottawa treaty and continues to stockpile and use landmines. Ukraine is withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention, which prohibits the use, stockpiling and production of anti-personnel mines, according to Roman Kostenko, People's Deputy of the Golos party and Secretary of the Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine . He said this is a step that the realities of war have long required. "Russia is not a party to this convention and is massively using mines against our military and civilians. We cannot remain constrained in conditions where the enemy has no restrictions," the MP noted.
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News
Shame on the Georgian government: many political leaders arrested as Georgian Dream desperately tries to hold on to power

Shame on the Georgian government: many political leaders arrested as Georgian Dream desperately tries to hold on to power

The Georgian government appears to be increasingly scraping the bottom of the barrel, as it becomes increasingly authoritarian in a desperate attempt to hold on to power, amidst street protests and increasing popular discontent. In the last days a number of prominent political leaders have been arrested on various charges, triggering widespread international condemnation.  They join about 500 others arrested during the  recent street protests. Human rights groups say that 300 of them were subjected to torture.
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Opinion
Opinion: Armenia Close To The Brink

Opinion: Armenia Close To The Brink

Bagrat Galstanyan, the hardline cleric who led street protests against the start of border demarcation between Armenia and Azerbaijan and called for the resignation or impeachment of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, has been placed in pre-trial detention for two months. More than a dozen others have also been detained, with that number expected to rise. They are accused of plotting a coup ahead of next year's parliamentary elections, following the publication by pro-Pashinyan media of an alleged seven-page document detailing the plan.
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News
Russia’s mass abduction of Ukrainian children has been called a war crime.

Russia’s mass abduction of Ukrainian children has been called a war crime.

According to experts from Yale University and Ukrainian groups, Russia’s forced removal of Ukrainian children during the war constitutes the largest abduction of children in a conflict since World War II. Such a violation has been described as a clear war crime.