As Viktor Orbán’s government suffered a landslide defeat in Hungary last month, one of the main questions was how Prime Minister Péter Magyar’s new and much more pro-EU government would affect the EU’s ability to enact punitive measures against Russia, in particular the severity of sanctions that it could apply to the Kremlin and those indirectly supporting its war effort in Ukraine. With Hungary no longer stonewalling these efforts, the EU adopted its 20th sanctions package against Russia on the 24th of April. For the first time, the EU has used its ‘anti-circumvention’ tools and applied them to Kyrgyzstan. These are secondary sanctions on countries helping the Kremlin bypass the primary sanctions imposed upon it as a consequence of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While individual Kyrgyz as well as other Central Asian banks and entities have been targeted before, this is the first time they have been applied to an entire country. Kyrgyzstan’s imports of European dual-use technologies, in particular telecommunications equipment and metalworking machinery, far exceed its domestic demand and are being re-exported to Russia, according to EU Sanctions Envoy David O’Sullivan. This is also greatly facilitated by Ruble-backed cryptocurrency, allowing re-export transactions with Russian entities to better circumvent sanctions, which is why Kyrgyz cryptocurrency company TengriCoin has also been included, along with two major Kyrgyz banks. While this re-export business is surely profitable for Kyrgyz companies, it remains to be seen whether this sanctions package will have any immediate noticeable effect on the Kyrgyz economy. Past EU sanctions have already been criticised by the Kyrgyz government, with President Sadyr Japarov previously describing EU sanctions against individual Kyrgyz entities as “baseless” and interfering in internal affairs. First Deputy Cabinet Chair of Kyrgyzstan, Daniyar Amangeldiev, also pointed out that sweeping sanctions against Kyrgyzstan will have consequences for its image on the global stage. Regardless, the EU has now pushed through its 20th sanctions package, which is undoubtedly an escalation from previous iterations and presents a difficult situation for the Kyrgyz government to navigate. So far, Kyrgyzstan has responded by calling for transparent talks with the European Commission, and is reportedly in direct consultations with the EU, as well as US and UK officials, who have also levied their own sanctions against Kyrgyz entities.

The campaign for the Armenian parliamentary elections began on Friday (8 May), with 17 parties and two electoral blocs in the running. All are seeking to enter parliament and win the support of around 2.5 million eligible voters across Armenia. With the campaign underway, each party is already mobilising public opinion against the other. Parties are divided on different themes: peace vs reconsideration of the current peace process, European vs Russian trajectories, and populist vs democratic tendencies, among other political cleavages shaping the campaign. Each party is targeting different segments of the Armenian electorate and hoping that its strategy will secure seats in parliament. The ruling Civil Contract Party will run independently and once again be led by the current Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan. The party faces several challengers, including former President Robert Kocharyan’s Armenia Alliance party, the Strong Armenia alliance associated with businessman and philanthropist Samvel Karapetyan, and Gagik Tsarukyan’s Prosperous Armenia Party. Other parties include the former Human Rights Defender Arman Tatoyan’s Wings of Unity party, the Armenian National Congress, which is expected to participate under the leadership of Levon Zurabyan, and Edmon Marukyan’s Bright Armenia Party. In addition, former Yerevan mayor Hayk Marutyan is also entering the elections with his New Force party, and Aram Sargsyan, leader of the Republic Party and brother of former Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsyan, who was killed during the 1999 Armenian parliament shooting, confirmed that his party will also run independently. Lastly, among others, the newly formed movement called Against Everyone is also hoping to garner support from undecided voters. (To read the full briefing, click on the image above.)

The deadline given by US president Donald Trump for the “opening” by Iran of the Straits of Hormuz is approaching. "Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!" will not mark the end of the world. But it will be the end of the Middle East as we know it. Trump delivered his ultimatum in the most unorthodox way for a world leader. The paragraph below contains very strong language, which we do not usually allow on commonspace.eu, but given the fact that they were written by the president of the United States in a public post, we are making an exception. Trump says: "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP". Iran have made it clear that if their oil and water infrastructure is attacked, they will reciprocate by attacking similar infrastructure in neighbouring GCC countries. Given the dependence of these states on energy resources for their economies, and on desalination plants for their water, within days we will see a total change of reality in the Middle East. Sane people all over the world are calling for de-escalation and a return to negotiations. This war should never have started, but now it must stop. This is not a game and not a movie. "Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!" must not become a deadline leading to a tragic end for the Middle East. It can and should mark the moment of a new beginning for the region. (This is a comment by the editorial team of commonspace.eu).

The TRIPP project (the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity) is seen as a key component of the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process. For Azerbaijan, TRIPP promises access to the Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia; for Armenia, the route reaffirms the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. In addition, TRIPP is expected to open up regional trade and connectivity, while the presence of the United States on the ground in developing the route provides Armenia with an added layer of security reassurance. Many analysts argue that TRIPP is at the very heart of the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and they are not wrong. A possible delay in its implementation or a loss of interest from the Trump administration in advancing the route would raise big concerns regarding the peace process in both Baku and Yerevan. (Click on the image above for the full briefing.)

The US-Israeli war against Iran is in its third week. It is taking its toll, even if in different ways, on all the countries involved, on the Gulf states and other neighbouring countries, and ultimately on the whole world. This war must be stopped as soon as possible, before it does more harm. One aspect of the conflict however deserves special attention. This is Iran's attacks on the neighbouring GCC states, and other countries such as Azerbaijan and Turkey. These attacks have been indiscriminate, and have already killed or injured innocent civilians, and did untold damage especially to the neighbouring GCC states. US president Donald Trump was disingenious when he said yesterday (16 March) that he was taken by surprise. Iran's late Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei said on 1 February clearly "America should know that if it starts a war, this time it will be a regional war". The warning does not excuse Iranian action. The Gulf countries and other neighbours did not want a war on Iran, and tried to prevent it.  The targeting of civilians and civilian targets in unacceptable in all situations, but becomes more serious when those targeted are in non beligerent countries. Iran must stop attacking its neighbours now! They are a path to de-escalation, and a cease fire. The world stands in solidarity with the GCC countries and other neighbours. Iran has to understand this.