Peace Dialogue, an NGO based in Armenia, has published its Annual Review for 2023-2024, highlighting its efforts, achievements, and continued dedication to promoting human rights, peace, democracy, and fostering dialogue in conflict-affected societies. The NGO’s commitment to peace, inclusion and a multi-stakeholder approach stood out in the numerous projects they have implemented during the past two years ranging from advancing the rights of prisoners of war to developing inclusive oversight of security to fostering human rights and a lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

If there is one thing that strikes out from the events in Georgia in the last five weeks it is Salome Zurabishvili and the role she has played in keeping together the disparate Georgian Opposition. She has risen to the occasion in a way few thought she has the capacity to do. Georgian Dream never took her seriously, in all the time she was president. That had little consequence. But their failure to take her seriously now is a fatal mistake which will cost them dearly. Salome Zurabishvili left the Orbeliani Palace on 29 December, saying she was taking her legitimacy with her. Most Georgians still see her as the president. In any case, Salome Zurabishvili has become a phenomena. She will be a part of any future solution for Georgia Georgian Dream were very keen to replace Salome Zurabishvili. But their choice is unfortunate. Most Georgians had not heard of Mikheil Kavelashvili before he was nominated to the post of president. Those that did, remembered him as an ex-footballer. In parliament his role was completely undistinguished: one of a cohort of men that Georgian Dream wheels out whenever it needs the numbers to pass a law or some other administrative measure. Under the Georgian constitution, the president is a symbolic figurehead. But Kavelashvili cannot even be that. His time as president is likely to be a short and unhappy one. Crises? What crises? That Georgia is in the middle of its most serious crises since independence is recognised by most. But the Georgian Dream government is in complete denial. It is treating events on the streets of Tbilisi and other Georgian cities as temporary aberrations which will soon blow away and are forgotten. It is completely indifferent to the calls of the international community. This is an example of how cut-off the Georgian Dream government is from reality. It was left to Gia Volski, the ascetic 1st Deputy Speaker of Parliament, to articulate a response to the accusation that the Georgian government was ignoring a major crises. Speaking at a press briefing on 30 December, Volski said: “The situation is difficult, but it does not indicate the existence of a political crisis”. Volski than explained what in his view constitutes a crises: “a political crisis is a situation when the government cannot be approved, the budget cannot be adopted or a vote of no confidence is expressed in the government!” Until they admit there is a crisis the Georgian Dream will not take measures that would contribute to its solution. Ivanishvili must get real In all this, a central figure is the de facto leader of Georgian Dream and ruler of Georgia, Bidzina Ivanishvili. This week he was included on a US sanction list. But many think it could have been worse – and some think it should have been worse. But it seems what the Americans tried to do is to bring Bidzina to his senses. Ivanishvili must get real for his sake, and for the sake of Georgia. There is still a small chance that he will. Georgians need to draw lessons from present events in order to build a future that is both honourable and sustainable.

Time is up for the Georgian Dream and its leader Bidzina Ivanishvili. Many in Georgia accused the Georgian Dream of rigging the elections of 28 October, and in recent weeks there have been protests in Georgia calling for new fair elections and an investigation into what actually happened around the election period and the election process. The beating up of peaceful demonstrators in the streets of Tbilisi in recent days is an embarrassment to every decent Georgian Dream supporter. That was bad enough, but what finally broke the government's support was the decision by the Georgian Dream two days ago to end its negotiations with the European Union with a view to Georgia's joining the EU or rather postpone the negotiations with four years. This created a completely different situation. Because, first of all, EU membership and EU perspective is embedded in the Georgian constitution, so Georgian Dream has no power to actually renounce or delay this mandate. Secondly, for many people it brought up the whole question of future relations with the EU and the West, and in truth no one in Georgia wants to break relations and the decision of the Georgian Dream leaves it isolated and unable to claim the support of the whole society.

Tadjik President Emomamli Rahmon has run Tajikistan with an iron hand since taking power in 1992. There are now reports that he is preparing to hand power to his son. So, news of dissent in the Central Asian Republic is rare. News of a coup and the arrests of many prominent former officials have therefore triggered a lot of speculation. Saidjafar Usmonzoda, a prominent member of the Tajik parliament, was detained on June 14 for allegedly “plotting to overthrow the government.” Prosecutor-General Yusuf Rahmon accused Usmonzoda of collaborating with the foreign-based opposition group National Pact of Tajikistan and of speaking with its leader, the self-exiled Sharofiddin Gadoev. Parliament quickly stripped Usmonzoda of his immunity 

Last week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, politely declined an invitation by Italian Prime Minister, Georgia Meloni, to attend as a special guest at the G7 summit held in Italy. Prince Mohammed said he could not attend as he had to oversee the annual Hajj. Whilst to some, this may have seemed like a weak diplomatic excuse, in fact, it was a very real one. Year after year, the Hajj has presented a serious political, logistical, and humanitarian challenge to the Saudi authorities. Domestically, Saudi governments are often judged by how they manage the Hajj. The Hajj is an annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia,  the holiest city for Muslims. The Hajj is a mandatory religious duty for Muslims that must be carried out at least once in their lifetime by all adult Muslims who are physically and financially capable of undertaking the journey, and of supporting their family during their absence from home.

Nikol Pashinyan has taken Armenia on a long journey, and brought it close to peace with Azerbaijan. Few if any believed that he could achieve what has been done so far. It is true that Azerbaijani military superiority, the victory in 2020, and the puzzling events of September 2023, which saw the overnight collapse of the Armenian political project in Nagorno-Karabakh and the subsequent exodus of the entire Armenian population from the territory, in many ways pre-determined what is about to follow. But given the entrenched nationalist positions and hard-line narratives that have traditionally characterised Armenia’s political thinking, even these developments were not enough to guarantee peace. The last part of the journey had to be done in the minds of Armenians, and Pashinyan set about doing this with conviction and determination, challenging the narrative of a historical Armenia, that is only the imagination of the nationalist elites and advocating instead, "a real" Armenia with fixed border.

Vladimir Putin was sworn in for another six-year term as the President of Russia on Tuesday, 7 May. With Putin having been the undisputed leader of Russia for decades, continuity, one would have thought, was assured. Yet Putin himself, on Monday (13 May) speaking at a meeting of the Security Council spoke of “a new political cycle” in Russia. Some of the first decisions of the re-elected president give us a sense of what is to come. First, there was the surprise dismissal of Sergei Shoigu as Minister of Defence, and his transfer to be the Secretary of the Security Council. There had been speculation for some time that Shoigu’s time at the Ministry of Defence was up. But what was surprising was the appointment of Andrei Belousov, former Deputy Prime Minister – an efficient technocrat with an economic background to replace him. That the Russian Ministry of Defence has needed a shake-up for some time has been abundantly clear, but Andrei Belousov’s mission seems to be more ambitious than that: He is tasked with transforming the Russian Defence Ministry into a modern institution that can embrace new ideas and techniques, and that has enough flexibility to conduct the sort of hybrid warfare that is likely to be the order of the day going forward. So despite all of Putin’s bravados about the Russian nuclear arsenal, it seems he is putting his faith in a more innovative, agile, and versatile force. Then on Monday, 13 May, Putin held his first meeting of the Security Council since his inauguration. The Kremlin website only referred to one item out of apparently several that were discussed, namely relations with the post-Soviet Republics, a subject much close to the heart of the president. Putin reiterated that this was a priority in foreign policy. Putin said, “we should pay even more attention to this area in the new political cycle in Russia and discuss the way we will organise this work from all points of view, including organisational”. So it appears that there is new thinking in this sphere, details of which is not yet known.

The nexus between “climate change, peace and security” has been at the centre of attention for many years. It is not only about how climate change is exacerbating environmental conditions, increasing the prospects for conflict on owning and sharing resources, and accentuating already existing problems, such as for example water shortage in the Sahel, but it is also about how conflicts are contributing directly to a worsening environmental situation, increasing the gravity of climate change. With major climatic incidents now a regular occurrence across the world, and from which no one is spared, minds have recently become more focused. At COP28 in Dubai in December 2023, the UAE took the initiative to bring the discussion within a COP context. Here again, there was no consensus, with Russia, China and some of the countries in the Global South resisting, But the UAE persisted, and found a way through which they could do three things: insert the theme in the proceedings of COP28; establish a dedicated day during the COP summit where the focus was peace, and push for the adoption, even if not by consensus of the “COP28 declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace“. This was a big achievement, but only a start. It is clear that what was achieved in Dubai needs to be consolidated and developed in Baku in November 2024. The Azerbaijan government, host of COP29 was initially reluctant to go too far in the inclusion of the peace agenda in COP29 but they have now warmed up to the idea. Over the weekend, the Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor, Hikmet Haciyev, spoke about the possibility of having a COP truce during the Baku summit. There are more than a hundred ongoing armed conflicts in the world. Securing a cease-fire in even one of them would be positive and welcome, but may be very difficult to achieve. A COP29 cease-fire may be an aspiration, but the focus should be on more tangible objectives, and particularly on building on what has been already achieved in COP28 This can include: Having the theme Climate Change, Peace and Security as a theme of COP29; More specifically in Baku the focus should be on water scarcity; food insecurity and landmine contamination and the linkage between conflict and environmental degradation • Having a dedicated day of peace in the COP29 programme, with the participation of the UN Secretary-General, and a gathering of Nobel Peace Price winners • Adopting a new declaration, building on the one agreed in Dubai in November, which would also have the possibility of signatories presenting packages that could be practical tools for moving forward some of the ideas contained in it. All this is doable. There are then other issues on which work needs to be done, but which are also achievable. Will COP29 be historic also because it would be the first time an Armenian leader visits Baku since the long conflict of the last three decades? Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan does not shy away from difficult decisions. He can very well see the value of this gesture, particularly since in Baku he will not only be welcomed by the leader of Azerbaijan, but by the biggest gathering of world leaders ever to gather in the South Caucasus. President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan can co-host a special event at the dedicated Peace Day. Imagine the significance of that! All the ingredients exist to make COP29 in Baku a historic summit of peace and it should not be missed. But there is much work to be done yet, and the negativity of the malcontents needs to be overcome.