Geostrategic Europe

A public opinion survey conducted by the Institute for Social Research and Analysis (ISSA) indicates widespread support for Georgia’s accession to the EU amongst Georgians with 86 per cent giving a positive answer. The same survey suggests that 74 per cent of the population support NATO. However, in what appears to be a contradictory finding, the survey concludes that a majority of 53 per cent back Georgia’s neutrality and think the country should keep out of all political and military alliances. “The survey on the public’s attitude towards ongoing processes in Georgia”  conducted with financial support from the Civil Society Fund and the UN Association of Georgia interviewed 2,000 adult respondents in Tbilisi and other cities, as well as in rural areas, using face-to-face interviews. The survey was conducted from January 18 to 30, 2025.

A public opinion survey conducted by the Institute for Social Research and Analysis (ISSA) indicates widespread support for Georgia’s accession to the EU amongst Georgians with 86 per cent giving a positive answer. The same survey suggests that 74 per cent of the population support NATO. However, in what appears to be a contradictory finding, the survey concludes that a majority of 53 per cent back Georgia’s neutrality and think the country should keep out of all political and military alliances. “The survey on the public’s attitude towards ongoing processes in Georgia”  conducted with financial support from the Civil Society Fund and the UN Association of Georgia interviewed 2,000 adult respondents in Tbilisi and other cities, as well as in rural areas, using face-to-face interviews. The survey was conducted from January 18 to 30, 2025.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry has declared the activities of both the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and Russian House illegal in the country giving equal treatment to both the U.S. and Russia in relation to the operations of significant soft power organisations for both countries. USAID’s closure comes after comments by U.S. President Donald Trump , who told reporters that USAID is “run by a bunch of radical lunatics” and that his administration is “dealing with the situation.” Speculation is growing in Washington about the possibility of integrating USAID into the U.S. State Department’s structure. On the other hand, by expelling Russian House, Azerbaijan appears to be pressuring Russia into admitting responsibility for the downing of an AZAL passenger plane.

The policy decisions made by the new President of the United States, Donald Trump, have triggered tectonic shifts in the international political order. The post-World War II, U.S.-led system is unraveling before our eyes, and paradoxically, this process has been accelerated by the United States itself. The new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, described the post-Cold War order, characterized by unipolarity, as an “anomaly” and stated, “It was a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually, you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world, with multiple great powers in different parts of the planet.” The United States appears to have abandoned its post-World War II role as the leader of the free world, established through Pax Americana and its commitment to providing security for allies in Europe, East Asia, and beyond.

In the midst of a political crisis, the Georgian government is pushing forward with a legislative package that would increase penalties for protest-related offences including years in prison in some cases.   Georgians have been rallying nightly since November, when the ruling Georgian Dream party, now in its fourth term in power, said it was suspending discussions related to membership in the European Union until 2028.

Russia has warned the Armenian government of severe economic consequences if it pursued plans to move towards membership of the European Union. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk insisted on Wednesday that the EU accession process will mark the beginning of Armenia’s withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic (EEU), a Russian-led trade bloc that gives Armenia tariff-free access to Russia’s vast market. “The outcome here is obvious: opening markets with the European Union will mean closing markets with the Eurasian Economic Union,” Russian news agencies quoted him as telling journalists.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Armenia has decided to adopt a foreign policy that is balanced between relations with the European Union and Russia. He added that balanced relations are also being created at the regional level notably with Iran, by establishing diplomatic relations with Turkey and concluding a peace deal with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan said this approach is not easy but also not impossible adding that Armenia is being transparent with all its international partners about its intentions. “Yes, we have decided to get closer to the European Union, but we are very intensively trying to share our position with Iran and Russia and with all our partners”, Pashinyan stated.

The EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Magdalena Grono paid her first official visits to Armenia and Azerbaijan from 7 to 11 January 2025. According to the official X account of the EUSR for the South Caucasus, valued in-depth exchanges of views were held with the leaderships and officials in both capitals on how best to advance peace, normalisation efforts and regional cooperation. The EU Special Representative also referred to the need to develop bilateral relations between the EU and the two countries. The EU Special Representative also stated she had exchanges with local civic societies but did not make specific references to any organisations.

The year 2025 marks a pivotal moment for Turkmenistan as it commemorates three decades of its established status as a neutral state, coinciding with the International Year of Peace and Trust – a worldwide initiative championed by Turkmenistan itself. This dual celebration underscores the nation’s enduring influence in fostering international peace, development, and diplomatic harmony.