Geostrategic Europe

Speaking at a press conference after the 4th Meeting of EU-Armenia Parliamentary Partnership Committee in Yerevan, MEP Nils Ušakovs said that the process of Armenia’s accession to the European Union will require significant reforms over a long time. Ušakovs, co-chair of the committee, said that the reforms will strengthen the country and enable it to make more confident decisions regarding its future.

The US has twice sided with Russia in votes at the United Nations to mark the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the Trump administration's change of stance on the war. First the US opposed a European-drafted resolution condemning Moscow's actions and supporting Ukraine's territorial integrity, voting the same way as Russia and countries including North Korea and Belarus at the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York. Then the US drafted and voted for a resolution at the UN Security Council which called for an end to the conflict but contained no criticism of Russia. The Security Council passed the resolution but two key US allies, the UK and France, abstained after their attempts to amend the wording were vetoed.

The Italian Senate has adopted a resolution supporting the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, calling on the government of Italy to strengthen its commitment for both countries to abandon the use of force in the future and maintain peaceful, constructive and open dialogue. The resolution titled ‘On Initiatives to Support the Peace Process Between Armenia and Azerbaijan’ was adopted unanimously on the 19th of February.

The occupation and ethnic cleansing of Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts in the early 1990s by the armed forces of Armenia involved immeasurable atrocities and extreme violence. Realizing that more than 700,000 people in the region would not easily flee their homes, Armenian leaders resorted to force. The ethnic cleansing carried out by the Armenian armed forces resulted in numerous humanitarian tragedies over the years, but the most devastating was the massacre of civilians in Khojaly, a town in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region, in the bitterly cold morning of February 26, 1992.

The United States and Russia agreed in Riyadh on Tuesday to press ahead with efforts to end the war in Ukraine, a US official said, as Kyiv and its European allies watched anxiously from the sidelines and Moscow raised a major new demand. US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said the two sides agreed to appoint "respective high-level teams to begin working on a path to ending the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible in a way that is enduring, sustainable, and acceptable to all sides".

A presidential election held this weekend in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia produced no clear winner, setting up a second round between the top two candidates. According to Abkhazia's electoral commission acting President Badra Gunba took 46per cent of the vote, while opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba received almost 37 per cent. The Election Commission confirmed  that Gunba, Moscow’s favourite candidate, failed to cross the threshold of 50 percent. The decisive second round featuring Gunba and Ardzinba is expected to be held by March 1. The EU reiterated its support for Georgia's territorial integrity and sovereignty in a statement saying it does not recognise the constitutional and legal framework in which the "so-called presidential elections in Abkhazia" took place.

Abkhazia, a territory that broke away from Georgia in 1993, is holding early presidential elections today following the ousting of the previous president, Aslan Bzhania, at the end of November 2024. The outcome of the elections could determine the future trajectory of the region’s foreign policy and its relationship to Moscow. Bzhamia was forced to resign after thousands of supporters of opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba forcibly occupied the presidential palace and parliament building. Ardzinba is contesting these elections with his main rival being former Vice President Badra Gunba who is supported by Moscow. According to pre-election polls, Gunba is projected to receive 42.3 percent of the vote, while Ardzinba is projected to receive just 27.3 percent of the vote. The other three candidates are Shamil Ardzinba, Oleg Bartsits, and Adgur Khurkhumal.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has told Washington's NATO allies that they would have to step up and assume greater responsibility for Europe's security since the U.S. no longer remains "primarily focused on the security of Europe". He said "stark strategic realities", such as U.S. border security issues and threats posed by China are a greater priority. Hegseth also said that a return to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders was unrealistic and the Trump administration does not see NATO membership for Kyiv as part of a solution to the war triggered by Russia's invasion.

A public opinion survey conducted by the Institute for Social Research and Analysis (ISSA) indicates widespread support for Georgia’s accession to the EU amongst Georgians with 86 per cent giving a positive answer. The same survey suggests that 74 per cent of the population support NATO. However, in what appears to be a contradictory finding, the survey concludes that a majority of 53 per cent back Georgia’s neutrality and think the country should keep out of all political and military alliances. “The survey on the public’s attitude towards ongoing processes in Georgia”  conducted with financial support from the Civil Society Fund and the UN Association of Georgia interviewed 2,000 adult respondents in Tbilisi and other cities, as well as in rural areas, using face-to-face interviews. The survey was conducted from January 18 to 30, 2025.