Geostrategic Europe

Depending on whom you ask, last week’s meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Abu Dhabi was either a historic development or simply another routine step in the still-fragile peace process. In an interview with Slovak media prior to the talks last week, Azerbaijani presidential advisor Hikmet Hajiyev even claimed the conflict between the sides is now over. Both sides believed that they were now the closest to formalising a peace treaty than at any time before.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are meeting on Thursday 10 July in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, to discuss the next steps in finalising the peace agreement, their offices have confirmed to international news agencies. This is the first formal bilateral meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan since they agreed on the draft text of the peace agreement, following nearly four decades of conflict. The results of this meeting will shape the future of the South Caucasus and how the two countries can live peacefully next to each other after decades of conflict.

In Mackinder’s terminology, Eurasia is the heartland of geopolitics and the South Caucasus, though small in economic terms compared to the surrounding major powers, constitutes the heart of that heartland. No major power can afford to ignore or neglect it. Strategically located at the crossroads of East and West and being the only region that borders two most controversial actors of Eurasia (Russia and Iran), control over the South Caucasus equates to control over a vital part of the Eurasian continent. This is why the region’s geopolitical orientation carries immense significance, particularly amid the evolving landscape of international relations shaped by the war in Ukraine and the recent escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel in the southern neighborhood. Today, the geopolitics of the South Caucasus is in flux, and most importantly, this transition has now reached to the most important nation-state of the region: Azerbaijan.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas has ended her official visit to Armenia after signing a partnership agreement with authorities in Yerevan. Following talks with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, a joint press conference was held in which the media was briefed about an agreement outlining Armenia’s participation in the European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy crisis management operations. According to Kallas, the document envisions Armenia’s participation in EU missions around the world.

A Russia-appointed official in Ukraine’s occupied Luhansk region was quoted by AP on Monday saying that Moscow’s forces have overrun all of it, one of four regions Russia annexed from Ukraine in September 2022. If confirmed, it would make Luhansk the first Ukrainian region fully occupied by Russia after more than three years of war with international peace efforts led by the US failing to make progress on halting the fighting. Russian President Vladimir Putin has effectively rejected a ceasefire and hasn’t budged from his demands, which include Moscow’s control over the four illegally annexed regions. 

On July 1, Denmark takes over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union for the eighth time. Under the motto ‘A Strong Europe in a Changing World’, the Danish Presidency said its programme of work will ensure that the EU takes responsibility for its own security, while also strengthening its competitiveness. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that priority will be given to boosting defence capabilities in Europe amid Russia's war in Ukraine and US threats to Greenland, a Danish autonomous territory. Pushing countries to keep promises to boost defence spending and bolstering Europe's "dangerous" security will top Denmark’s agenda as it takes over the rotating presidency on Tuesday, according to Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.

NATO summits are usually orderly affairs, prepared well in advance, and an opportunity for the partners in the military alliance to show unity and resolve. The forthcoming Nato Summit in The Hague, on Tuesday and Wednesday, 24 and 25 June is different. As the BBC put it, there will be 32 leaders from Europe and North America present, but “only one man matters  - NATO's summit is all about Trump”. With three wars on its borders, NATO needed a good summit in The Hague. Whilst managing Mr Trump, the 31 other leaders in The Hague need to think of the future.

Russian President Vladimir Putin offered Wednesday to help mediate an end to the conflict between Israel and Iran, suggesting Moscow could help negotiate a settlement that could allow Tehran to pursue a peaceful atomic program while assuaging Israeli security concerns, AP reported. Speaking to senior news leaders of international news agencies on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin noted that “it’s a delicate issue,” but added that “in my view, a solution could be found.” Meanwhile, Iran launched a fresh salvo of missiles at Israel on Thursday, with a hospital reported hit, as US President Donald Trump warned he was weighing US military action in the conflict.

The European Union should harden its stance against Israel and follow in the footsteps of the United Kingdom and other Western allies by issuing sanctions against far-right members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Cabinet, Sweden’s foreign minister told Politico. Maria Malmer Stenergard said after meeting in Brussels with Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, that the EU now needs to take a stronger position and increase pressure on the Israeli government.