Geostrategic Europe

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen gave her annual "State of the Union" speech to the European Parliament on Thursday (17 September). The speech was visionary in its scope and ambitious in what it seeks to achieve. But many who are familiar with the Brussels bureaucracy do not think that the system that von der Leyen heads, has the stamina, flexibility or even the will to deliver. Von der Leyen did not mince her words. Her opening statement laid out the vision and the ambition "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.' This is how Charles Dickens describes Europe in the days of the French Revolution. And it is also a fair description of the world we live in. The speed of change is incredible. The challenges exceptional. So if I look at Europe today, my take is this: the state of our Union is the strongest it has ever been. The state of our Union can also feel as precarious as it has ever been." Von der Leyen said she would propose a new security forum, A European Security Council, for EU and like-minded leaders in response to escalating Russian hybrid attacks and fraying transatlantic relations, with Canada, Ukraine, Norway, and the U.K. also be invited to join. Putting her point of view to the European Parliament, and being honest about the challenges ahead, was an important challenge. More difficult is the challenge that von der Leyen has, to convince the bureaucracy in the EU instituions in Brussels of the challenges ahead, and of the need to change and adapt to the new realities. This bureaucracy has often failed to deliver. Its too caught in its own labyrinth and comfort zone; has a problem with engaging with both EU citizens and the wider world; lacks the readiness to learn from its own mistakes, partly because of a flawed institutional memory, and is too slow to adjust. Von der Leyen has tried to fix some of these probelms, but with limited success. She needs to try harder! (click image to read the editorial comment in full)

The Arctic summit of European leaders will be held in Rovaniemi, a municipality in Northern Finland on 13–14 September. Prime Minister Petteri Orpo has invited a group of EU leaders to the summit. The aim of the summit is to strengthen the EU’s common strategic approach to the Arctic region as its geopolitical significance continues to grow rapidly. “The Arctic region is an increasingly important part of Europe's security environment. The European Union has direct interests in its stability, security and sustainable development. It is very valuable to be able to discuss these issues together with a comprehensive group of EU leaders,” said Orpo. The summit will be attended by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Prime Minister of Poland Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Estonia Kristen Michal, Prime Minister of Latvia Andris Kulbergs, President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda and President of Romania Nicușor Dan. President of the European Council António Costa and High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas will also take part in the summit. The summit is taking place against an extremely dynamic backdrop. In the face of accelerating climate change and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the economic importance of the northeast passage is growing. For 2026, more than forty million tonnes of freight are expected to pass through the Northern Sea Route for the first time, primarily due to expanded trade between Russia and China. Furthermore, in August, China launched its first regular container service through the Arctic. Finally, the EU’s Arctic policy itself is set for a reorientation: the Commission intends to present an updated Arctic strategy this autumn, in which security is to play a central role for the first time. Kaja Kallas had already advocated for this at the Arctic Frontiers conference in Tromsø earlier this year, stating that the Arctic needed more attention, more resources, and more hard power. The summit in Rovaniemi can therefore also be seen as a dress rehearsal for the new strategy. Finland brings a unique perspective to this debate: over 95 per cent of Finland’s foreign trade in goods is conducted by sea, and its ports freeze over almost every winter. This structural peculiarity has given rise to a strong export sector in the field of icebreakers: Finnish companies have designed around 80 per cent of all icebreakers worldwide and built around 60 per cent; even the US Coast Guard is having the first vessels of its new Arctic Security Cutter class built in Finland because the domestic alternative could not meet the schedule. The fact that this leverage can also be utilised geopolitically has already been successfully demonstrated. At the end of September 2022, the Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs refused to grant an export licence for an LNG icebreaker ordered by the Russian mining group Norilsk Nickel, thereby bringing to an end a project that would have created around 2,100 person-years of employment. (click the image to read more).