Geostrategic Europe

The policy decisions made by the new President of the United States, Donald Trump, have triggered tectonic shifts in the international political order. The post-World War II, U.S.-led system is unraveling before our eyes, and paradoxically, this process has been accelerated by the United States itself. The new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, described the post-Cold War order, characterized by unipolarity, as an “anomaly” and stated, “It was a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually, you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world, with multiple great powers in different parts of the planet.” The United States appears to have abandoned its post-World War II role as the leader of the free world, established through Pax Americana and its commitment to providing security for allies in Europe, East Asia, and beyond.

In the midst of a political crisis, the Georgian government is pushing forward with a legislative package that would increase penalties for protest-related offences including years in prison in some cases.   Georgians have been rallying nightly since November, when the ruling Georgian Dream party, now in its fourth term in power, said it was suspending discussions related to membership in the European Union until 2028.

Russia has warned the Armenian government of severe economic consequences if it pursued plans to move towards membership of the European Union. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk insisted on Wednesday that the EU accession process will mark the beginning of Armenia’s withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic (EEU), a Russian-led trade bloc that gives Armenia tariff-free access to Russia’s vast market. “The outcome here is obvious: opening markets with the European Union will mean closing markets with the Eurasian Economic Union,” Russian news agencies quoted him as telling journalists.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Armenia has decided to adopt a foreign policy that is balanced between relations with the European Union and Russia. He added that balanced relations are also being created at the regional level notably with Iran, by establishing diplomatic relations with Turkey and concluding a peace deal with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan said this approach is not easy but also not impossible adding that Armenia is being transparent with all its international partners about its intentions. “Yes, we have decided to get closer to the European Union, but we are very intensively trying to share our position with Iran and Russia and with all our partners”, Pashinyan stated.

The EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Magdalena Grono paid her first official visits to Armenia and Azerbaijan from 7 to 11 January 2025. According to the official X account of the EUSR for the South Caucasus, valued in-depth exchanges of views were held with the leaderships and officials in both capitals on how best to advance peace, normalisation efforts and regional cooperation. The EU Special Representative also referred to the need to develop bilateral relations between the EU and the two countries. The EU Special Representative also stated she had exchanges with local civic societies but did not make specific references to any organisations.

The year 2025 marks a pivotal moment for Turkmenistan as it commemorates three decades of its established status as a neutral state, coinciding with the International Year of Peace and Trust – a worldwide initiative championed by Turkmenistan itself. This dual celebration underscores the nation’s enduring influence in fostering international peace, development, and diplomatic harmony.

Armenia's government has approved legislation calling for the country to launch the process that will open the path to discussions with Brussels for eventual membership in the European Union. A bill was drafted in response to a petition that called for the country to submit an application to join the EU. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan emphasised to the cabinet on Thursday that the public should not expect a rapid accession to the EU, and that it would in any case require public approval. “Adopting the law doesn’t literally mean Armenia is joining the EU because that cannot be done through a law or government decision, the decision on that can only be made through a referendum,” Pashinyan said after the decision.

Poland on Wednesday(1 January) took over the Presidency of The European Union for a period of six months ending a stormy six month Hungarian presidency that often left the member states dismayed, frustrated and angry. Poland is ready to lead Europe towards security and economic competitiveness, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in Brussels just before Christmas. Coming after Hungary the Polish presidency is a symbol of change and great hope of the entire EU for a democratic and secure future of the continent.  Summing up the Polish ambitions prime minister Tusk said I would very much like Poles, to give faith to the whole of Europe that a Europe free from corruption, free from threats, confident in its own strengths, helping those who need help, but also thinking very pragmatically about its own interests is possible. The Hungarian presidency of the Council of the EU began with an unexpected visit by Prime Minister Victor Orban to Moscow and ended with, among other things, a declaration of Hungary's lack of support for the extension of sanctions against Russia.

On December 30, Germany’s Der Spiegel, a publication often perceived as critical and biased against Azerbaijan – similar to many other German media outlets – reported on Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s reaction to Russia’s handling of a recent airplane crash crisis between the two countries. The publication noted, “Aliyev’s reaction is a testament to the increased weight of his country.” It continued, “Aliyev called the previous statements from the Russian side ‘nonsensical,’ ‘absurd,’ and ‘stupid.’ He spoke of attempts to cover up the situation and made it clear that with his apology, Putin had fulfilled only one of several conditions that Baku had demanded of Moscow.”