South Caucasus

A presidential election held this weekend in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia produced no clear winner, setting up a second round between the top two candidates. According to Abkhazia's electoral commission acting President Badra Gunba took 46per cent of the vote, while opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba received almost 37 per cent. The Election Commission confirmed  that Gunba, Moscow’s favourite candidate, failed to cross the threshold of 50 percent. The decisive second round featuring Gunba and Ardzinba is expected to be held by March 1. The EU reiterated its support for Georgia's territorial integrity and sovereignty in a statement saying it does not recognise the constitutional and legal framework in which the "so-called presidential elections in Abkhazia" took place.

Abkhazia, a territory that broke away from Georgia in 1993, is holding early presidential elections today following the ousting of the previous president, Aslan Bzhania, at the end of November 2024. The outcome of the elections could determine the future trajectory of the region’s foreign policy and its relationship to Moscow. Bzhamia was forced to resign after thousands of supporters of opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba forcibly occupied the presidential palace and parliament building. Ardzinba is contesting these elections with his main rival being former Vice President Badra Gunba who is supported by Moscow. According to pre-election polls, Gunba is projected to receive 42.3 percent of the vote, while Ardzinba is projected to receive just 27.3 percent of the vote. The other three candidates are Shamil Ardzinba, Oleg Bartsits, and Adgur Khurkhumal.

The European Parliament adopted a resolution on Thursday regarding the political crisis in Georgia with 400 votes in favour, 63 against and 81 abstentions. The resolution called for sanctions against former Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, his associates, government officials and media figures linked to the ruling Georgian Dream party, while urging the EU to withhold recognition of the current government and call for new elections.

Azerbaijan has filed a lawsuit against Armenia in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague over what it says is evidence of extensive environmental destruction in areas of Azerbaijan once controlled by Yerevan. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Thursday that Armenia had engaged in "widespread deforestation, environmentally unsustainable logging, mining, and construction of hydropower plants" in regions Baku retook from Armenia following a series of wars stretching back to the late 1980s. The affected areas include the Basut-Chay State Reserve, a protected forested zone near Azerbaijan's southern border, home to the rare Oriental plane tree.

A public opinion survey conducted by the Institute for Social Research and Analysis (ISSA) indicates widespread support for Georgia’s accession to the EU amongst Georgians with 86 per cent giving a positive answer. The same survey suggests that 74 per cent of the population support NATO. However, in what appears to be a contradictory finding, the survey concludes that a majority of 53 per cent back Georgia’s neutrality and think the country should keep out of all political and military alliances. “The survey on the public’s attitude towards ongoing processes in Georgia”  conducted with financial support from the Civil Society Fund and the UN Association of Georgia interviewed 2,000 adult respondents in Tbilisi and other cities, as well as in rural areas, using face-to-face interviews. The survey was conducted from January 18 to 30, 2025.

A public opinion survey conducted by the Institute for Social Research and Analysis (ISSA) indicates widespread support for Georgia’s accession to the EU amongst Georgians with 86 per cent giving a positive answer. The same survey suggests that 74 per cent of the population support NATO. However, in what appears to be a contradictory finding, the survey concludes that a majority of 53 per cent back Georgia’s neutrality and think the country should keep out of all political and military alliances. “The survey on the public’s attitude towards ongoing processes in Georgia”  conducted with financial support from the Civil Society Fund and the UN Association of Georgia interviewed 2,000 adult respondents in Tbilisi and other cities, as well as in rural areas, using face-to-face interviews. The survey was conducted from January 18 to 30, 2025.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry has declared the activities of both the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and Russian House illegal in the country giving equal treatment to both the U.S. and Russia in relation to the operations of significant soft power organisations for both countries. USAID’s closure comes after comments by U.S. President Donald Trump , who told reporters that USAID is “run by a bunch of radical lunatics” and that his administration is “dealing with the situation.” Speculation is growing in Washington about the possibility of integrating USAID into the U.S. State Department’s structure. On the other hand, by expelling Russian House, Azerbaijan appears to be pressuring Russia into admitting responsibility for the downing of an AZAL passenger plane.

The High Representative and Vice-President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas, and Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said in a statement on Friday that the Georgian Dream authorities have taken “further steps away from democratic standards” and called on them to “release all journalists, activists and political detainees.” The statement by Kallas and Kos says that the rushed adoption of amendments to the Code on Administrative Offences, Criminal Code and the Law on Assemblies and Manifestations by Georgian Dream will have far-reaching effects on Georgian society and will significantly undermine the rights to freedom of expression, freedom of assembly, and media freedom.

The policy decisions made by the new President of the United States, Donald Trump, have triggered tectonic shifts in the international political order. The post-World War II, U.S.-led system is unraveling before our eyes, and paradoxically, this process has been accelerated by the United States itself. The new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, described the post-Cold War order, characterized by unipolarity, as an “anomaly” and stated, “It was a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually, you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world, with multiple great powers in different parts of the planet.” The United States appears to have abandoned its post-World War II role as the leader of the free world, established through Pax Americana and its commitment to providing security for allies in Europe, East Asia, and beyond.