South Caucasus

As diplomatic efforts to resolve the long-running conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan once again make headlines, the real challenge lies not in high-level meetings or momentary gestures, but in the unfortunate disconnect between the elites and the populations they represent. For almost thirty years, press release after press release declared that talks inched towards peace. Hopes were premature. The sides will next month mark the anniversary of the last war fought five years ago.

US President Donald Trump's administration is actively discussing with Azerbaijan the possibility of bringing that nation and some Central Asian allies into the Abraham Accords, hoping to deepen their existing ties with Israel, according to five sources with knowledge of the matter who spoke to Reuters. As part of the Abraham Accords, inked in 2020 and 2021 during Trump's first term in office, four Muslim-majority countries agreed to normalise diplomatic relations with Israel after U.S. mediation.

Azerbaijan and Armenia are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding in Washington on Friday 8 August, committing to the pursuit of peace, according to regional sources who spoke to Middle East Eye (MEE). The move commits the two countries to a future peace deal amid increasing US influence in the South Caucasus. The sources said that US President Donald Trump will host Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the White House for the signing ceremony.

In July 2025, Armenia officially applied to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), marking a significant step, underscoring its commitment to a diversified foreign policy amidst shifting regional dynamics. In this analysis, Johnny Melikian, Senior Research Fellow at Orbelli Centre in Yerevan, discusses the reasons behind Armenia's move. This application is more than a simple institutional maneuver, he argues; “it encapsulates Yerevan’s strategic search for geopolitical stability, economic partnerships, and regional relevance in an increasingly complex Eurasian theater.” As Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed during a press conference on July 16, the move reflects Armenia’s pursuit of a balanced and balancing foreign policy amidst shifting global and regional dynamics.

Uncertainty has again emerged along the Armenia-Iran border as the risk of the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan turning into further geopolitical competition continues. What was once a post-war localised disagreement over territory and sovereignty is now entangled in a web of regional interests and strategic manoeuvring. Increasingly, peace risks being shaped less by the needs of local populations but more by the calculations of distant capitals. External interference has rather delayed progress almost five years since the 2020 war. If peace is the objective, then the region needs inclusive not selective diplomacy and definitely not new geopolitical fault lines.

A Syrian-Israeli ministerial meeting is taking place on Thursday 31 July in Baku to discuss security matters in southern Syria, a diplomat told AFP. The meeting between Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer follows a similar meeting between the two ministers in Paris last week. It will take place after an unprecedented visit by al-Shaibani to Moscow on Thursday, added the diplomat, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. Israel and Syria have technically been at war since 1948.

For the first time in 31 years of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the situation feels more unpredictable than ever. In the past, there was a grim certainty that another war would erupt just as it did in September 2020 while peace, on the other hand, always seemed distant. In recent weeks, comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that it was almost a done deal simply solicited disagreement among analysts and political commentators.  As if that wasn’t confusion enough, and although both Baku and Yerevan have said that the 10 July meeting between the leaders in Abu Dhabi was constructive, another issue has emerged unexpectedly to distract and deflect attention.