South Caucasus

Speaking to media on the sidelines of the Global Baku Forum, Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov unexpectedly announced that the text of the Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan had been finalised. Made up of 17 points, two of which had not until now been agreed, the news came like a bolt out of the blue. As was already known, those last points concerned withdrawing international court cases against each other and not deploying third country forces on their common border.

Speaking at the 12th Global Baku Forum, the former President of the European Council, Charles Michel warned that a potential trade war could stem from events originating in the White House but Europe must remain focused on further strengthening its economy. He also highlighted that the US plays an important role in Europe's security and that more investment should be made in institutional development. The Global Baku Forum is organized by the Nizami Ganjavi International Center under the patronage of Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev.

Mozambique and Georgia have held elections on the 9th of October and 26th of October 2024 respectively. Despite the high demand for change in the political status quo, the incumbent parties in both countries – the Frente de Libertacao de Mocambique (FREMILO) and the Georgian Dream – have been elected again pushing civil society organisation to call out flawed elections.  Both countries have been plunged into protests ever since.

A court in Georgia on Wednesday convicted imprisoned former president Mikheil Saakashvili on embezzlement charges and handed him another prison term of nine years. Saakashvili, who served as Georgia’s president in 2004-13, is already serving a six-year prison term for abuse of power. He was convicted in absentia in 2018, and arrested in 2021 upon his return to Georgia.

Upon visiting Karabakh in 1994, there were two possible routes for my return to Yerevan. The first was the same way I arrived by military helicopter, and the second was by road. With no highway in place at the time, that would take longer and prove more challenging. Even if the helicopter on the way to Karabakh had to perform an evasive manoeuvre when the pilot was informed of Azerbaijani activity in the area, it was by far the quickest and made the journey in under 45 minutes rather than an estimated 12 hours by road. I had spent less than three hours in Yerevan upon arrival from London and over a week in Karabakh. A few days would barely be enough for meetings with Vazgen Sargsyan in Yerevan and the Locum Tenens Catholicos in Etchmiadzin. I also had to meet Seta Melkonian, recently widowed wife of Monte, and two local journalists reporting on the conflict.

Prominent Azerbaijani opposition politician Tofig Yagublu has been sentenced to nine years in prison by the Baku Serious Crimes Court on charges of “fraud resulting in substantial harm”. A member of the National Council of Democrat Forces and Musavat Party, he was arrested in December 2023 and was also charged with using forged documents. During the trial, Yagublu insisted his arrest was politically motivated. His co-defendant, Elnur Mamedov, who provided incriminating testimony, was sentenced to eight years in prison.

An organised network operating from Georgia has scammed thousands of savers from the UK, Europe and Canada out of $35m after they fell for fake celebrity adverts on Facebook and Google. According to a report in The Guardian, Deepfake videos and fictional news reports featuring the money expert Martin Lewis, the radio DJ Zoe Ball and the adventurer Ben Fogle were used to promote fraudulent cryptocurrency and other investment schemes. The scammers are understood to have still been contacting victims in recent weeks.

Even though many believed a second Trump presidency was unlikely or even impossible, his re-election last November demonstrated how many people prefer to favour dreams over reality, transforming fears into self-fulfilling prophecies. This is a situation that can best describe how Track II diplomacy in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has been conducted over time. As a result, there is little to no agreement between the sides, the blatantly obvious is ignored, and meetings become performative at best or simply a continuation of the conflict at worst.

The trials of former Armenian separatist leaders in Baku mark a long-overdue moment of accountability for decades of aggression, occupation, and destruction in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan. The proceedings in the Baku Military Court are more than a legal exercise – they are a public affirmation of Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over its internationally recognized territory, a sovereignty that Armenia sought to undermine for over 30 years through both overt and covert support for the separatist regime. Courtroom testimonies of the former separatist leaders have reinforced what Azerbaijan has long maintained: Armenia was not a bystander but the architect of the separatist military apparatus that inflicted immense suffering on Azerbaijanis.