EU plus

Political uncertainty in France and an EU trade dispute with China are casting a shadow over European corporate earnings, investors say, despite forecasts pointing to better corporate results. According to LSEG I/B/E/S equity research, second-quarter earnings for companies in the pan-European STOXX 600 index are expected to rise by 2%, with revenues up 1.7%. This would be the first quarter of growth since early 2023. Investors had been optimistic about Europe's stock markets as the European Central Bank adopted a looser policy and the economic outlook improved. However, French President Emmanuel Macron's unexpected decision to call a general election has raised doubts.

The 32 NATO countries have officially elected outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte as the next Secretary General of the transatlantic military alliance. NATO made the announcement on Wednesday (26 June). Rutte will take over when current NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg completes his final term on 1 October 2024.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant on Tuesday (25 June) for former Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. He is suspected of being responsible for attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine between October 2022 and March 2023. An arrest warrant has also been issued for Valery Gerasimov, commander-in-chief of the Russian army.

The Council of the European Union on Monday (24 June) adopted a 14th package of economic and individual restrictive measures against Russia, "dealing a further blow to the Putin regime and those who perpetuate its illegal, unprovoked and unjustified war of aggression against Ukraine". These measures are designed to target high-value sectors of the Russian economy, such as energy, finance and trade, and make it increasingly difficult to evade EU sanctions.

Proposed European Union tariffs on Chinese goods are not a "punishment", German Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action Robert Habeck assured Chinese officials in Beijing on Saturday (22 June). The visit is the first by a senior European official since Brussels proposed significant tariffs on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs) in response to what the EU sees as excessive subsidies. Ahead of Habeck's arrival, China warned that rising tensions over EVs could spark a trade war. "It is important to understand that these are not punitive tariffs," Habeck told the opening session of a dialogue on climate and transformation. He stressed that unlike the US, Brazil and Turkey, which have used punitive tariffs, the EU is taking a different approach.

On Thursday (20 June), EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra visited Azerbaijan as part of the preparations for COP29, which will be hosted by Baku in November 2024. He held several high-level bilateral meetings with government officials in Baku: Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources Mukhtar Babayev, Minister of Energy Parviz Shahbazov and Minister of Foreign Affairs Jeyhun Bayramov. Commissioner Hoekstra also met with representatives of civil society.

The European Union is poised to impose significant new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), a move expected to raise more than €2 billion a year despite warnings from Germany about the potential economic impact. Brussels is determined to impose additional tariffs of up to 25% on these imports from next month, arguing that subsidies given to Chinese EV manufacturers allow them to unfairly undercut European competitors. The decision has sparked controversy, particularly in Germany, where there are fears of sparking a trade war with China, the EU's biggest trading partner.

On Tuesday (11 June), climate change envoys and representatives from 23 Allied nations met for the first time in Reykjavik, Iceland, to discuss how to further enhance cooperation in understanding and adapting to climate change's security implications.

Doctors Without Borders, known by its French initials MSF, has reported the recovery of 11 bodies and the rescue of dozens of people off the coast of Libya. The organisation criticised the migration policies of Libya and European countries. In a statement on Friday (7 June), MSF said its Geo Barents rescue ship had recovered the bodies after a search lasting more than nine hours. The operation was launched after an alert from the German NGO Sea-Watch, which also assists refugees and migrants. "Although the cause of this tragedy remains unknown, it is clear that people will continue to undertake dangerous journeys in their desperate search for safety. Europe must create safe and legal routes for them," MSF said in a post on X. "This catastrophe must end!"