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Monday Commentary: 2025 was a momentous year for the South Caucasus

Monday Commentary: 2025 was a momentous year for the South Caucasus

The year 2025 has ended up being a momentous year for the South Caucasus, writes Dennis Sammut in his Monday Commentary. Armenia-Azerbaijan relations have been redefined, with consequences for the whole region and beyond. That huge development overshadowed key moments in the domestic trajectory of the two countries, which however have deep consequences for the two countries, and even beyond. It has also been a tumultuous year for Georgia too. The country has been gripped in a political crisis throughout 2025, with no obvious end in sight. Whatever the domestic arguments, on the international stage Georgia is today a shadow of what it used to be until recently. It not only has lost the chance of joining the European Union any time soon, but it has also lost its position as the leading South Caucasus country. Today, in the new reality of the region, it lags as a tired third. Important as 2025 was, it ended with a lot of unfinished business. So 2026 will also be crucial for the three countries. Since regaining its statehood in 1991 after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Armenia-Azerbaijan relations have been defined by war. The two fought open wars, wars of attrition, and propaganda wars, incessantly. Tens of thousands of people lost their lives, and hundreds of thousands were displaced. Many had lost hope that the two could try the alternative – i.e. peaceful co-existence. Yet in 2025 they were proven wrong.

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The imminent threat of war in Europe

The imminent threat of war in Europe

The United States has called on all its citizens in Ukraine to leave the country before Monday, as war in Europe now appears imminent. Unofficial American sources say it is possible the Russian invasion of Ukraine will start on Wednesday, 16 February. The UK, the Netherlands and Latvia are among the countries that have also told their citizens in Ukraine to leave immediately. The EU has told its non-essential staff in Kyiv to leave also.
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Russia increases naval pressure against Ukraine

Russia increases naval pressure against Ukraine

Russian military warships are preparing for military drills in the Black Sea.  Six Russian warships sailed from the Mediterranean Sea through the Bosphorus onto the Black Sea earlier this week. They will join other elements of the Russian Black Sea Fleet based in Russian occupied Crimea. The drills will partially close parts of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, effectively cutting parts of Ukraine off from open waters