Diplomacy

The Nato Summit held in The Hague on 24-25 June was a failure, wrapped in success. It was a success because it avoided public display of divisions, mainly by avoiding issues: it was the shortest summit anyone can remember; it also had a very short final statement that basically had two points, the first a re-commitment to article 5 of the North Atlantic Charter and the principle that an attack on one will be considered an attack on all. The fact that Nato leaders in the Hague had felt the need to re-emphasise this should be a cause of worry not celebration, but in the end, it is good that it was said. The second outcome, the one that received most attention, was the commitment of European countries to spend more on their defence: 5 per cent of GDP, of which 3.5 per cent on hard defence, and 1.5 per cent on related ancillary areas such as infrastructure. You may, if you want, believe that this was a response to US President Donald Trump's insistence. Or, if you are more prudent, understand that countries that matter – Germany, France, Poland and the Scandinavian countries had decided on this course of action quite separately, and as a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which was a wake-up call. Finland and Sweden’s decision to abandon their neutrality, and join NATO was taken long before Trump returned to the White House. The EU’s decision to spend massively on defence was always to ensure that other European countries are part of this process, willy-nilly.

Tensions between the two countries continue to rise. Cambodia has accused Thailand of exacerbating the conflict by closing almost all border crossings. This has made it virtually impossible for tourists to enter or leave the country by land.

Hours after US President Donald Trump said his ceasefire had taken effect, Israel said it intercepted two Iranian missiles, with Defence Minister Israel Katz vowing that the military would "respond forcefully". Israel had stated on Tuesday it agreed to Trump's declaration of a ceasefire with Iran, adding that it had achieved all its objectives in the 12-day war with its arch-enemy. According to AFP, Iran denied launching missiles at Israel after the ceasefire announcement, and said it had "compelled" Israel to "unilaterally halt its aggression", while stopping short of officially accepting the ceasefire plan.

​​​​​​​Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares will ask EU ministers in Brussels to suspend the agreement with Israel with immediate effect. According to Albares, "The time for words and statements is over", and he added that "The Palestinians in Gaza have no time to lose."

Pashinyan's official visit to Türkiye on June 20, 2025, marks a strategic shift from symbolic reconciliation to strategic rapprochement. Normalisation, for Yerevan, is not an end in itself but a transformative initiative to put an end to Armenia's geopolitical isolation, to diversify its transit routes, to decrease its reliance on Russia and to get access to Turkish ports, measures that reorient Armenia economically and logistically toward the West. Türkiye, on its part, is seizing the moment to strengthen its role as a regional intermediary. Consequently, by promoting normalisation, Ankara solidifies its impact in the South Caucasus and sends a positive signal to Western partners: the EU and U.S., in particular, about its evolving role in the region's stabilisation.