Diplomacy

The recent BRICS summit held on 22-24 October in the Russian city of Kazan, featured the first talks in the last few months between the Azerbaijani and Armenian leadership. The countries were represented by President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan as well as the foreign ministers, Bayramov and Mirzoyan. Pashinyan declared that at the moment “all the matters of principles have been addressed and resolved” by the draft treaty, although Armenia’s chief diplomat Mirzoyan toned his statement a bit down, claiming that the document “is at least 80-90% agreed upon”.

With the conclusion of the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 in Azerbaijan, discussions with Armenia on normalising relations are expected to resume in December. However, it remains uncertain whether an agreement will be reached anytime soon, as past attempts to finalise talks have consistently fallen short. That said, there may now be some clarity regarding the three key issues believed to be preventing a breakthrough. In early November, Farid Shafiyev, Chair of the Centre for Analysis of International Relations (AIR) in Azerbaijan, shared on X what he claims are the specific points left unresolved.

China is a relatively new player in the South Caucasus but has growing interests, particularly in the economic domain. While Beijing established diplomatic ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in the early 1990s, it largely stayed out of the region’s geopolitics. Armenia acquired Chinese-made WM-80 multiple-launch systems in 1999, but they had little impact on the military balance with Azerbaijan. Chinese economic ties with the South Caucasus began to grow in the early 2000s, driven by the rapid expansion of its economy. Interest in the region deepened after President Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, with the South Caucasus envisioned as a potential land route connecting China to Europe.

November marks the fourth anniversary of the end of the 2020 Karabakh war. It was also the month considered as an informal deadline for initialling or signing some kind of document ending the conflict between Yerevan and Baku or at least a joint statement cementing points agreed in peace talks to date. Instead, having failed to do so by the time of this month's United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 in Baku, and with Yerevan effectively shunning the event, Azerbaijan says that negotiations will now resume in December. As usual, Azerbaijan says Armenia must change its constitution. Armenia refuses to do so – or at least not until other constitutional changes are put to referendum still most likely in 2027. 

As the sun sets over the Caspian Sea, the world turns its gaze to the Azerbaijani capital for the United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29). This year, Baku isn't just a geographical meeting point; it's a symbolic crossroads where nations must decide our planet's future. At the same time, Azerbaijan finds itself at the intersection of traditional energy systems and climate imperatives. While slow progress in the transition away from fossil fuels is due to increased energy demand from a growing economy and population, the importance of COP29 cannot be overstated - it is a destiny date for climate action.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met in Berlin today to discuss their vision for the future of Europe in light of the recent US presidential election, which Donald Trump claimed victory in. The meeting underlined their commitment to steer Europe towards greater unity, resilience and sovereignty amid evolving global dynamics.

On Monday (28 October), Azerbaijan held a meeting in Baku with NATO's Climate and Energy Security Sector representatives from the Innovation, Hybrid Issues and Cybersecurity Division and representatives from NATO member and partner countries to discuss energy security and climate change. 

Since 7 October 2023, when Hamas killed 1,139 innocent civilians in Israel, the Israeli government has been conducting military operations in the Gaza Strip that have taken the lives of 43,552 Palestinians. As the death toll of Palestinians is increasing, the UN General Assembly has asked the International Court of Justice to give an advisory opinion on Israel’s military operations in Palestine. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague issued an advisory opinion on 19th July 2024, stating that Israel’s continued presence in the occupied Palestinian territory is illegal under International Law. The ICJ also argued that states must not assist via financial, military or political aid to the Israeli government in maintaining its unlawful occupation (para. 273-279). It is important to note that although advisory opinions are not binding on states, they carry great legal weight by clarifying the application of international law and having moral authority. 

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev exchanged brief words during a plenary session at the BRICS summit in Kazan.