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Conflict and Peace

Stories related to violent conflicts, diplomatic tensions, and conflict prevention, mediation and resolution.

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Opinion
Opinion: The US strikes Venezuela, Consequences for Ukraine and Europe

Opinion: The US strikes Venezuela, Consequences for Ukraine and Europe

This is a Flash Analysis published on 3 January 2026 by the European Policy Centre in Brussels. Chris Kremidas-Courtney is a Senior Visiting Fellow at the European Policy Centre. As 2026 barely takes its first breath, we are already drifting back into an age where great powers manage their own neighbourhoods and look away from everyone else’s. It’s a world order that prizes control over legitimacy and stability over justice until neither one survives. The most immediate consequence of the US strike on Venezuela may be felt not in Latin America, but first in Ukraine. As foreshadowed in the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy, Washington is intent on rooting its power firmly in the Western Hemisphere while potentially leaving Russia and China greater freedom of action in their ‘backyards’. Seen through this lens, the strike on Venezuela looks more like part of a broader reversion to regional spheres of influence. The emerging message is that the United States will enforce primacy close to home but its willingness to underwrite security beyond its hemisphere is increasingly transactional and politically fragile. This is a 21st century version of the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, in which US hemispheric dominance was paired with strategic disengagement from Europe’s wars. It is also the world Putin has long argued for. It is hard to see an upside for Europe, but there may be one small silver lining. Prior to the strike, Caracas had been demonstrating how a sanctioned regime could survive and adapt by embedding itself into alternative economic and financial networks backed by China, Russia and Iran. That resilience was undermining the credibility of sanctions as a systemic tool, on which the EU relies far more heavily than the United States. By decapitating the Maduro regime, Washington has reasserted that sanctions are not an end state, but a step on an escalation ladder that can still culminate in the use of force. Yet this restoration of the credibility of sanctions comes at a great cost. It risks signalling to other revisionist or embattled regimes that force is the ultimate arbiter. All eyes are now on Moscow, since, as former US National Security Council official Fiona Hill testified in 2019, Russia had informally offered to end its support for Venezuela in exchange for US acquiescence on Ukraine.  Meanwhile, online advocates in China are calling on their regime to emulate the US and take similar steps against Taiwan. Worse still, Venezuela is now politically hollowed out. Any opposition figure who emerges now could be instantly labelled a US proxy. It is not yet clear what the thinking is in Washington about the day after, but the precedents of Iraq and Afghanistan are not encouraging. Once again, Washington has demonstrated its ability to act decisively – but also reminded us of its lack of staying power. For Ukraine, that distinction may prove fatal unless Europe can step up and support Kyiv more decisively in 2026.

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Editor's choice
News
NATO States remain on Heightened Alert as Russia and Belarus Launch Military Drills

NATO States remain on Heightened Alert as Russia and Belarus Launch Military Drills

On Friday (12 September), Russia and Belarus commenced large-scale joint military exercises under the name “Zapad 2025,” in operations that have triggered concern among NATO members along the alliance’s eastern frontier. The manoeuvres begin only days after Poland accused Moscow of violating its airspace with an unprecedented number of drones, intensifying tensions across the region. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, the purpose of Zapad 2025 is to enhance the skills of commanders and staff, improve cooperation, and conduct field training among regional and allied troop groupings. The Kremlin insists the drills were planned well in advance of the drone incident on Wednesday (10 September) involving Poland.
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News
Israel’s strikes in Yemen kill at least thirty-five people

Israel’s strikes in Yemen kill at least thirty-five people

On Wednesday (10 September), Israeli jets targeted Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, as well as al-Jawf province. Houthi authorities reported that there are at least 35 dead and 131 wounded, although later figures suggested 46 fatalities and 165 people injured. Strikes in Sanaa’s al-Tahrir neighbourhood damaged residential areas, a medical facility, and the national museum, while in al-Jawf, government compounds were hit. The damage to civilian infrastructure has drawn widespread condemnation, with UNESCO warning of irreparable losses to cultural heritage.
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EU to push for sanctions on Israel ministers and suspend bilateral support

EU to push for sanctions on Israel ministers and suspend bilateral support

The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen stated she would push to sanction "extremist" Israeli ministers and curb trade ties over Gaza, as she warned famine should not be used as a "weapon of war". Addressing the European Parliament on 10 September in the annual State of the Union, von der Leyen lamented that divisions among member states were holding back a European response but insisted the European Commission "will do all that it can on its own". "What is happening in Gaza has shaken the conscience of the world. People killed while begging for food. Mothers holding lifeless babies. These images are simply catastrophic," von der Leyen said. The German politician said the Commission would put its bilateral support to Israel on hold, stopping all payments, but without affecting work with civil society groups and Israel's Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial.
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Opinion
What role for the EU in the post-Washington South Caucasus?

What role for the EU in the post-Washington South Caucasus?

The agreements reached in the US-mediated summit of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Washington on August 8 are poised to fundamentally reshape the region's future. Particularly, the deal concerning the Zangezur corridor – rebranded as the “Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) – holds significant geopolitical importance. If implemented, the TRIPP agreement would deal a severe blow to the regional standing of Russia and Iran. More importantly, it would pave the way for a strategic U.S. presence in this critical geography. This outcome represents a success that few would have predicted for the United States, especially for the Trump administration, given the region's notoriously complex and volatile geopolitics.
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News
Palestinian film takes the world by storm: "The Voice of Hind Rajab" receives record 24 minute standing ovation at The Venice Film Festival

Palestinian film takes the world by storm: "The Voice of Hind Rajab" receives record 24 minute standing ovation at The Venice Film Festival

Kaouther Ben Hania’s The Voice of Hind Rajab made history at the Venice Film Festival, continuing the rise of Palestinian cinema on the world stage, writes William Mullally, Arts & Culture Editor of the UAE newspaper, The National. The Oscar-nominated Tunisian director's latest effort received a record-setting 24-minute standing ovation on Wednesday (3 September), before winning the Silver Lion Grand Jury Prize on Saturday (8 September). The film, which The National's review said “will break you”, reconstructs the death of five-year-old Palestinian Hind Rajab, who was killed in Gaza city last January alongside four cousins, her aunt and uncle, and two paramedics who attempted to rescue her after the family's car came under fire from Israeli forces. Hind was trapped for hours in the vehicle while on the phone with the Palestinian Red Cross. When paramedics finally reached her, both she and the rescuers were dead. Reports later concluded an Israeli tank had likely fired more than 300 bullets into the vehicle. Hind's voice recording from the call is used in the film. Shooting the project over three weeks in Tunisia last November with Palestinian performers, Ben Hania first went to Hind's mother to seek permission to use the voice recording rather than dramatise it, she tells The National. “Hind’s mother told me something about the voice of her daughter: 'It should be heard, and not be forgotten,'” she recalls. While critics have questioned the ethics of using the girl’s plight for dramatic purposes, with Variety accusing Ben Hania of “tear-jerker tactics”, the filmmaker makes no apologies for using Hind’s own voice, rather than that of an actress. “The voice of this little girl can make people uncomfortable. I can totally understand it, and that’s why I’m doing this movie. I’m not doing this movie to make people comfortable because Gazans are not having a comfortable life,” she says. The movie has garnered international attention to a level that few productions reach, with major Hollywood figures getting behind the project to amplify its message.   Both Joaquin Phoenix and Rooney Mara, who signed on to the film as producers after the fact to help boost its reach, along with several other major names, walked the red carpet with the filmmaking team, holding up a photo of Hind as cameras flashed. As Ben Hania said in her acceptance speech on Saturday: “We all believe in the force of cinema. It is what gathers us here tonight, and what gives us the courage to tell stories that might otherwise be buried.” The film is not the only Palestinian effort to garner international attention of late, as Israel's aggression in Gaza continues to turn the eyes of the world to Palestinian stories. this week, as 1,300 major names in the film community worldwide, including Mark Ruffalo, Olivia Colman and Josh O'Connor, are making permanent pledges to boycott working with Israeli film institutions that are “complicit in genocide”. Palestinian cinema has reached one major milestone after another, and as support grows, that streak should continue long into the future.
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News
Russia attacks Kyiv with 800 drones on Sunday morning

Russia attacks Kyiv with 800 drones on Sunday morning

Russia attacked the Ukrainian capital on Sunday morning (7 September)  hitting the building of the Cabinet of Ministers. There are a number of civilian casualties Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenco has officially confirmed that the Cabinet building in Kyiv was damaged in the Russian attack early this morning - the first time the building has been hit. The BBC, citing the Ukrainian air force, said that a record number of drones and missiles were launched by Russia in the latest nightly attack. Ukraine's air force says Russia launched 805 drones and 13 missiles in its overnight attack. Of those, 751 were shot down, the air force says. Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenco wrote on social media: "The enemy terrorizes our people across the country every day"  The BBC says it is very rare for Russian missiles and drones to hit right in the city centre like this, because of the concentration of air defence in the area. This time, it seems they were overwhelmed.
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UN Security Council meets in an emergency session to discuss Ukraine

UN Security Council meets in an emergency session to discuss Ukraine

On Friday afternoon (29 August), the United Nations Security Council held an emergency open briefing on Ukraine   The meeting was requested by Ukraine in a letter it sent on Thursday (28 August) following large-scale Russian aerial attacks conducted overnight on Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine. Council members Denmark, France, Greece, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Slovenia, and the UK supported the meeting request. Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča briefed the Council at the start of the two-hour meeting. Among the participants and speakers was the Ukrainian prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko. Addressing the session, the Head of the EU Delegation to the UN, Ambassador Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis, said that the EU objective remains clear: the EU supports an immediate, full and unconditional ceasefire. We also welcome the efforts by the US to seek an end to Russia’s war of aggression and to stop the killing. As EU, we contribute to these efforts in order to achieve a just and lasting peace and long-term security for Ukraine and our continent. I urge all members of this Council to use their influence and maximize pressure on Russia to accept an immediate ceasefire and work towards a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.” He said that the EU will remain united in providing political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine, as it exercises its inherent right of self-defence. We will continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine and in defence of the UN Charter and international law. I respectfully submit that this Council, without any wavering or any hesitation, do the same, at a time when Russia intensifies its killings and continues to pursue its illegal objectives, instead of peace.”