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The fate of Central Asia may be decided on the steppes and in the forests of Ukraine
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The fate of Central Asia may be decided on the steppes and in the forests of Ukraine

14 May 2024
Vladimir Putin was sworn in for another six-year term as the President of Russia on Tuesday, 7 May. With Putin having been the undisputed leader of Russia for decades, continuity, one would have thought, was assured. Yet Putin himself, on Monday (13 May) speaking at a meeting of the Security Council spoke of “a new political cycle” in Russia. Some of the first decisions of the re-elected president give us a sense of what is to come. First, there was the surprise dismissal of Sergei Shoigu as Minister of Defence, and his transfer to be the Secretary of the Security Council. There had been speculation for some time that Shoigu’s time at the Ministry of Defence was up. But what was surprising was the appointment of Andrei Belousov, former Deputy Prime Minister – an efficient technocrat with an economic background to replace him. That the Russian Ministry of Defence has needed a shake-up for some time has been abundantly clear, but Andrei Belousov’s mission seems to be more ambitious than that: He is tasked with transforming the Russian Defence Ministry into a modern institution that can embrace new ideas and techniques, and that has enough flexibility to conduct the sort of hybrid warfare that is likely to be the order of the day going forward. So despite all of Putin’s bravados about the Russian nuclear arsenal, it seems he is putting his faith in a more innovative, agile, and versatile force. Then on Monday, 13 May, Putin held his first meeting of the Security Council since his inauguration. The Kremlin website only referred to one item out of apparently several that were discussed, namely relations with the post-Soviet Republics, a subject much close to the heart of the president. Putin reiterated that this was a priority in foreign policy. Putin said, “we should pay even more attention to this area in the new political cycle in Russia and discuss the way we will organise this work from all points of view, including organisational”. So it appears that there is new thinking in this sphere, details of which is not yet known.
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Ukraine marks the Day of Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred
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Ukraine marks the Day of Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred

20 February 2023
Today, on Monday (20 February), Ukraine is marking the Day of Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred in commemoration of those who died during the 2013-14 Euromaidan protests, also known as the Revolution of Dignity. It has been marked annually on 20 February following a Presidential Decree signed by then-Ukrainian President on 11 February 2015, "On commemorating the feat of the participants in the Revolution of Dignity and perpetuating the memory of the Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred." "The Heavenly Hundred" refers to the 108 people who died during the Euromaidan protests nine years ago. This includes 105 Ukrainians and three foreigners, one from Belarus and two from Georgia. It was between 18-20 February 2014 that the Revolution was at its most violent, during which time 78 protesters were killed on Independence Square in Kyiv. After 20 February, over 20 protesters died of their injuries. The day began with a short address from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He said: "The time comes when the voices of millions merge into a single voice of the people, saying that Ukrainians want and will live only in a free state. In their own Ukraine. Which will certainly survive. And which will certainly preserve freedom."
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South Caucasus leaders share Munich platform to outline vision for the region
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South Caucasus leaders share Munich platform to outline vision for the region

19 February 2023
The leaders of the three South Caucasus countries made a rare joint appearance at the Munich Security Conference this weekend, to outline their vision for the future of the region. There was a certain awkwardness in the air as Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia and Irakli Garibashvili of Georgia answered questions put by the moderator, Christoph Heusgen, during a panel entitled "Moving mountains, building security in the South Caucasus". The moderator further complicated things when he described the event as a historic first meeting of the leaders of the three South Caucasus countries. An appearance at the same event can hardly be called a meeting. Despite this however, the appearance of the the leaders together is a rare event, and augurs well for future regional co-operation which up to now has been largely non-existent. On the margins of the Munich conference, president Aliyev and prime minister Pashinyan also had a face to face meeting in a gathering hosted by the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. After a hiatus of several months it now seems that the peace process between the two countries is starting to gather pace again.
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Russia may have lost up to 200,000 troops, according to UK intelligence
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Russia may have lost up to 200,000 troops, according to UK intelligence

17 February 2023
In a security briefing on the Russia-Ukraine war released on Friday (17 February), the UK Ministry of Defence has announced that they believe that Russia may have lost anywhere between 175,000 and 200,000 soldiers since the 24 February 2022. This figure includes regular soldiers from the Russian Armed Forces and private military contractors from the likes of the Wagner group. The briefing adds that the number of killed could be anywhere between 40,000 and 60,000, and that the casualty rate has significantly increased since Vladimir Putin announced his 'partial mobilisation' in September 2022. It goes on to say that by modern standards, "these figures represent a high ratio of personnel killed compared to those wounded", adding that the casualty rate has likely been exacerbated by "extremely rudimentary medical provision across much of the force". Finally, the briefing writes that Wagner forces have deployed large numbers of convict recruits, who have probably seen a casualty rate of up to 50%.
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It took an earthquake to jolt Armenia-Turkey relations out of decades of animosity
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It took an earthquake to jolt Armenia-Turkey relations out of decades of animosity

16 February 2023
The earthquake that hit Turkey and parts of Syria on 6 February was a massive tragedy. As of Thursday (16 February) it has left nearly fifty thousand people dead, many tens of thousands injured and millions affected directly or indirectly. The world rallied around the beleaguered communities, putting aside political differences and diplomatic obstacles. The impact of the earthquake on Turkey was enormous. Ten out of eighty one Turkish provinces were affected, and some Turkish towns were wiped away almost completely. Humanitarian aid started pouring into Turkey from every part of the world. The contribution of one small neighbouring country was particularly significant, not only as part of the humanitarian effort, but also for its political and diplomatic symbolism. Armenia and Turkey have had a difficult relationship for decades. The two neighbouring countries do not have diplomatic relations. Their borders are closed. Recent attempts to normalise relations appeared to be moving at very slow speed – both sides having to manoeuvre around many sensitive issues, and a heavy baggage of history. It took an earthquake to jolt relations out of decades of animosity.
commonspace.eu editorial team
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Russia launches another wave of missile strikes on Ukraine after very heavy losses
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Russia launches another wave of missile strikes on Ukraine after very heavy losses

16 February 2023
Russia has unleashed a 15th wave of missile strikes against Ukraine overnight on Thursday (16 February) after reportedly sustaining very heavy losses in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region. According to the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's armed forces Valery Zaluzhny, overnight Russia launched 36 air and sea-based cruise, guided air-to-surface, and anti-ship missiles. He added that 16 of them were shot down by Ukrainian air defence. In a post on Telegram on Thursday morning, Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said, "the situation [in the East] is tense. Yes, it is difficult for us. But our fighters are not allowing the enemy to achieve their goals and are inflicting very serious losses." The latest wave of strikes comes after the military think tank, The Institute for Strategic Studies, suggests that Moscow's has lost as much as 50% of its pre-invasion fleet of modern T-72B3 and T-72B3M main battle tanks. Meanwhile, the UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has suggested that as many as two-thirds of Russia's tanks could be either "destroyed or broken". Speaking to the BBC on Wednesday (15 February), Mr Wallace added that they believe that as much as 97% of Russia's entire army are now in Ukraine. 
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Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers meet in Ankara, agree to expedite work to open border
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Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers meet in Ankara, agree to expedite work to open border

15 February 2023
The Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers Mevlut Cavusoglu and Ararat Mirzoyan have met in the Turkish capital of Ankara on Wednesday (15 February). The meeting followed an announcement from Armenian officials that a second Armenian aid convoy crossed the land border into Turkey late on Tuesday after the devastating 6 February earthquake which has killed over 40,000 people across Turkey and Syria. The meeting is being seen as a major development in the normalisation of ties between the two countries who do not enjoy any formal diplomatic relations and who remain divided over a number of issues. Mirzoyan expressed his "condolences to the families of the many thousands of victims of the devastating earthquake, the people and government of Turkey, and I wish swift recovery to all those injured." Recalling the 1988 Spitak earthquake in Armenia that killed over 20,000 people, Mirzoyan said, "I believe that the international community must not remain indifferent towards any humanitarian crisis happening anywhere around the globe. And it was by this very principle that immediately after the devastating earthquake the government of Armenia made a decision to send rescuers and humanitarian aid to Turkey."
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Armenia "ready" to open border with Turkey, more aid passes through, FMs meet in Ankara
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Armenia "ready" to open border with Turkey, more aid passes through, FMs meet in Ankara

15 February 2023
The Secretary of Armenia’s Security Council Armen Grigoryan has told journalists at a briefing on Tuesday (14 February) that Armenia is "ready"  for opening of the shared border with Turkey and normalisation of relations any time. "The Armenian and Turkish sides are holding discussions on the issue and will continue the discussions, hoping that it will take place as soon as possible," Grigoryan said. He added that an agreement on opening the border for nationals of third countries had indeed been reached last year between Armenia and Turkey, but said that no timeframe was discussed. The agreement was struck in July 2022, but changes on the ground have not yet materialised. Tweeting early in the morning on Wednesday, the Spokesperson for the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Vahan Hunanyan announced, "Armenia continues sending humanitarian aid to earthquake-affected regions. Late last night, trucks loaded with the second batch of humanitarian aid crossed the Armenian-Turkish border through the Margara bridge."
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