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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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News
UN head, Antonio Gutteres, visits Syria

UN head, Antonio Gutteres, visits Syria

UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres visited Syria over the weekend (25-26 July) for first official visit by a UN chief in 17 years. In Damascus, the UN chief met Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa,  Guterres appealed to the international community to support the people of Syria and criticised Israel’s actions in the country’s south as he kicked off his first visit to the Arab nation as the UN chief, nearly two years after the fall of Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad. Guterres arrived on Saturday morning at Damascus international airport, where he and his delegation were met by Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, Syria’s state news agency reported. Shortly after his arrival, Guterres held talks with Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, before touring the old quarter of Damascus and the famous Umayyad Mosque. The UN chief also visited the notorious Sednaya military prison, a sprawling complex just north of Damascus that has become synonymous with some of the worst atrocities committed under the al-Assad family’s rule. The visit comes as Syria is trying to recover from the civil war that broke out in March 2011 and killed nearly half a million people, causing widespread destruction that will cost tens of billions of dollars to rebuild. The UN “stands with Syria at this pivotal moment”, Guterres said in a post on X after landing in Damascus. “I appeal to the international community to spare no effort to support the people of Syria as well,” he added. A statement from al-Sharaa’s office said his meeting with the UN chief addressed strengthening cooperation between Syria and the UN “in the humanitarian and development fields”. Meanwhile, al-Shaibani called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from a UN-patrolled buffer zone on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, where they deployed in 2024 after the ouster of al-Assad. “We underscore the importance of fully respecting Syria’s sovereignty, independence, unity, and territorial integrity,” Guterres told a news conference on Saturday. “Violations of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are unacceptable and must cease. What is happening in the region around the Golan Heights is totally unacceptable,” he said, adding: “I’d like to remind the international community that the Golan Heights are Syrian territory.” After al-Assad’s overthrow, Israel sent troops into the buffer zone that separated Israeli and Syrian forces on the Golan Heights for decades, and has carried out strikes and repeated incursions deeper into Syrian territory. Israeli officials say they intend to keep forces in a “security zone” in southern Syria. Al-Shibani said there can be no regional peace amid the continuation of Israeli military operations and occupation that form a “direct threat to the security of the region”.
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GULF CRISIS
Baghaei says progress made in Oman talks on Strait of Hormuz

Baghaei says progress made in Oman talks on Strait of Hormuz

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei says talks were held with Oman on Friday and Saturday over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. He said progress has been made. “The two sides exchanged views on common principles and operational mechanisms for managing the safe passage of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz while respecting the sovereign rights of the two coastal states,” he says, according to Iran International. Baghaei reports that “the talks were useful and progress was made,” but notes that “technical and political consultations between the two sides will continue.” He says that “at present, there has been no change in the status of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.” In the meantime, the last two nights in the Gulf have been relatively quiet. There was no bombing of Iran by the US, and Iran has not attacked targets in neighbouring Gulf countries. There were however several incdents involving shipping.
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GULF CRISIS
Tehran Claims Control of Middle East Maritime Choke Points

Tehran Claims Control of Middle East Maritime Choke Points

The crisis in the Gulf continues. The US bombed Iran for the twelfth consecutive night, but Tehran continues to assert control over the key Middle East maritime choke points - the Strait of Hormuz, and Bab el Mandeb. Yemen's Houthis say they have attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea as the US launched its 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iran. Iranian state media said two people had been killed in the US strikes on Wednesday, and a tanker caught fire in an explosion in a mined route in the Strait of Hormuz. Ahead of the latest round of strikes, US President Donald Trump had threatened to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant if Iran attacked a ship in the strait and to "take care of" the Houthis if they blocked the Red Sea. If confirmed, the Houthi attack would be the first since the Iran-backed group announced a "maritime embargo" against Saudi Arabia. The Houthis named the tankers as the Encelia and the Layla, though neither their responsibility, nor the attack on the Layla has been confirmed. The group's military spokesperson Yahya Saree said they had targeted the ships with drones and missiles for allegedly violating its naval blockade. Saree added that the Houthis promised to continue their naval operations and would continue "enforcing the 'siege for a siege' equation". UK Maritime Trade Operation (UKMTO) reported an "unknown projectile" struck a Saudi tanker about 130km from Al Shuqaiq in Saudi Arabia at 20:00 GMT. The attack caused a fire but no casualties, it said. British maritime risk management group Vanguard also reported that the Saudi tanker Encelia had been hit. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) said the Strait of Hormuz was "completely closed" after an explosion in the channel, Iranian state media reported. The IRGC said it had stopped three oil tankers from passing through the strait. One tanker caught fire and two others turned back after attempting to pass through a mined route south of the strait, according to Iranian state media. At least seven oil tankers have made U-turns close to Yemen since the Iran-linked Houthi group announced a "maritime embargo" against Saudi Arabia on Monday, ship-tracking data shows. (click image to read more)