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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan
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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

4 August 2022
Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
Benyamin Poghosyan
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Commentary
Gulf countries seek new security framework as war exposes the limitations of US guarantees
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Gulf countries seek new security framework as war exposes the limitations of US guarantees

21 April 2026
There appears to have been a shift in the calculus of the war, though it is not entirely clear whether it amounts to a turning point or merely a pause. Writing for Al Arabiya, political analyst Raghida Dergham observed that both Washington and Tehran appear to be buying time, studying strategic and tactical mistakes, repositioning militarily and politically, and seeking what she called “a warrior's pause”. Neither side emerged from the first round with a decisive outcome: Tehran's regime appears to remain intact, and Trump's objectives remain unmet. What is new, and what has been described as both intriguing and alarming, is that Trump briefly spoke of a US-Iranian partnership in generating revenue via the Strait of Hormuz before walking back on the idea due to pressure from European and Gulf allies. The remark, however fleeting, signals the unpredictability of the situation; a White House moving between maximum pressure and maximum uncertainty, with allies left to scrape for interpretation. Reminiscent of this fact, negotiations in Islamabad seem to have stalled, and Trump's decision to impose a blockade on Iran’s maritime trade has only further disrupted the landscape, even as Iran threatens to retaliate by targeting Gulf ports directly. (To read the full briefing, click on the image above.)
Written by Santiago Ferbel-Azcarate
Editor's choice
Commentary
Gulf countries seek new security framework as war exposes the limitations of US guarantees
Trending

Gulf countries seek new security framework as war exposes the limitations of US guarantees

21 April 2026
There appears to have been a shift in the calculus of the war, though it is not entirely clear whether it amounts to a turning point or merely a pause. Writing for Al Arabiya, political analyst Raghida Dergham observed that both Washington and Tehran appear to be buying time, studying strategic and tactical mistakes, repositioning militarily and politically, and seeking what she called “a warrior's pause”. Neither side emerged from the first round with a decisive outcome: Tehran's regime appears to remain intact, and Trump's objectives remain unmet. What is new, and what has been described as both intriguing and alarming, is that Trump briefly spoke of a US-Iranian partnership in generating revenue via the Strait of Hormuz before walking back on the idea due to pressure from European and Gulf allies. The remark, however fleeting, signals the unpredictability of the situation; a White House moving between maximum pressure and maximum uncertainty, with allies left to scrape for interpretation. Reminiscent of this fact, negotiations in Islamabad seem to have stalled, and Trump's decision to impose a blockade on Iran’s maritime trade has only further disrupted the landscape, even as Iran threatens to retaliate by targeting Gulf ports directly. (To read the full briefing, click on the image above.)
Written by Santiago Ferbel-Azcarate