Georgian analyst George Mchedlishvili tells commonspace.eu that "Moldova and Georgia have both made it to Vilnius braving a whole range of hostile moves and threats on the part of a revisionist Russia hell-bent to drag the post-Soviet states into the past".
For some it came as a complete surprise, but for others it was only to be expected. The Summit of the European Union Eastern Partnership that opens today in Vilnius has turned from being simply a celebration of the EU's relationship with its Eastern neighbours into an arena where the six Partnership countries have been forced to make difficult choices. Russia's decision to turn its own relationship with these countries into a zero sum game, forcing some of them to make embarrasing political u-turns against the will of their own people, has raised the stakes and opened a new situation with an unpredictable ending.
Some analysts are warning against overestimating the immediate importance of Vilnius. Georgian analyst George Mchedlishvili, a fellow at London's Chatham House and an Associate Professor at the University of Georgia told commonspace.eu that important as today's Vilnius Summit is one should not consider it in a "now-or-never" context, nor believe that initialing Association Agreement is a defining moment, rendering the path to Europe irreversible. There will be more chances for Ukraine and Armenia, since public opinion in the two countries favors European integration. And there will be more roadblocks for Georgia and Moldova, domestic and external alike.
Mchedlishvili believes that the onus now rests with the European Union to deal with the new situation that has emerged. He told commonspace.eu:
"To a considerable extent, the ball is in the European court, in that at Vilnius, and in the direct aftermath, the EU will have to be more consistent and flexible, juggling several balls. In all six countries, albeit to a different extent, Europe is viewed as a repository of hopes and aspirations for a better future and normally functioning states. Moldova and Georgia have both made it to Vilnius braving a whole range of hostile moves and threats on the part of a revisionist Russia hell-bent to drag the post-Soviet states into the past. So, Europe should reward this commitment and reciprocate. Which is a big question, given the EU's and its individual member state's past record of appeasing Moscow.
As far as Georgia is concerned, over the last several years the country has managed to partially extricate itself from the dependence on Russia for energy, as well as readjusted its agricultural sector and therefore will be able to withstand Russia's economic pressure better than Moldova. But this might also mean that Moscow might be tempted to go as far as use of brutal force again to derail Georgia from its westward orientation."
He however warns that the countries that choose the path of EU Association need also to be aware of their own duties and responsabilities:
"The potential difficulties for the EaP countries are not only external. Both AA and DCFTA require thorough reforms in many areas and legislative alignment and introduction of EU norms. This might prove painful and costly in the short term for economically weak states, so a great deal of flexibility and strategic planning in assisting the eastern neighbors to meet these standards will be required on the part of EU."
source: commonspace.eu
