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Ukraine and Russia, two countries at war since February, have signed two historic deals with Turkey and the United Nations for the creation of a secure food corridor through the Black Sea under a comprehensive plan, dubbed the Black Sea Initiative. Ukraine and Russia signed two memorandums of understanding with Turkey and the U.N. on Friday, July 22, to begin exporting their grains and other food products. The agreement was signed for Ukraine was signed by Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov and for Russia by Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. Defence Minister Hulusi Akar signed the memorandums of understanding on behalf of Turkey. One of the most important aspects of the deals is the fact that the entire operation will be controlled through a coordination center to be established in Istanbul. It will host officials from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the U.N. so that the process and the maritime safety of the vessels from and to Ukraine can be jointly monitored. This center will also check the cargo of vessels on their way to the world markets and to the Ukrainian ports in Odesa, Pivdennyi and Chornomorsk. Russia was concerned that Ukraine-bound empty vessels could carry weapons and military equipment. As the demining of these ports will take time, the parties agreed that the commercial vessels will be guided by the Ukrainian navy until they reach a secured corridor in the Black Sea. While these operations continue, the two warring sides will not attack each other.

The UN Secretary-General's Special Envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg has intensified contacts with all local and regional parties to support the implementation of the remaining clauses in Yemen's soon to expire truce. Grunderberg hopes that the truce can be extended beyond the current term which ends on 2 August.  Grundberg acknowledged that there were shortcomings in the full implementation of the truce but stressed repeatedly that the truce helped make a significant impact on people's lives. Read the full press release here.  On the thorny question of the opening of the Taiz road, Grunderb noted that dialogue and coordination between the two sides needs to continue. He added that unilateral actions do not help provide a safe passage for goods and travellers.  Sources speaking to the publication The New Arab suggested that the UN is seeking a six month extension of the truce. The Special Envoy, however, has to first address complaints from both sides. It is expected that he visits both Muscat and Aden in the coming days.  On another note, forces loyal to Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) which heads the internationally recognised Yemeni government, are said to be preparing for the next wave of battles. Around 14 thousand fighters, divided into three brigades and supported by Saudi Arabia, have completed training and are on stand by in areas under the government's control. The brigades, known as 'Happy Yemen Brigades' are believed to be an extension to forces that engaged in battles in early 2022 before the truce went into effect.  Currently, those brigades are tasked with security and protection missions and it is not clear if they will be assigned any frontline duties.

Russia has restarted gas supplies to Germany via the German-Russian Nord Stream I gas pipeline on Thursday (21 July). The gas pipeline had been closed for the past ten days for the usual annual maintenance, but it was uncertain whether gas would flow via the pipeline again. The Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom had previously informed European clients by letter that it cannot guarantee that deliveries will be resumed after the maintenance work. It invoked "exceptional circumstances". The European Commission therefore feared that Russia would permanently stop the gas supplies from Nord Stream I after the maintenance. European Commissioner Johannes Hahn said this week that the European Commission was even working on the "assumption that the gas supplies will not be resumed". Gazprom already reduced gas supplies to Germany by 60 per cent in June. It is not clear whether resumed deliveries will be at the same level as before the maintenance. At that time, they amounted to 67 million cubic metres per day, about 40 percent of Nord Stream I's maximum capacity. Since the supply resumed, the gas price has fallen slightly, first by 6.5 percent, after which the price stabilised around 4 percent. 

A summit meeting of the leaders of Turkey, Russia and Iran took place in Tehran on Tuesday 19 July. This is an unlikely trio, three ambitious regional powers who have been brought together by circumstances. The event itself was a set-piece affair, and most of the serious work was done in the bilateral Iran-Russia, Iran-Turkey and Turkey-Russia meetings. Top of the agenda was Syria, and Turkey's determination not to allow Syria to be a springboard for Kurdish militant activity against it. Turkey has for weeks been preparing for a military operation into Syria. Turkish president, Recip Tayip Erdogan told his Russian and Iranian counterparts that he expected their full support in Ankara’s fight against “terrorists” in Syria. Both Russia and Iran have a military presence in parts of Syria mentioned as possible targets of Turkey’s new assault. “What we expect from Russia and Iran is their support for Turkey in its fight against terrorism,” Erdogan said. However, in a meeting with Erdogan on Monday (18 July), Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei told Erdogan such an offensive would be “detrimental” for the region and called for the issue to be resolved through dialogue between Ankara, Damascus, Moscow and Tehran. A 16 point statement was issued at the end of the summit which makes no reference to the imminent Turkish offensive.

After years of uncertainty in EU-Azerbaijan relations, co-operation between the two sides has finally been put on a strategic footing with the signing in Baku on Monday (19 July) of a new "Memorandum of Understanding on a Strategic Partnership in the Field of Energy". The signing of the MOU comes at a crucial time when Europe is frantically trying to replace gas and other energy supplies from Russia, in the aftermath of the latter's invasion of Ukraine. A report on the website of the European Commission said that the memorandum signed by the two Presidents today includes a commitment to double the capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor to deliver at least 20 billion cubic metres to the EU annually by 2027. This will contribute to the diversification objectives in the REPowerEU Plan and help Europe to end its dependency on Russian gas. Based on the strengthened energy cooperation, Azerbaijan is already now increasing deliveries of natural gas to the EU, from 8.1 billion cubic metres in 2021 to an expected 12 bcm in 2022. commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that "EU-Azerbaijan relations need to continue to be build, based on mutual respect and recognising the importance of people to people contacts for the future of the relationship. The EU on its part, especially now that the stakes are higher, needs to put more efforts in supporting lasting peace in the region. The energy agenda has its specific importance and aspects, but it cannot be seen in isolation of wider issues."

"There should be realistic expectations of what can result from ongoing discussions on the normalisation of relations between Armenia and Turkey", writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. The potential normalisation of relations – establishment of diplomatic relations, and opening of land borders – does not mean that Armenia and Turkey will not have disagreements, contradictions, or even will not act against each other in particular circumstances. "Given the current situation in the South Caucasus, the region is far away from peace, and no one should have hopes that Armenia – Turkey normalization will solve conflicts and bring an era of peace to the region. However, in the current situation, even a contribution to regional stability is too significant an opportunity to miss."    

It is not a coincidence that on his first trip to the Middle East since becoming US president, Joe Biden is visiting Saudi Arabia. Together with relations with Israel, relations with the Kingdom have been the cornerstone of US policy in the region. Over the last two years these relations were tested with trust between the two sides falling to its lowest level for decades. The visit appears to have succeeded in bringing relations back to a qualitatively high level. On Friday (15 July) Biden met King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. On Saturday he is due to meet with other Arab leaders at a summit that will bring together the leaders of the sic GCC countries, together with Egypt, Jordan and Iraq. A joint communique published by the Saudi Press Agency early on Saturday emphasised that the “US-Saudi partnership has been a cornerstone of regional security over decades, and affirmed that the two countries share a vision of a more secure, stable, and prosperous region, interconnected with the world,”  The document highlighted various areas of cooperation from energy security to space exploration. In the area of defense, Biden reaffirmed the US’ commitment to Saudi Arabia’s security and territorial defense, and “facilitating the Kingdom’s ability to obtain necessary capabilities to defend its people and territory against external threats” The statement said that US troops will depart from Tiran Island paving the way for it to be developed. Additionally, overflights of the Kingdom’s airspace was expanded on Friday, which the US welcomed.