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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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Germany will soon have the largest conventional army in Europe, but there will be no conscription

Germany will soon have the largest conventional army in Europe, but there will be no conscription

The Bundeswehr currently has around 182,000 troops. The new military service model aims to increase that number by 20,000 over the next year, rising to between 255,000 and 260,000 over the next 10 years, supplemented by approximately 200,000 reservists. From next year, all 18-year-old men and women will be sent a questionnaire to assess their interest and willingness to join the armed forces. It will be mandatory for men and voluntary for women. From July 2027 all men aged 18 will also have to take a medical exam to assess their fitness for duty. If the government's targets are not met, a form of compulsory enlistment could be considered by parliament. If war were to break out, the military would be able to draw on the questionnaires and medical exams for potential recruits. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said despite the new military service plan there was "no cause for concern... no reason for fear". "The more capable of deterrence and defence our armed forces are, through armament through training and through personnel, the less likely it is that we will become a party to a conflict at all," Pistorius said. Defence spending in Germany tumbled after the end of the Cold War, while conscription was suspended in 2011. Given its past, Germany has long been shy of showing military might, but earlier this year Friedrich Merz announced that the rule for German defence "now has to be whatever it takes", following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Around 300,000 young men per year will be affected. The defense minister argues that this is the only way for the Bundeswehr to get an idea of who could be called up in the event of a conflict.
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News
G7 foreign ministers issue wide ranging statement after their meeting in Canada

G7 foreign ministers issue wide ranging statement after their meeting in Canada

The Foreign Ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America, and the High Representative of the European Union, met under Canada’s G7 Presidency, in Niagara, on November 11-12, 2025. The Foreign Ministers of Brazil, India, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Mexico, the Republic of Korea, South Africa, and Ukraine, also joined the meeting for discussions on maritime security and prosperity, critical minerals, economic resilience and energy security. At the end of their meeting the G7 foreign ministers said: We reaffirmed our unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its territorial integrity and right to exist, and its freedom, sovereignty, and independence. We reiterated that an immediate ceasefire is urgently needed. We agreed that the current line of contact should be the starting point of negotiations. We remain committed to the principle that international borders must not be changed by force. We are increasing the economic costs to Russia, and exploring measures against countries and entities that are helping finance Russia’s war efforts. We condemned the provision to Russia of military assistance by DPRK and Iran, and the provision of weapons and dual-use components by China, a decisive enabler of Russia’s war. We acknowledged the ongoing discussions on a wide range of financing options, including further leveraging immobilised Russian Sovereign Assets in our jurisdictions in a coordinated way to support Ukraine. We strongly condemned Russia’s recent direct attacks on energy infrastructure and reaffirmed our support for Ukraine’s energy security. We reiterated our strong support for President Trump’s Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict. We welcomed the ceasefire and the release of hostages. We stressed the urgency of returning the remains of deceased hostages. We also welcomed the increased flows of aid, but expressed concern about restrictions that remain in place. We called on all parties to allow for humanitarian assistance without interference at scale, through the United Nations and its agencies, and the Red Crescent, in addition to other international institutions and INGOs, as stipulated in President Trump’s plan. It is vital that all parties continue to engage constructively on the next steps outlined in the Comprehensive Plan, in pursuit of a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous co-existence for the Israeli and Palestinian peoples that advances comprehensive Middle East peace and stability. We will also continue to maintain attention on the situation in the West Bank. (click headline to read more)
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News
Mystery surrounds the crash of a Turkish airline in Georgia which resulted in the death of 20 Turkish Airforce personnel

Mystery surrounds the crash of a Turkish airline in Georgia which resulted in the death of 20 Turkish Airforce personnel

​ Twenty Turkish Airforce personnel died when a military plane crushed on the Georgian side of the Azerbaijan - Georgia border on Tuesday (11 November). The C130 took off from Ganja and was heading to Merzifon, transporting service members that had participated in Azerbaijan's Victory Day celebrations. Half an hour after takeoff, the aircraft lost altitude and broke apart in mid-air over a mountainous area on the Georgian border. Lockheed C130 Hercules have been in service with Turkey since the 1960s and are considered among the most reliable in their class. However, some of these aircraft are 50–60 years old. In October, the Turkish Ministry of Defense announced plans to replace them with new C130J Super Hercules models, with deliveries expected to begin in the coming years. All aircraft fragments have already been collected for technical examination. The cause of the crash has not yet been officially determined. A Turkish expert and retired military officer Coşkun Başbuğ noted on CNN Türk, a technical malfunction "should be ruled out" as the cause of the crash. "Various possibilities should be considered, but the first thing to consider is that the C-130 is a time-tested military transport aircraft, the last known incident involving which occurred in 1982." "A technical malfunction should be ruled out as the cause of the crash. The same applies to weather conditions, as the relevant authorities would have reported bad weather. The remaining theories include a mid-air collision, sabotage, or an attack," he emphasized. Former Turkish Armed Forces Logistics Commander and retired Army General Erdoğan Karakuş stated in an interview with Turkish television that although the C-130 aircraft are old, they have undergone a complete modernization in Turkey, and their technical condition is thoroughly inspected before each flight. The Turkish Air Force is expected to operate the C-130 aircraft until 2040. ​
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News
Syrian president al Sharaa at the White House

Syrian president al Sharaa at the White House

Syrian president, Mohammed al Sharaa met with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday (10 November). Trump met with Sharaa in the first-ever visit by a Syrian president to the White House, six months after the two first met in Saudi Arabia, and just days after Washington said that the Syrian leader, who once led an Al-Qaeda affiliate group, was no longer a "Specially Designated Global Terrorist." Washington suspended the imposition of Caesar Act sanctions on Syria in part for 180 days, the Treasury Department said as the meeting took place. The move replaces a previous waiver enacted on 23 May, it said On Friday, the US lifted sanctions on Sharaa and Interior Minister Anas Khattab, a day after the UN Security Council took the same step. Sharaa, 42, took power last year after his fighters launched a lightning offensive from their Idlib and overthrew longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad just days later on December 8. Syria's regional realignment has since moved  away from key allies of the former regime, Iran and Russia, and toward Turkey, the Gulf - and Washington. Syria's presidency said that Sharaa and Trump discussed the bilateral relationship, "the ways to strengthen and develop it, as well as a number of regional and international issues of common interest." After al Sharaa and Trump met in Riyadh in May, Trump announced he would lift all sanctions on Syria.
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Monday Commentary
Armenia and Azerbaijan are on the way to peace, but the process is far from complete or irreversible

Armenia and Azerbaijan are on the way to peace, but the process is far from complete or irreversible

The long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which had been going on for three decades, appears to be coming to an end. After a short war which left many dead or injured, and a military operation which saw hundreds of thousands of Armenians leaving Azerbaijani territory, hundreds of thousands of displaced Azerbaijanis could start returning home. The sides engaged with discussions, first with mediators, and later, more successfully, alone. In March they agreed the text of a peace agreement. On 8 August, they initialed the agreement in Washington, in the presence of US President Donald Trump. The agreement has as yet to be signed. The meeting with Trump at the White House in August, was widely hailed as historic. It was. Not least because it tied Trump, the US, and the entire western world, to the peace process, and to the future of the South Caucasus. It was a game changer, with the potential of changing the reality on the ground. But now the hard work must start. But we must not be complacent, and think that from now onwards there will not be any problems. The peace process is incomplete and fragile. Below the top ten people on each side, whole populations, brought up with the vision of the other as enemy, have yet to be convinced of the new way forward. Lurking in the background, and sometimes, not so much in the background, are the enemies of peace, and the spoilers. The main enemies are external. Foremost is Russia. Russian policy in the South Caucasus over the last three decades has been built on the premise that Armenia and Azerbaijan were enemies that will never reconcile. The European Union in the South Caucasus is often doing catch up. It appears to have been taken by surprise by events in Georgia. It was not expecting Armenia-Azerbaijani peace and reconciliation. The European Union in the South Caucasus must catch-up, and step-up, fast. Easier said than done. The EU is set in its own ways, that were not invented, and developed for the fluid and fast changing situation that exists in the South Caucasus today. The EU must accept that in the South Caucasus it will have to lead. US involvement will be erratic, and can be counter-productive. But the EU does not have the luxury of time. If it wants to support the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan it must do so now. Armenia and Azerbaijan are on the way to peace, but the process is far from complete or irreversible. There are many enemies of peace, and spoilers, lurking, ready to pounce. click the headline to read more