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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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Analysis
Report highlights how a venerable international institution established after WWII grapples to be "wired for purpose"

Report highlights how a venerable international institution established after WWII grapples to be "wired for purpose"

Maintaining International Peace and Security in the Age of Rapid Technological Change: Is the Security Council Wired for Purpose? New research analysis by "Security Council Report" discusses the question. Rapid advances in information and communications technology (ICTs), artificial intelligence (AI), and other new and emerging technologies are reshaping the parameters of international peace and security, influencing both the nature of conflict and the means by which it is prevented and managed. As technological convergence accelerates, risks are becoming more complex, interconnected, and difficult to anticipate. The implications of technological change are increasingly visible across issues already before the Security Council, including counter-terrorism, the protection of civilians, sanctions, peacekeeping, and women, peace and security. Yet Council engagement remains limited, fragmented, and politically contested, even as these technologies become more consequential for international peace and security. This report examines how the Security Council has engaged with ICTs, AI, and other new and emerging technologies, and considers how that engagement might be strengthened within its existing mandate and in complementarity with broader UN processes. It analyses the Charter foundations for Council action, traces the evolution of Council practice, maps the intersections between technological developments and existing agenda items, examines the political divisions that have constrained a more systematic approach, and sets out options for action by Council members, the wider UN membership, the Secretariat, and non-governmental organisations and the private sector. It argues that, as technological change increasingly shapes the risks and opportunities confronting international peace and security, the Council will need to engage with these issues more systematically if it is to fulfil its responsibilities effectively. (click the picture to read the report)
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Commentary
How does the war in Iran affect the implementation of TRIPP?

How does the war in Iran affect the implementation of TRIPP?

The TRIPP project (the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity) is seen as a key component of the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process. For Azerbaijan, TRIPP promises access to the Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia; for Armenia, the route reaffirms the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. In addition, TRIPP is expected to open up regional trade and connectivity, while the presence of the United States on the ground in developing the route provides Armenia with an added layer of security reassurance. Many analysts argue that TRIPP is at the very heart of the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and they are not wrong. A possible delay in its implementation or a loss of interest from the Trump administration in advancing the route would raise big concerns regarding the peace process in both Baku and Yerevan. (Click on the image above for the full briefing.)