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"The signing of the framework agreement between Armenia and the United States on the Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) on June 4, 2026, and the ruling Civil Contract party’s victory in Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections have opened a window of opportunity to advance Armenia-Türkiye normalization. Türkiye, in coordination with the United States, is well positioned to seize this moment and help move the region from frozen conflict toward normalization", write Dr Benyamin Poghosyan, in this article for the Turkish publication, "Global Panorama". He adds, "TRIPP emerged from the August 2025 Washington meeting, where Armenia and Azerbaijan also initialed a peace agreement, giving fresh momentum to regional normalization. Since then, TRIPP has been moving toward implementation. The framework agreement signed on June 4 established the basis for developing and operating the route. This was followed in early July by a visit from engineers from the U.S. consulting firm AECOM, who surveyed the proposed site for rail and other infrastructure development. On July 16, the Armenian government approved a draft law to ratify the framework agreement and submitted it to the Constitutional Court. These steps were encouraging for both the Armenia-Azerbaijan and Armenia-Türkiye normalization processes, as all sides view TRIPP as part of the region’s broader transition from conflict and isolation toward connectivity and cooperation. Yet normalization has not proceeded as some may have expected, and the momentum generated in Washington is fading. The main hurdle to signing the peace agreement is Azerbaijan’s insistence that Armenia amend its constitution. The dispute centers on the preamble’s reference to Armenia’s 1990 Declaration of Independence, which cites a 1989 decision supporting the reunification of Soviet Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia’s prime minister had stated that amending the constitution had been part of the ruling party’s election platform and promised to publish a draft of the new constitution by the end of 2026. But despite its victory, the Civil Contract party did not secure the two-thirds majority in parliament needed to approve a new constitution. Even if the ruling party can persuade some opposition MPs to support it, final approval would still require a nationwide referendum, whose outcome is far from guaranteed given significant public opposition. That, in turn, has complicated Armenia-Türkiye normalization, as Ankara considers a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan a prerequisite for progress. Relations between Yerevan and Ankara have improved since 2022. In July 2022, the two sides agreed to open their border to third-country nationals and diplomatic passport holders as a first step toward full normalization. Since then, their special representatives have met several times, discussed rehabilitating the Gyumri-Kars railway, and agreed to permit direct trade. But the talks have produced no major breakthrough, and four years later, the border remains closed. This has created a vicious circle: without constitutional change, there is no Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement; without that agreement, Armenia-Türkiye normalization cannot advance; and without progress on either track, the momentum generated by the August 2025 Washington summit risks being lost. Meanwhile, the U.S. midterm elections in November may shift the Trump administration’s attention toward domestic politics, leaving roughly four months to break the deadlock and restore momentum." click the image to read the article in full)

The road across the South Caucasus could become not only a transport route but also a system of mutual commitments that makes another war prohibitively costly for all involved, writes Mehman Aliyev in this article that was first published by Turan Analytical Service. In Nakhchivan, separated from the rest of Azerbaijan by Armenian territory, the old railway served for decades as a reminder of the disintegration of a once-unified South Caucasus. The rails remained, but regional links were severed by war, blockade and mutual distrust. Now it is here that one of the most consequential infrastructure experiments in the post-Soviet space may begin. During a visit to Nakhchivan on August 11, President Ilham Aliyev said an international consortium could be created to reconstruct the Nakhchivan railway. The controlling stake, he stressed, should belong to the Azerbaijani state, but foreign companies and organisations could be among the investors. According to the president, the European Union and several countries have already shown interest in the project. The plan concerns 194 kilometres of railway in Nakhchivan. It is expected to be modernised so that annual freight capacity can rise from the current 1.5 million tonnes to 15 million tonnes. The Armenian section of the future route is considerably shorter, at 42 kilometres. Aliyev said its construction should begin in 2026. The full text of the president’s interview shows that the consortium proposal relates primarily to the Nakhchivan railway, not to placing the Azerbaijani part of TRIPP under foreign control. That distinction matters. In official documents, TRIPP — the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” — refers to communications passing through Armenian territory. Aliyev’s proposal, however, effectively broadens the idea of international participation itself: different but interconnected models of infrastructure governance are taking shape on either side of the border. In Armenia, the leading role is assigned to an Armenian–American company. In Azerbaijan, a consortium may emerge in which the state retains control. Together, these arrangements could transform the road from the subject of a territorial dispute into an international economic asset. The project could evolve from two national sections with different management models into a single international transport organism. If Azerbaijan and Armenia take their places as co-operators and key players, the corridor could become not only a road between East and West but also the first major joint system created by the two states after decades of conflict. (click image to read article in full)