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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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GULF CRISIS
Tehran Claims Control of Middle East Maritime Choke Points

Tehran Claims Control of Middle East Maritime Choke Points

The crisis in the Gulf continues. The US bombed Iran for the twelfth consecutive night, but Tehran continues to assert control over the key Middle East maritime choke points - the Strait of Hormuz, and Bab el Mandeb. Yemen's Houthis say they have attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea as the US launched its 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iran. Iranian state media said two people had been killed in the US strikes on Wednesday, and a tanker caught fire in an explosion in a mined route in the Strait of Hormuz. Ahead of the latest round of strikes, US President Donald Trump had threatened to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant if Iran attacked a ship in the strait and to "take care of" the Houthis if they blocked the Red Sea. If confirmed, the Houthi attack would be the first since the Iran-backed group announced a "maritime embargo" against Saudi Arabia. The Houthis named the tankers as the Encelia and the Layla, though neither their responsibility, nor the attack on the Layla has been confirmed. The group's military spokesperson Yahya Saree said they had targeted the ships with drones and missiles for allegedly violating its naval blockade. Saree added that the Houthis promised to continue their naval operations and would continue "enforcing the 'siege for a siege' equation". UK Maritime Trade Operation (UKMTO) reported an "unknown projectile" struck a Saudi tanker about 130km from Al Shuqaiq in Saudi Arabia at 20:00 GMT. The attack caused a fire but no casualties, it said. British maritime risk management group Vanguard also reported that the Saudi tanker Encelia had been hit. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) said the Strait of Hormuz was "completely closed" after an explosion in the channel, Iranian state media reported. The IRGC said it had stopped three oil tankers from passing through the strait. One tanker caught fire and two others turned back after attempting to pass through a mined route south of the strait, according to Iranian state media. At least seven oil tankers have made U-turns close to Yemen since the Iran-linked Houthi group announced a "maritime embargo" against Saudi Arabia on Monday, ship-tracking data shows. (click image to read more)
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Azerbaijan and Germany sign Joint Declaration on Strategic Agenda for Bilateral Partnership

Azerbaijan and Germany sign Joint Declaration on Strategic Agenda for Bilateral Partnership

Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliyev visited Berlin on Tuesday, 21 July. He met German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, and the two signed a Joint Declaration on the Strategic Agenda for Bilateral Partnership. In the Joint Declaration, Azerbaijan and Germany confirm their mutual desire to deepen bilateral partnership and cooperation based on mutual trust and coincidence of interests in various fields. They recalled their respect for each other’s state sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, reaffirm their common commitment to the Charter of the United Nations, the Helsinki Final Act, the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms, and other international legal instruments promoting peace and security. The two sides welcomed the historic progress in Azerbaijan-Armenia relations, in particular the outcomes of the Washington Summit of August 8, 2025, and the subsequent peaceful steps taken towards the normalization of relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia. The Federal Republic of Germany reaffirms its full support for the efforts of the two countries aimed at achieving lasting peace in the region. The Parties underline the strategic importance of the Azerbaijan-European Union (EU) partnership and note the increased cooperation aimed at further deepening political dialogue and practical cooperation. They also underline the importance of adopting the updated Azerbaijan-EU Partnership Priorities and making full use of the existing dialogue mechanisms between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the EU. The Parties also highly appreciate the efforts to strengthen cooperation between Azerbaijan and the EU Member States. (click image to read more).