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There appears to have been a shift in the calculus of the war, though it is not entirely clear whether it amounts to a turning point or merely a pause. Writing for Al Arabiya, political analyst Raghida Dergham observed that both Washington and Tehran appear to be buying time, studying strategic and tactical mistakes, repositioning militarily and politically, and seeking what she called “a warrior's pause”. Neither side emerged from the first round with a decisive outcome: Tehran's regime appears to remain intact, and Trump's objectives remain unmet. What is new, and what has been described as both intriguing and alarming, is that Trump briefly spoke of a US-Iranian partnership in generating revenue via the Strait of Hormuz before walking back on the idea due to pressure from European and Gulf allies. The remark, however fleeting, signals the unpredictability of the situation; a White House moving between maximum pressure and maximum uncertainty, with allies left to scrape for interpretation. Reminiscent of this fact, negotiations in Islamabad seem to have stalled, and Trump's decision to impose a blockade on Iran’s maritime trade has only further disrupted the landscape, even as Iran threatens to retaliate by targeting Gulf ports directly. (To read the full briefing, click on the image above.)

There appears to have been a shift in the calculus of the war, though it is not entirely clear whether it amounts to a turning point or merely a pause. Writing for Al Arabiya, political analyst Raghida Dergham observed that both Washington and Tehran appear to be buying time, studying strategic and tactical mistakes, repositioning militarily and politically, and seeking what she called “a warrior's pause”. Neither side emerged from the first round with a decisive outcome: Tehran's regime appears to remain intact, and Trump's objectives remain unmet. What is new, and what has been described as both intriguing and alarming, is that Trump briefly spoke of a US-Iranian partnership in generating revenue via the Strait of Hormuz before walking back on the idea due to pressure from European and Gulf allies. The remark, however fleeting, signals the unpredictability of the situation; a White House moving between maximum pressure and maximum uncertainty, with allies left to scrape for interpretation. Reminiscent of this fact, negotiations in Islamabad seem to have stalled, and Trump's decision to impose a blockade on Iran’s maritime trade has only further disrupted the landscape, even as Iran threatens to retaliate by targeting Gulf ports directly. (To read the full briefing, click on the image above.)

Last year the Catholic Church elected an American for the first time as its head. Robert Prevost, known since 2025 as Pope Leo XIV, was clearly not a conventional choice. He was also an enigma: on matters of religious liturgy and dogma he appeared as a conservative and traditionalist, on matters of the world he appeared liberal and progressive. It was perhaps this contradiction that made it easy for his fellow cardinals to elect him as Pope. Everyone could see something that they liked in Robert Prevost. In 2025, another American took over in a position of global consequence. In January Donald Trump was sworn in as president of the United States for a second term. Whilst Trump has never been short of controversy, even his most ardent critics have been shocked by his audacity, arrogance, and sheer bravado in office over the last fifteen months, culminating in a war that is far from over but is already a disaster for the US and the world. Trump 2.0 appears to have no constraints, either moral or constitutional. He returned to the White House a bitter man, feeling that he had been cheated of winning a second term in 2020, and determined to use his party’s control of both houses of congress to cheat the system of checks and balances that is the basis of the US constitution. Trump is also uninhibited by a need to think of his next election. Both his age and the constitution makes this prospect unlikely. So he decided to “enjoy the moment”. He does not like to hear bad news, nor advice that does not fit his own plans. The result is the surreal situation that has prevailed for the last 15 months. That these two Americans would clash was inevitable. On paper they exist in parallel worlds – one spiritual, and one temporal. But in truth they both have a strong view of how the world should look like, and this view cannot be more different. Up to recently different points of view emerged around domestic political issues, such as migrants. However, it is the war in the Middle East that has put the two Americans at loggerheads. Pope Leo XIV has been a very vocal critic of the war, and the basis of his criticism is moral. In his April 12 Truth Social post, Trump called the pope not just weak on crime but “terrible for Foreign Policy,” adding that "Leo should get his act together as Pope, use Common Sense, stop catering to the Radical Left, and focus on being a Great Pope, not a Politician.” The pope responded by saying he had “no fear of the Trump administration” and would continue to preach the Catholic Gospel. Trump takes on the Catholic leader at his peril. This is a rare moment in history, one in which the leader of one of the world’s largest faiths clashes with the strongest political leader of his age. Few doubt that it will be Pope Leo XIV who will emerge victorious, not least because he is right. (click image to read the full commentary).

The Pakistani capital, Islamabad, is preparing to host the second round of US-Iran talks, despite harsh statements and actions coming out from  both Washington and Tehran. Logistical and security arrangements are being out in place, amId hopes that the two sides may meet before Friday. Pressure is building up for the conflict, started by the US and Israeli attack on Iran on  28 February, to be brought to a swift end. Many countries are suffering as a result of the economic consequences, caused by the disruption of energy supplies, and the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. Foremost are the six countries of the Gulf Co-operation Council, whose economies are dependent on their energy exports. The Iranians say they are targeting any shipping trying to get through the Strait of Hormuz, while the Americans are imposing their naval blockade on all Iran’s Gulf ports. In normal times you have about 140 ships passing both ways through the Strait to collect oil, gas, fertiliser and other products. But only a trickle of ships has been getting through since the conflict started. Iran is insisting all maritime traffic goes up a new route set by them to be inspected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy and in some cases pay a toll.