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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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Putin can no longer claim victory in Ukraine, Nobel Peace Prize winner, Dimitry Muratov, tells BBC

Putin can no longer claim victory in Ukraine, Nobel Peace Prize winner, Dimitry Muratov, tells BBC

It is not often that people in Russia speak openly against Vladimir Putin. But the Nobel Peace Prize winner, and former editor of Novaya Gazeta, Dmitry Muratov, has broken this silence, in an interview with Steve Rosenberg, the BBC Russia correspondent, which was aired on the BBC news channel. Rosenberg says that at the Moscow offices of newspaper Novaya Gazeta, the corridors are silent. There is an overwhelming sense of emptiness  "There is no newspaper anymore," former chief editor Dmitry Muratov  says. Mr Muratov co-founded Novaya Gazeta more than 30 years ago. It became the flagship for hard-hitting independent journalism in Russia, shining a light on human rights abuses and high-level corruption. In 2021 Mr Muratov was joint winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts "to safeguard freedom of expression." The Nobel Committee noted that "six of [Novaya Gazeta's] journalists have been killed, including Anna Politkovskaya who wrote revealing articles on the war in Chechnya." It was recognition for courageous reporting. But it didn't protect the paper. "Putin issued a decree and the newspaper's printing presses were nationalised," Mr Muratov explains. "Its registration was revoked." Novaya Gazeta does retain a presence online. But only just: the authorities have blocked access to its website. It can only be accessed from abroad, or with the help of VPNs – virtual private networks used to circumvent restrictions. The newspaper's difficulties reflect the broader crackdown on free speech in Russia which has accelerated since the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. "Most opinion leaders have been declared 'foreign agents', 'extremists' or 'terrorists'. Several hundred," says Dmitry Muratov. "Figures vary, but at a conservative estimate, since the start of Russia's 'special military operation' [in Ukraine] at least 1,500 people are now in prison having spoken out against current state policy. That's three times more than during the savage days of the KGB in the USSR." In his 1975 Nobel Peace Prize lecture dissident Andrei Sakharov listed the names of more than 120 political prisoners he was aware of in the Soviet Union. A decade later what the Kremlin had assumed in 2022 would be a short, successful "military operation" has become the bloodiest conflict in Europe since the Second World War. Yet a confident President Putin continues to predict victory for Russia. But Muratov insists: "There will never be 'victory', because what has been going on for nearly five years – no matter how it ends – can no longer be considered a victory. It cannot be a victory when two Slavic nations have ripped a million people to shreds. Or more than a million. It seems to me that the situation with Ukraine now is this: you can destroy it, but you cannot conquer it. What do I mean by destroy? Continued escalation all the way to the use of a nuclear weapon." Does he really believe the Kremlin leader would use nuclear weapons in this war? "All those political experts who say 'Putin thinks this' or 'Putin is scared of that'…they're all charlatans," claims Dmitry Muratov. "It's in the same league as astrology. Nobody knows what's going on in Vladimir Putin's head. And I don't know. "I see things only as a journalist. I study big data. And since the beginning of the year the need to use nuclear weapons has been mentioned more than 500 times. When wackos say this, I pay no attention. But I've heard it discussed on state TV. And at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, a state-run event, one of the speakers talked up the use of nuclear weapons as something favourable, something good." When he announced the mass invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, President Putin spoke of "ensuring the security of Russia." "Tell me, has security increased?" Dmitry Muratov asks. "With Ukrainian drones now attacking warehouses of [Russia's largest online retailer] Wildberries; with the petrol crisis, the disruption to mobile internet, the political prisoners? Has security increased, or not?" Despite opinion polls registering a fall in Vladimir Putin's domestic approval ratings, Russia's president – Mr Muratov believes - retains a tight grip on power. "Sorry, I don't believe all this talk about a split among members of the elite, about secret conspiracies. The country is run by Vladimir Putin. They're frightened of him. "And this fear is reinforced in every way by his main support base: the Federal Security Service (FSB)." As critical as he is of his own government, he has few illusions about the West. "[Putin] knows very well the true value of European leaders. On the one hand they talk to him about human rights. He laughs out loud because, with the other hand, they sign agreements – or used to sign agreements – with Russia on trading oil, gas, diamonds…all that stuff. When they talk to Putin about European values, he truly laughs out loud. He knows the true value of people who preached to him those values." (click image to read more)
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Despite crisis, Lebanon takes the lead to become first country in the Middle East to abolish the death penalty

Despite crisis, Lebanon takes the lead to become first country in the Middle East to abolish the death penalty

Lebanon's parliament has voted to abolish the death penalty, a move that would make it the first country in the Middle East to formally end capital punishment. A majority of MPs in the 128-seat parliament backed the measure on Tuesday (11 August), while Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc voted against it. The legislation will now go to the cabinet before being passed to President Joseph Aoun for signing. The government has already expressed its support for the measure. Lebanon has not carried out an execution since January 2004, although courts have continued to hand down death sentences. Rights groups estimate that more than 78 people remain on death row. Under the new legislation, capital punishment will be replaced with life imprisonment with hard labour. However, the legislation does not yet set out in detail how the new sentence would be enforced. Hard labour is already written into Lebanese law but has rarely been implemented in recent years. The country's financial crisis and overcrowded prisons have limited the authorities' resources and capacity. The latest legislation follows years of campaigning by civil society groups and lawyers for the removal of capital punishment from Lebanese law. (click image to read more)