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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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International Election Observation Mission finds that Armenians were offered a genuine choice against a backdrop of direct foreign pressure and uneven campaign opportunities

International Election Observation Mission finds that Armenians were offered a genuine choice against a backdrop of direct foreign pressure and uneven campaign opportunities

Farah Karimi, Special Co-ordinator and leader of the short-term OSCE observer mission, said that: “The concentration of arrests and criminal prosecutions against opposition figures contributed to perceptions of selective justice, while a polarized media landscape, inflammatory rhetoric, misinformation, and persistent foreign pressure and interference challenged Armenia’s democratic resilience and the integrity of public debate. This underscores the importance of continued efforts to strengthen democratic institutions, safeguard fundamental freedoms, and foster public trust in democratic processes. ” Damien Cottier, Head of the delegation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, argued that “The Armenian elections took place in a particularly tense geopolitical context, with direct foreign interference. In particular, pressure and threats from Russian authorities reached an unprecedented and worrying level.” Janez Lenarčič, head of the election observation mission from the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, stated that “Armenia’s voters were given – and took – the opportunity to make a genuine choice in a professionally managed election process and a vibrant and pluralistic, if often highly polarized campaign. “Unfortunately, they had to make that choice against the backdrop of unprecedented foreign interference and pressure, in the form of punitive trade measures and day-by-day threats of further negative consequences contingent on which choice they made”. == click image to read full report
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Opinion
Opinion: Armenia’s 2026 Post-Election Landscape: Stable Majorities, Constitutional Realities, and the Architecture of "Active Balance"

Opinion: Armenia’s 2026 Post-Election Landscape: Stable Majorities, Constitutional Realities, and the Architecture of "Active Balance"

The finalization of preliminary data from all 2,005 polling stations following Armenia’s parliamentary elections has yielded a deceptively straightforward result. While the ruling Civil Contract party captured 49.81% of the popular vote, falling just short of an absolute majority among the electorate, the cold mechanics of the d'Hondt method and the natural elimination of minor lists under the updated threshold transformed this plurality into a commanding 60.95% legislative majority. Civil Contract has organically secured 64 out of the 105 baseline mandates, easily crossing the constitutionally required 54% threshold for a "stable majority." By completely eliminating the prospect of a second-round runoff or the necessity of building a coalition, this outcome allows Nikol Pashinyan to retain the premiership and form a unilateral executive. The remaining seats have been distributed between a fragmented opposition: the "Strong Armenia" bloc secured 29 mandates, while the "Armenia" bloc obtained 12. The Prosperous Armenia Party failed to cross the updated threshold, settling at 4.00% before final ballot adjustments.