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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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News
Kallas meets Erdogan in Turkiye and issues joint statement with Hakan Fidan

Kallas meets Erdogan in Turkiye and issues joint statement with Hakan Fidan

​ EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas, accompanied by the EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos and EU Commissioner for Internal Affairs and Migration Magnus Brunner were in Turkiye on Tuesday (30 June). Kallas and her delegation met with Turkish president, Recip Tayib Erdogan, and with Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan. They discussed EU-Türkiye relations in a global perspective, recalling Türkiye’s candidate status and acknowledging the strategic value of Türkiye-EU relations in promoting regional stability and economic resilience in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. They reviewed issues of common interest including economic and trade cooperation, connectivity, migration, security and common challenges in foreign and security policy. They reaffirmed the shared determination to take steps that would further enhance the cooperative and mutually beneficial relationship in these areas. The visit comes on the eve of a major NATO summit, which is due to be held in Turkiye 7-8 July, In the meeting with Erdogan, the two sides discussed relations between Turkey and the European Union, regional and international issues, and preparations for the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara. According to Anadolu, the talks were held behind closed doors. Also present on the Turkish side were Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Head of the Communications Directorate of the Presidential Administration Burhanettin Duran, and Presidential Adviser on Foreign Policy and Security Akif Çağatay Kılıç. Kaja Kallas, in turn, commented on her meeting with the Turkish President on social media. "Turkey is a key partner in security, migration, and energy issues, as well as a candidate country for EU membership," Kallas wrote. "It was a pleasure to speak with President Erdoğan today about further strengthening relations between the EU and Turkey, as well as the importance of good neighborly relations," she noted. "We also discussed Russia's war against Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, and preparations for the NATO summit in Ankara. Turkey makes a significant contribution to defending NATO's eastern flank," the EU High Representative concluded. ​(click image to read more)
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News
Tensions continue between Pakistan and Afghanistan

Tensions continue between Pakistan and Afghanistan

Tensions have again increased between Pakistan and Afghanistan. At least 28 civilians were killed after Pakistan launched air strikes and sent ground troops into Afghan provinces along its border on Sunday, the United Nations Afghan mission (UNAMA), has said. A further 49 were injured and women and children were among the victims, according to UNAMA. Afghanistan's Taliban government said civilian homes were hit and described the attack as a "cowardly act" and an "atrocity". Meanwhile, Pakistan said it had targeted militant hideouts in Afghanistan's Paktia, Paktika and Kunar provinces. The neighbouring countries agreed to a ceasefire last October following weeks of deadly clashes and an agreement that has since fallen apart. Casualties were concentrated in Mandokhail, a village in the Paktia province, according to Taliban officials. Afghanistan's Taliban government put the civilian death toll at 36 and said more than 160 had been injured. Pakistan's information minister Attaullah Tarar said 29 militants had been killed in an operation responding to "recent terrorist attacks against innocent people". The BBC has not independently confirmed figures from either side. The attacks come a day after three members of the Sindh Rangers, a Pakistani paramilitary force, were killed at their headquarters in Karachi, according to Pakistan's military. Three militants also died in the suicide attack, and Pakistani officials said they had arrested a fourth, who was an Afghan. Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a splinter faction of the TTP, claimed responsibility for Saturday's attack. Both the TTP, also known as the Pakistan Taliban, and Jamaat-ul-Ahrar are banned in Pakistan, and by the UN, because of their involvement in past attacks. Pakistan has long accused Afghanistan of harbouring terror groups that carry out cross-border attacks, a claim the Taliban government rejects.
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GULF CRISIS
US and Iran will meet on Tuesday in Qatar to try to save MOU

US and Iran will meet on Tuesday in Qatar to try to save MOU

Representatives of the United States and Iran are expected to meet in Qatar on Tuesday (30 June) in an attempt to salvage the Memorandum of Understanding that they signed a few days ago, but that has been inreasingly under threat as both sides reverted to military action against each other. Once more the main contention is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran insists that they control it, and any traffic through the straits have to be with their approval. The US insists that the Straits need to be open, unimpeded. Speaking in Baghdad on Sunday (28 June),  Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says responsability for the Strait of Hormuz lies solely with Tehran and warned that any attempt to bypass its preferred route in the waterwawill cause “tension and escalation”. The UN's International Maritime Organization (IMO) has paused the planned evacuation of more than 11,000 sailors stranded in the Strait of Hormuz after a cargo ship passing through the waterway was attacked. IMO chief Arsenio Dominguez said several boats had already been evacuated, but the agency wanted to ensure that "necessary safety guarantees" would continue to be in place. The British maritime security agency UKMTO reported on Thursday that a ship had been struck 7.5 nautical miles southeast of Oman's port of Dahit by "an unknown projectile". No casualties were reported. (click the image to read the full report)
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GULF CRISIS
Iraq proposes new initiative to bring Iran in discussion with GCC countries

Iraq proposes new initiative to bring Iran in discussion with GCC countries

The proposal was made by the Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, in a meeting in Baghdad on Sunday (28 June) with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi. Heading a political delegation, Araghchi arrived in the Iraqi capital on Sunday and was welcomed by Iraqi Communications Minister Mustafa Sand. According to Iraqi media reports, Sunday's discussions in Baghdad are expected to cover the Iran-US Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), Iraq’s debt payments to Iran, border security, and measures to prevent anti-Iran groups from operating on Iraqi territory. Araghchi was also expected to coordinate with Iraqi authorities regarding arrangements for the funeral ceremonies of the martyred Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei in Iraq’s holy shrines. Speaking at a press conference after his meeting with Iraqi Foreign Minister Hussein, Araghchi welcomed the Iraqi proposal.