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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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GULF CRISIS
War "paused", to be followed by talks in Islamabad on Friday

War "paused", to be followed by talks in Islamabad on Friday

Crowds in Tehran have been celebrating a "pause" in the war of Israel and the United States against Iran. US president Donald Trump announced a two-week pause in attacks on Iran if shipping is allowed through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump confirmed that discussions will be based on a 10 point Iranian plan. Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) has said in a statement following the announced conditional ceasefire that negotiations will be held in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad within a maximum period of 15 days for the details to be "finalised". The statement has said that the negotiations will be held so that "Iran's victory in the field would also be consolidated in political negotiations". The statement has gone beyond the 10-point plan that had been announced by state TV, and the statement has said that the US has agreed to: Guarantee not to repeat its "aggression" against Iran The continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz Acceptance of [uranium] enrichment Lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions Termination of all resolutions of the [UN] Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency Payment of compensation to Iran Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region And the cessation of war on all fronts, including against the "Islamic resistance of Lebanon" The ceasefire came just over an hour before Trump's 20:00 EDT (01:00 BST) deadline for Iran to make a deal, or else a  "whole civilisation will die" Iranians gathered in Iran's capital city carrying flags and portraits of Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following the announcement of the ceasefire. Donald Trump says there is no question the US had won a "total and complete victory" after agreeing a two-week ceasefire deal with Iran. In an interview with Agence France Presse after his announcement, he said that Iran's enriched uranium would be "perfectly taken care of" under the deal. "Or I wouldn't have settled," Trump said, without giving any specifics about what would happen to the uranium. When asked if he would go back to his original threats to destroy to Iran's civilian power plants and bridges if the deal fell apart all he would say was: "You're going to have to see."
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GULF CRISIS
Russia and China veto UNSC resolution, whilst Trump calls for erasing Iranian civilisation

Russia and China veto UNSC resolution, whilst Trump calls for erasing Iranian civilisation

Russia and China on Tuesday vetoed a UN Security Council resolution aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz that had been repeatedly watered down in hopes those two countries would abstain. The vote — 11 in favor, two against and two abstentions — took place just hours before an 8 p.m. Eastern deadline set by US President Donald Trump for Iran to open the strategic waterway or face attacks on its power plants and bridges. One-fifth of the world’s oil typically passes through the strait, and Iran’s stranglehold during the war has sent energy prices soaring. The initial Bahrain proposal would have authorized countries to use “all necessary means” — UN wording that would include military action — to ensure transit through the Strait of Hormuz and deter attempts to close it. After Russia, China and France, all veto-wielding countries on the 15-member Security Council, expressed opposition to approving the use of force, the resolution was revised to eliminate all references to offensive action. It would have authorized only “all defensive means necessary.” A vote had been expected on Saturday. But instead the resolution was further weakened to eliminate any reference to Security Council authorization — which is an order for action — and limit its provisions to the Strait of Hormuz. Previous drafts had included adjacent waters. The resolution vetoed Tuesday "strongly encourages states interested in the use of commercial maritime routes in the Strait of Hormuz to coordinate efforts, defensive in nature, commensurate with the circumstances, to contribute to ensuring the safety and security of navigation across the Strait of Hormuz.” This should include escorting merchant and commercial vessels, and deterring attempts to close, obstruct or interfere with international navigation through the strait, it says. The resolution also demanded that Iran immediately halt attacks on merchant and commercial vessels and stop impeding their freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and attacking civilian infrastructure. In response to the US and Israeli attacks beginning on Feb. 28, Iran has targeted hotels, airports, residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure in more than 10 countries, including the Islamic Republic's Gulf neighbors, some of the world’s major exporters of oil and natural gas. Iran's blockade in the strait is seen by Gulf nations as an existential threat. Bahrain, a Gulf nation that hosts the US Fifth Fleet and is the Security Council’s Arab representative and its president this month, has been pressing for UN action. At the same time, Trump on Monday demanded again that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz after heaping praise on the US military for the daring rescue of two crewmen of a fighter jet shot down in Iran. The Republican president warned Iran that the "entire country can be taken out in one night, and that might be tomorrow night.” He repeated the warning on Tuesday, saying a “whole civilization will die tonight” if Tehran does not meet his deadline to agree to a deal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Russia’s UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia and China’s UN Ambassador Fu Cong have blamed the US and Israel for starting the war and sparking an expanding global crisis. They told the Security Council last week that the most urgent priority now is to end military operations immediately. In response to Iran’s strikes against its Gulf neighbors, the Security Council adopted a Bahrain-sponsored resolution on March 11 condemning the “egregious attacks” and calling for Tehran to immediately halt its strikes. That resolution, adopted by a vote of 13-0 with Russia and China abstaining, also condemned Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz as a threat to international peace and security and called for an immediate end to all actions blocking shipping. (click image to read full report)
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News
Azerbaijan president Aliyev makes short official visit to Georgia

Azerbaijan president Aliyev makes short official visit to Georgia

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev on Monday (6 April) made an official visit to Georgia. During the visit, which lasted only for a few hours, Aliyev held meetings with the country's leadership, including the de facto political leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the honorary president of the ruling Georgian Dream party. Speaking at a press briefing with Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. Aliyev said that the South Caucasus was becoming a center of peace, security, and cooperation. "I would also like to note the role of Georgia here. The Georgian Prime Minister noted the peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Trade is also important in this area. Today, trade between Azerbaijan and Armenia is carried out through Georgia. For this, I would like to thank Georgia"