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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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Commentary
Iran and the US agree on a Memorandum of Understanding

Iran and the US agree on a Memorandum of Understanding

US President Donald Trump said on Monday (16 June) that a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran has been "all signed" electronically, and the Strait of Hormuz will be “completely open” by Friday (19 June). US officials said the agreement was signed by Trump, US Vice President JD Vance and main Iranian negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The details of MoU have yet to made fully public, but some details have been selectively leaked. The MoU, brokered in significant part by Pakistan and set to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday, includes a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon, an end to Iranian restrictions on the Strait, a reduction of US military assets from the region, and some relief of sanctions and frozen Iranian assets. Iran's nuclear program (the original justification of the war) is deferred to be decided during the following 60-day period, though the memorandum secured Iran's reaffirmation of its commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The regional welcome was broad and immediate, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, and Türkiye all issuing statements of relief. Yet that relief was calibrated. Gulf capitals had spent three and a half months watching Washington threaten a partner over a waterway, contemplate occupying an island within artillery range of the Iranian mainland, and preside over what they privately called the worst global energy crisis in decades, all while urging restraint behind closed doors. In truth, the memorandum of understanding resolves the immediate crisis. Whether it resolves the deeper question of what kind of security guarantor Washington intends to be is another matter entirely, and the quiet work of building alternative architecture across the region suggests that Gulf capitals are not simply waiting around for the answer. (Read the full briefing by clicking on the image above)
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GULF CRISIS
Iran and US sign memorandum "electronically"

Iran and US sign memorandum "electronically"

US President Donald Trump has said a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran has been "all signed"electronically, and the Strait of Hormuz will be “completely open” by Friday. US officials told the Reuters and AFP news agencies that the agreement was signed by Trump, US Vice President JD Vance and main Iranian negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Tuesday marks 109 days since the war began, with the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran. Here is what’s happening: The details of the MoU between the US and Iran have not yet been made fully public (click image to read more)
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News
The United States and Iran agree on a deal. The Strait of Hormuz is expected to open on Friday.

The United States and Iran agree on a deal. The Strait of Hormuz is expected to open on Friday.

The United States and Iran agreed on a deal to halt the war between them.. The Strait of Hormuz  is expected to open on Friday. Last night, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the US and Iran "declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon". He added an official signing ceremony would take place in Switzerland on 19 June . US President Donald Trump said "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete". He also said in a post on Truth Social that he authorised "the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz", and the removal of the US blockade of Iran’s ports. In a second post, he said the deal would "bring Peace and Security to the whole Region”, and that the opening of the strait would mean “oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World". Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed on state telelvision, that a deal with the US had been finalised and that the official signing would happen in Switzerland on Friday. "An immediate and permanent end to the war and military operations on different fronts including Lebanon will be announced tonight," he said.  But questions will linger until the full final text is made public. (Click image to read the full article)