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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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News
Head of UN agency, UNWRA, accuses Israel of trying to make refugee issue disappear

Head of UN agency, UNWRA, accuses Israel of trying to make refugee issue disappear

Christian Saunders, the head of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, in an interview with the Qatari news channel, Al Jazeera, pushed back against Israeli claims regarding the seized Qalandiya training centre after authorities alleged the property was owned by the Jewish National Fund and allocated to the Jerusalem Municipality for a planned complex, citing October 2024 legislation restricting UNRWA’s activities. UNRWA firmly rejected the claims, maintaining that the centre is a UN facility protected under international law. “We’re a humanitarian organisation; we’re a development organisation. We are given our mandate by the United Nations General Assembly to provide critical services,” Saunders said. He added that UNRWA would continue doing so “until the General Assembly decides otherwise, or there is a durable solution to the Palestine question”. Saunders said UNRWA was doing what it could to protect its staff and facilities through security assessments, training and risk mitigation. He said the Israelis’ use of force was ill-advised and that the only solution was through dialogue. “I think it is long overdue for the Israelis and the Palestinians to sit down and to resolve these issues. We’re not planning on going anywhere,” Saunders said. Christian Saunders, accused Israel of trying to “eliminate the presence of the United Nations” in the occupied Palestinian territory. Saunders told Al Jazeera that while the raid displaced UNRWA employees and left at least seven Palestinians injured by live ammunition, the broader goal is to make the refugee issue disappear. “If UNRWA is defunded and eliminated, then they are hoping that the issue of the refugees, the Palestine refugees, will go away,” Saunders said. “Which means that the right of return, reparations, and compensation would go away as well.” Israeli forces seized the facility in the Kafr Aqab neighbourhood near occupied East Jerusalem on Tuesday, with far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir participating and declaring that there was “no place for the agency in Jerusalem and Israel”. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended the evacuation as lawful under Israeli legislation and accused the agency of aiding Hamas in the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel. Saunders expressed “disappointment” over the impact on local young people, noting that the facility previously provided essential education and training. Some “340 young people are not going to get the education, not going to get the training they need”, Saunders said, stressing that the programme gives students “the skills and an opportunity to lead a full and dignified life”.
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Analysis
The Limits of China’s “No Limits” Partnership with Russia

The Limits of China’s “No Limits” Partnership with Russia

This analysis was prepared for commonspace.eu by Anna Szedlacsek, Junior Research Assistant at LINKS Europe ================================================ The relationship between Russia and China has become one of the most consequential strategic partnerships in contemporary international politics. Often portrayed as an emerging anti-Western alliance, the two countries have significantly expanded their cooperation in the diplomatic, military, economic and technological spheres. Their partnership is united above all by a shared interest in reducing Western – particularly American – influence and promoting a more multipolar international order. However, describing the relationship as a fully-fledged alliance risks overstating both its cohesion and durability.  The modern partnership between Russia and China began in earnest following the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Facing a new unipolar world dominated by the United States, both Moscow and Beijing realized that political alignment had become a strategic necessity to counterbalance American power. In 2001, the official framework for the modern partnership was solidified with the signing of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation by Russian President Vladimir Putin and general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Jiang Zemin. This treaty formally ended decades of border tensions, established regular communication channels between their militaries, and laid the groundwork for closer diplomatic coordination.  The partnership took a new turn after Xi Jinping took office in late 2012 and Vladimir Putin returned to the Russian presidency that same year. Driven by a shared goal of contesting U.S. global influence and preserving their respective authoritarian regimes, the two leaders dramatically deepened bureaucratic and military linkages.  Following Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and the resulting Western sanctions, Russia’s economy became heavily dependent on Beijing’s support. On February 4, 2022 – just before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine – Russia-China reached their all time high when Putin and Xi met in Beijing to publicly declare a "no limits" partnership with "no forbidden areas of cooperation." Since the start of the war, Russia has overwhelmingly become the partner more dependent on the other. Faced with a new array of international sanctions, the Kremlin was forced to rely on China for goods on the G7 Common High Priority Items List, including semiconductors, integrated circuits, lithium-ion batteries, and computer numerical control (CNC) machines for metal shaping. Similarly, an analysis of recovered Russian weapons conducted by the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) showed that the bulk of Russia’s foreign components are actually Western-made, with China funneling these Western parts to Russia through parallel imports, shell firms in jurisdictions like Hong Kong, and domestic Chinese facilities manufacturing Western designs.  (to read the full analysis click the image)