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There are two early 20th century tunes that mark foreign attempts to occupy and “pacify” Yemen. The Scottish tune “The barren rocks of Aden” marks the mobilization of Highland soldiers, enlisted to be deployed to the Yemeni port of Aden, that in 1837 became the last colony to be incorporated in the British Empire. The tune talks of the harshness of the terrain, but is celebratory, It was even played as a farewell tune to Sir William Luce at the parade in Sharjah celebrating his end as “British Viceroy” in the Middle East in 1966. The second tune is an Anatolian lament. As Ilker Sezer reminded us this weekend, in his weekly feature on “Turkiye Today”, it “mourns the tragic fate of Ottoman soldiers dispatched to the harsh, remote deserts of Yemen during the fall of the empire, young men who marched away from their villages and never returned home. Most of their names, and numbers, were never recorded. Yet, their fate left a mark on the Turkish psyche.” Subsequent invaders have discovered that Yemen is a grave that cannot be overcome by the strength of modern technology, and that whilst Yemeni society is splintered and divided, building a reliable alliance with Yemeni factions is difficult. These are the harsh lessons facing Saudi Arabia, as the Kingdom faces its biggest challenge in its modern history. The leadership of the Kingdom now has to respond decisively. At stake is their very credibility. This is likely to be a long and messy conflict. Saudi military objectives need to be focused: to box in the Houthis rather than destroy them. This is likely to include: (a) regaining territory lost on the Red Sea coast; (b) control over Bab el Mandeb Strait; (c) some kind of cordon sanitaire on the Saudi-Yemeni border; and if things go well (d) the capture of Sanaa. All this would not eliminate the Houthi problem, but it will contain it. In the end the Saudis will have to continue managing Yemen with a mixture of carrot and stick. For the moment the stick is likely, but the carrot cannot be forgotten either. (click the image to read the Monday Commentary in full)

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen gave her annual "State of the Union" speech to the European Parliament on Thursday (17 September). The speech was visionary in its scope and ambitious in what it seeks to achieve. But many who are familiar with the Brussels bureaucracy do not think that the system that von der Leyen heads, has the stamina, flexibility or even the will to deliver. Von der Leyen did not mince her words. Her opening statement laid out the vision and the ambition "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.' This is how Charles Dickens describes Europe in the days of the French Revolution. And it is also a fair description of the world we live in. The speed of change is incredible. The challenges exceptional. So if I look at Europe today, my take is this: the state of our Union is the strongest it has ever been. The state of our Union can also feel as precarious as it has ever been." Von der Leyen said she would propose a new security forum, A European Security Council, for EU and like-minded leaders in response to escalating Russian hybrid attacks and fraying transatlantic relations, with Canada, Ukraine, Norway, and the U.K. also be invited to join. Putting her point of view to the European Parliament, and being honest about the challenges ahead, was an important challenge. More difficult is the challenge that von der Leyen has, to convince the bureaucracy in the EU instituions in Brussels of the challenges ahead, and of the need to change and adapt to the new realities. This bureaucracy has often failed to deliver. Its too caught in its own labyrinth and comfort zone; has a problem with engaging with both EU citizens and the wider world; lacks the readiness to learn from its own mistakes, partly because of a flawed institutional memory, and is too slow to adjust. Von der Leyen has tried to fix some of these probelms, but with limited success. She needs to try harder! (click image to read the editorial comment in full)

Armenian and Azerbaijani senior officials have moved to reduce tensions that erupted following an outcry in Armenia after a visit by foreign diplomats to Karabakh and surrounding regions, and a subsequent reaction in Azerbaijan. Armenia’s Security Council Secretary Alen Simonyan has said that following the events that took place at Gandzasar Monastery, he spoke by phone with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s Assistant Hikmet Hajiyev. Responding to a question about whether he plans to publicly respond to Hajiyev’s statements regarding Gandzasar, Simonyan said at a press briefing that not all statements necessarily need to receive a public response. “I think everything has been said, and not everything that is said always needs a response. We need to realize whether this will change something or not. I can say something sharp now, respond in some way, we can all feel good for 15 minutes, but by doing so I could harm the negotiations,” Simonyan said. He stressed that the peace process requires a cautious approach. (click image to read more)