Diplomacy

Turkmenistan, for decades considered one of the most closed countries in the world, is moving towards modest attempts at opening up its economy. Western sanctions against Russia which caused a gradual halt to energy supply from Russia to Europe and swelling Russian gas supplies to China, once Turkmenistan’s almost-exclusive client, made Ashgabat face a new reality that challenged its longstanding economic model, resulting in a significant deterioration of living standards and social discontent. Against this background, the country had to start considering options for diversifying its gas export geography and attracting foreign investment, writes Murad Muradov in this analysis prepared for commonspace.eu. The big question remains however whether the long-cherished idea of the Transcaspian pipeline, a link which would bring Turkmenistan’s gas to European markets, will finally come to fruition after many years of aborted attempts and uncertainty. This may be within reach sooner and faster than expected.

The chairmanship of the Non-Aligned Movement, a grouping of 120 countries, mainly in the global South, passed on Friday morning from Azerbaijan to Uganda. President Yoweri Museveni was elected by acclamation as the chair of the 19th NAM Heads of State and Government Summit taking over from Ilham Aliyev. Azerbaijani foreign minister, Jeyhun Bayramov, represented the outgoing president Aliyev. He congratulated Uganda and President Museveni for assuming the NAM chairmanship and promised that his country will extend all the necessary support to ensure success of the movement. “Azerbaijan chairmanship has done its best to make the voice of our members heard in all possible platforms with successful initiatives and there’s no doubt that Uganda’s chairmanship will continue with this legacy, even further building upon it,” he said. “At this historic moment, after four years of proudly chairing the movement, we are handing over the chairmanship to the Republic of Uganda with a rich substantial and institutional legacy and we are confident that Uganda will further enhance the development feasibility of the movement and strengthen unity among its member states. I would like to reiterate that our passion and determination for the success of NAM will always remain strong and we will continue to contribute to the just cause.”

The African Union, European Union, and United States called Thursday (18 January) for an immediate cease-fire and constructive dialogue between warring factions in Sudan. They also called for an end to tension between Somalia and Ethiopia over an agreement signed between Ethiopia and Somalia’s breakaway region Somaliland. Representatives of the AU, EU and US spoke in Kampala, Uganda, after the meeting of an East African regional bloc. They said the two crises are threatening regional stability in the Horn of Africa. Annette Weber, the EU special envoy for the Horn of Africa, said the two crises have a common link with Red Sea, which she called a critical waterway carrying 10 percent of global cargo. Weber also said there needs to be a collective response among Horn of Africa countries against attacks on ships by Yemen-based Houthi rebels. Regarding Somalia, the AU, EU and US said they recognize the country’s sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity, including the breakaway region of Somaliland.

Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have become full members of BRICS as from 1 January. Iran's membership brought BRICS to Armenia's doorstep, making Yerevan an immediate neighbour of the group. Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu says that given that currently, Armenia is in the painstaking process of re-assessing and re-evaluating its foreign policy. Armenia should carefully look into ways to expand its cooperation with BRICS member states: "first of all in the economic area, inviting BRICS investments into the infrastructure and other projects in Armenia. Armenia is in active discussions with Iran, India, and UAE to bring their investments into Armenia, and there is potential to have Chinese involvement through the Belt and Road Initiative. The possibility of receiving funding from the BRICS New Development Bank for various projects, which can be implemented by BRICS member companies, should be studied too."

The six Gulf monarchies that form the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – project themselves as islands of peace and stability regardless of their difficult neighbourhood. For some time now their main focus has been the development of their economies – this to ensure that they can maintain their prosperity as the world transits away from hydrocarbon energy resources which up to now has been their main source of income. This they need to do not least to sustain the high standard of living to which their citizens have got used to. Ambitious plans, many costing tens of billions of euros to be implemented, are now in place. Most depend on peace, stability and tranquillity for their success. These attributes are these days in short supply in the wider region in which the GCC countries sit. An unprecedented level of war, crises and turmoil encircles the six countries. In this commentary commonspace.eu Managing Editor, Dr Dennis Sammut says that questions arise if the Gulf Monarchies have what it takes – not just in financial resources, and those things these resources can buy - but also in terms of wisdom, internal cohesion and strategic depth, to weather the storms of the future. Even if they are able to navigate the geopolitics of the moment, what impact is the tension that surrounds the region having on its domestic politics? Are the grandiose economic plans still viable, or is a more modest approach going to be necessary?