On March 18, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan suggested that Armenia might initiate a handover of control of four border villages to Azerbaijan. Speaking during a visit to the northern Tavush Province, Pashinyan emphasized that this step could serve as a preventive measure against any potential escalation on the border. The villages in question – Baghanis Ayrim, Ashagi Askipara, Kheyrimli, and Gizilhajili – were highlighted in early March by Pashinyan as never having been de jure part of Armenia's territory.
Occupied by Armenian forces during the first Karabakh war in the early 1990s, the four villages under discussion were situated within Azerbaijan's Gazakh District, and adjacent to Armenia's Tavush region when the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991. During the first Karabakh war, these villages witnessed some tragic events, as people were forcibly expelled. The scars of these events remain to this day, with the villages now empty and reduced to ghost villages.
The fate of these non-exclave villages has remained a focal point since the conclusion of the Second Karabakh War in 2020. During the period from 2020 to 2023, the issue of the return of the Gazakh villages was repeatedly raised by Azerbaijan. For instance, on October 7, 2023, during a call with the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, President Ilham Aliyev emphasized the importance of liberating these villages from occupation. The intensity of the issue escalated significantly from the beginning of 2024. In January, during his first interview of 2024, President Aliyev fielded questions from local TV channels, where he addressed the fate of eight Azerbaijani villages in Gazakh. He asserted that the four villages should be unconditionally returned to Azerbaijan.
Following his previous statements, Pashinyan continued to deliberate on the potential handover of territories during a closed-door meeting with members of the 'Civil Contract' faction in the Parliament on March 25. Reports from Armenian media indicate that Pashinyan hinted at an imminent withdrawal of the Third Army Corps from the specified territories. In his remarks, Pashinyan reiterated the prospect of returning four villages – identified as belonging to Azerbaijan – to their rightful owners.
The statements made by Pashinyan in mid-March followed the seventh meeting of the border commissions on 7 March, and the subsequent demand from Deputy Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Shahin Mustafayev on 9 March, urging the immediate release of these four villages. Mustafayev emphasized that any discussion of Azerbaijan occupying Armenian territory would be premature before the completion of the delimitation of the state border. Mustafayev's demand marks Azerbaijan's first explicit call for the return of these four villages, emphasizing the need for their immediate liberation.
The reluctance of Armenia to expedite the return of these villages can be attributed to various factors, one of which is the strategic significance of the respective territories. Armenia has on many occasions brought forward the argument that these villages, situated near a vital road connecting Armenia with Georgia and a pipeline facilitating gas supply from Russia, hold considerable importance for Yerevan in terms of infrastructure and regional connectivity. However, there are alternative routes that have been in use for years. In addition, it seems that Armenia already has some plans since Pashinyan also noted that there is a need to rebuild infrastructure in this area.
Secondly, the absence of a finalised agreement on the delimitation of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan is used by Armenian officials as an argument against the return of these villages. For instance, the Armenian Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure, Gnel Sanosyan, stated that resolving this issue requires a mutual agreement on the map to be used for delimiting and demarcating the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.
Another reason may also stem from internal political considerations and a lack of consensus within Armenian governmental circles. The decision to relinquish control over territories that have been under Armenian control for decades is likely to provoke domestic scrutiny and debate. As evidenced by former defence minister Seyran Ohanyan's warning, there are voices within Armenia cautioning against any handover of the villages due to concerns about the potential strategic implications. In addition, there is a significant backlash, particularly among residents of the Tavush Region, who harbour concerns about potential security threats. It seems that there is a broad sentiment within certain segments of Armenian society that views the relinquishment of control over these territories as detrimental to Armenian interests.
This territorial standoff between Baku and Yerevan raises concerns about the potential for escalation along the border if the situation is not carefully managed. However, the general trend in Armenia towards a recognition of Baku’s sovereign right to control the territories in question provides grounds for optimism. As Yerevan is trying to re-orient its foreign policy towards the West and diminish its dependence on Russia, the urgent need to resolve the contested issues with Azerbaijan upon the principles of international law is gradually gaining recognition among the political elites as the necessary condition for this shift. Inevitably, these villages will come under Azerbaijani control. Hence, it's prudent to address the issue promptly, returning the villages now to prevent further border tensions and safeguard an already fragile peace process from harm.
source: Gulkhanim Mammadova is a researcher with a focus on gender studies, peacebuilding, and conflict transformation. She received her BA in Political Sciences from the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan (2015–2019), and MA in Peace and Conflict Studies from the Social Sciences University of Ankara (2019 – 2021). She has also taken a graduate certificate course in conflict analyses and mediation at the University of San Diego in 2023. She was awarded multiple merit-based scholarships for her academic endeavours. She has taken part in numerous cross-border dialogues and youth projects, such as EU4Dialogue, Corridors, and Conflict School.
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