Ukraine and Eastern Europe

Poland has announced on Thursday (10 August) that it will station some 10,000 troops on its eastern border with Belarus. The decision comes after the Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on 29 July that Wagner Group mercenaries could infiltrate Poland from Belarus, where they are currently stationed. The Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said that the 10,000 soldiers will be moved to the country's border with Belarus "to scare away the aggressor so that it does not dare attack us", adding "we have to be ready for various scenarios, we do not exclude anything".

The Saudi Arabian port city of Jeddah is to host a global summit on reaching peace in Ukraine on Saturday (5 August). The summit will be attended by some 40 countries including many countries of the "Global South", as well as China. Russia was not invited to the talks, however, and Moscow has said that they will "monitor" the summit. The discussion and future implementation of Ukraine's Peace Formula, set out by President Volodymyr Zelensky during an address to the G20 in November, will be the subject of the summit in Jeddah.

On the night of Monday (24 July), Russia launched a wave of drone strikes on Ukrainian grain silos at the Danube river ports of Izmail and Reni, located only 200m from the Ukraine's border with NATO member state Romania. The airstrikes injured six people and damaged grain storage units. Ukraine's Southern Military Command said they shot down three drones out of a total of 15 launched at the facility.

Alarm is growing in Ukraine over the fate of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), which has been under Russian control since the opening weeks of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year. In his nightly address on Tuesday (4 July), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia is "preparing a provocation" at the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Citing Ukrainian intelligence, President Zelensky said that Russia has placed explosives on the roof of two power units, raising concerns that Russia could deliberately damage the power plant under their control to hinder Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensive. The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces also reported that Russia is preparing a strike "in the near future", adding that "their detonation should not damage power units but may create a picture of shelling by Ukraine's military". Zelensky also said that "now the whole world must realise that common security depends entirely on global attention to the occupiers' actions at the station". Earlier on 20 June, citing intelligence, President Zelensky also warned that Russia was considering attacking the NPP through radiation leakage.

Ukraine's counteroffensive against occupied Russian positions in the east and south of the country have continued in recent days, with Ukraine making small but steady gains in all directions, according to Ukrainian authorities. On Monday (26 June), Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar confirmed that Ukrainian forces had liberated one of two settlements in Donetsk Oblast called Rivnopil, with the liberated one being located close to the border with the neighbouring Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The Kyiv Independent writes that Rivnopil is the ninth settlement liberated by Ukrainian forces, in what has been a slow but steady counteroffensive that began in the early days of June. The other settlements recaptured by Ukraine include Lobkove, Levadne, Piatykhatky, and Novodarivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Donetsk Oblast's villages of Neskuchne, Storozheve, Makarivka, and Blahodatne. Elsewhere, on the Bakhmut axis in the eastern Donetsk Oblast, both the U.K. Ministry of Defense and Maliar reported Ukrainian advances.