Ukraine and Eastern Europe

Yesterday on Thursday (25 May), the Russian and Belarusian defence ministers Sergei Shoigu and Viktor Khrenin signed documents on placing Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus. According to the Russian state-controlled news agency Interfax, Shoigu said at the meeting that decisions over the control and use of the nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus would remain under the control of Russia.  Shoigu added that Russia may take "additional measures" in the future "to ensure the security of the Union State [of Russia and Belarus] and respond to the military-political situation". Russian President Vladimir Putin, and especially TV propagandists, have consistently threatened the West with nuclear weapons as Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine launched on 24 February last year has foundered. On 25 March this year, President Putin threatened to place tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus "for training", although Belarus has worked towards this development for some time.In their daily assessment of the Russian offensive campaign against Ukraine, the Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that the chance of Russia using the nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere is "extraordinarily unlikely".

The US Department of Defense has announced another package of military aid to Ukraine, this time totalling $375m. It is the 38th round of equipment sent to Ukraine by the US since August 2021. The statement released by the US Department of Defense on Sunday (21 May) following President Joe Biden's meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the G7 meeting in Japan details the capabilities included in the latest package. It will include further ammunition with HIMARS rocket systems that have wrought havoc on Russian troop and equipment concentrations since they were first supplied to Ukraine in June 2022. It will also supply Javelin anti-tank missiles and AT-4 anti-armour systems, as well as armoured bridging systems, logistics support, and thermal imagery systems. This latest package comes after Joe Biden signaled that he would authorise the third-party transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, something that Ukraine has pressured allies over for months. He would also support an international intiative to train Ukrainian pilots on the jets, he added while at the G7 summit in Japan.

The UK and The Netherlands have agreed to form an "international coalition" to assist Ukraine in acquiring F-16 fighter jets, the UK Government announced in a statement released on Tuesday (16 May). Meeting on the sidelines of the Council of Europe summit in Reykjavik, prime ministers Rishi Sunak and Mark Rutte "agreed they would work to build international coalition to provide Ukraine with combat air capabilities, supporting with everything from training to procuring F16 jets", the statement said. "The [British] Prime Minister reiterated his belief that Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO and the leaders agreed on the importance of allies providing long-term security assistance to Ukraine to guarantee they can deter against future attacks," the statement added. This development followed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's suggestion that Kyiv could expect to receive F-16 fighter jets soon, expressing optimism about crucial decisions being made with the support of the UK. On 15 May in London, Zelensky and Sunak engaged in a two-hour discussion during the former's second visit to the UK since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion.

An entire Russian brigade has reportedly fled the embattled town of Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine. This news was initially announced by the Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, and confirmed by Ukraine's Third Assault Brigade on Tuesday (9 May).  Russian forces have been trying to take the town for some 10 months, but have reportedly taken huge losses in the face of strong Ukrainian resistance. Bakhmut, which had a pre-war population of around 70,000, has been almost completely destroyed by the fighting. "Prigozhin's report about the escape of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces from Bakhmut and the '500 corpses' of Russians who remained there is true. The Third Assault Brigade is grateful for the publicity of our success at the front," the Third Assault Brigade wrote in a statement. Meanwhile, the leader of the Third Assault Brigade, Andriy Biletskiy, claimed that they had liberated a 3km x 2.6km strip of land south-west of Bakhmut in the process.