Ukraine and Eastern Europe

The presidents of Ukraine and the United States were both upbeat after their talks on Sunday (28 December), but clearly there is yet no agreement on how to end the war in Ukraine. Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky said progress had been made during Florida talks but the US president admitted the problem of territory remained "unresolved". While both the US and Ukrainian presidents described the talks as "great", Trump said "one or two very thorny issues" remained outstanding - most notably on the issue of land. Addressing reporters at Mar-a-Lago, Zelensky said they had come to an agreement on "90%" of the 20-point peace plan, while Trump said a security guarantee for Ukraine was "close to 95%" done. Zelensky later said US and Ukrainian teams would meet next week for further talks on issues aimed at ending Russia's nearly four-year war in Ukraine. "We had a substantive conversation on all issues and highly value the progress that the Ukrainian and American teams have made over the past weeks," Zelensky said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Moscow currently controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory. A proposal to turn the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, which Russia largely controls, into a demilitarised zone remains "unresolved", Trump said. "Some of that land has been taken," he told reporters after the meeting. "Some of that land is maybe up for grabs, but it may be taken over the next period of a number of months." Moscow currently controls about 75% of the Donetsk region, and some 99% of the neighbouring Luhansk. The regions are collectively known as Donbas. Russia wants Ukraine to pull back from the small part of the territory it still controls in Donbas, while Kyiv has insisted the area could become a free economic zone policed by Ukrainian forces. The US president has repeatedly changed his own position on Ukraine's lost territories, and in September stunned observers by suggesting that Ukraine might be able to take it back. He later reversed course. "[That] is a very tough issue," he said. "One that will get resolved." Security guarantees for Ukraine are "95% done", Trump said, without formally committing to logistical support or troop deployment to help protect Ukraine from future attacks. Trump floated the possibility of trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, saying it could happen "at the right time". Immediately after their bilateral talks, Trump and Zelensky held a one hour meeting with European leaders. European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, wrote on X "We had a good hour-long conversation with President Trump and Zelensky. Several European leaders were present and discussed future peace talks. Good progress has been made. Europe stands ready to work with its partners to consolidate this."  

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with US president, Donald Trump, in Florida on Sunday (28 December) in what many see as crucial talks on the future of Ukraine. The time of the meeting between president Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and US president Donald Trump, in Florida today, has been moved to 1300 hours local time. A Ukrainian delegation arrived in the United States to participate in a meeting between the two presidents. Yesterday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the composition of Ukraine's negotiating team: National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov, Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Andriy Hnatov, non-staff adviser to the head of the Presidential Office Oleksandr Bevz, and First Deputy Foreign Minister Serhiy Kyslytsya. On Saturday, the Ukrainian president outlined five thematic areas covered in the "peace plan" negotiations and which he wants to discuss with Trump at the meeting: "We are discussing security guarantees between Ukraine and the United States. This is one document. We are also discussing security guarantees with Europe. We are discussing the military dimension. This is part of the security guarantees." The fourth section he mentioned was a "prosperity plan, which will include many other documents," which includes discussions on raising up to $800 billion for Ukraine's reconstruction and creating a number of funds. "And fifth, what we want to discuss with the president is a plan of consistent action. That is, we want to propose, step by step, how to ensure that all the plans I've already mentioned actually work. They will, of course, discuss all of this with the Russians, and we will receive feedback," Zelenskyy stated.

Thirty-four countries and the European Union have signed a new convention establishing an International Claims Commission for Ukraine at a diplomatic conference co-hosted by the 46-nation Council of Europe and the Netherlands in the Hague. The diplomatic conference was attended by leaders and high-level representatives from over 50 states, including the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, and the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Dick Schoof.  “Today marks a major step forward in ensuring accountability for Ukraine. The International Claims Commission represents justice and hope for tens of thousands of victims—our determination that those who have suffered will not be forgotten. I call for quick ratifications so we can get the commission rapidly up and running for the people of Ukraine,” said Council of Europe Secretary General Alain Berset. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “We expect that every mechanism for compensation from the Register of Damage and Claims Commission to the actual payments – will start working and receive strong and sufficient international support, so that people can truly feel that any kind of damage caused by the war can be compensated. This war, and Russia’s responsibility for it, MUST become a clear example – so that others learn not to choose aggression.” “Accountability is about creating the conditions for peace that endures. And therefore, accountability is a condition of security – today and for the future. But accountability is not only about Ukraine. And it is not only about one aggressor and one victim. Accountability is about Europe. About every country in Europe. It is about whether Europe, as a whole, is willing to defend its peace,” said Maia Sandu, President of the Republic of Moldova, which currently holds the Presidency of the Council of Europe’s Committee of Ministers. The Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Dick Schoof, said: “Every day Russia is deliberately bombarding homes, destroying businesses and damaging infrastructure in Ukraine. Russia must compensate Ukraine for the damage caused. That is why we have launched the International Claims Commission for Ukraine and we are honoured to host it.” The International Claims Commission will be the second part of a comprehensive compensation mechanism related to Russia’s war of aggression, building on the existing Register of Damage for Ukraine. The claims commission will be established within the framework of the Council of Europe and will also be open to other countries. The Register of Damage for Ukraine, created in 2023, collects and records compensation claims submitted by individuals, organisations and public bodies in Ukraine. Forty-four states and the European Union have so far joined the Register, which has already received 86,000 claims. The International Claims Commission will review, assess and decide upon claims submitted to the Register of Damage for Ukraine and determine the amount of compensation, if any, which is due in each case. The convention establishing the commission will enter into force once it has been ratified by 25 signatories, as long as sufficient funds have been secured to support its initial work.

The leaders of Germany, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, and United Kingdom, together with the President of the European Council, and the President of the European Commission, o  Monday (15 December) issued a statement, outlining their plan for Ukraine. In their statement, Chancellor Merz, Prime Minister Frederiksen, President Stubb, President Macron, Prime Minister Meloni, Prime Minister Schoof, Prime Minister Støre, Prime Minister Tusk, Prime Minister Kristersson, Prime Minister Starmer, as well as President Costa and President von der Leyen spoke about "Peace for Ukraine". The Leaders welcomed significant progress on President Trump’s efforts to secure a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. They also welcomed the close work between President Zelenskyy’s and President Trump’s teams as well as European teams over the recent days and weeks. They agreed to work together with President Trump and President Zelenskyy to get to a lasting peace which preserves Ukrainian sovereignty and European security. Leaders appreciated the strong convergence between the United States, Ukraine and Europe. Leaders agreed that ensuring the security, sovereignty, and prosperity of Ukraine was integral for wider Euro-Atlantic security. They were clear that Ukraine and its people deserved a prosperous, independent, and sovereign future, free from fear of future Russian aggression. Both the US and European leaders committed to work together to provide robust security guarantees and economic recovery support measures for Ukraine in the context of an agreement on ending the war. This would include commitments to: Provide sustained and significant support to Ukraine to build its armed forces, which should remain at a peacetime level of 800,000 to be able to deter conflict and defend Ukraine’s territory. A European-led ‘multinational force Ukraine’ made up from contributions from willing nations within the framework of the Coalition of the Willing and supported by the US. It will assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine. (Click the image to read the statement in full).

Russia could attack a NATO country within the next five years, the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, said in a stark new warning. "NATO's own defences can hold for now," Rutte warned in Berlin, but conflict was "next door" to Europe, and he feared "too many are quietly complacent, and too many don't feel the urgency, too many believe that time is on our side. "Russia is already escalating its covert campaign against our societies," Rutte said in a speech in Germany. "We must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured." Earlier this month, Russia's President Vladimir Putin said his country was not planning to go to war with Europe, but it was ready "right now" if Europe wanted to - or started a war. But similar reassurances were given by Moscow in 2022, just before 200,000 Russian troops crossed the border and invaded Ukraine. Putin has accused European countries of hindering US efforts to bring peace in Ukraine - a reference to the role Ukraine's European allies have recently played in trying to change a US peace plan to end the war, whose initial draft was seen as favouring Russia. But Putin was not sincere, Nato's secretary-general said in the German capital, Berlin. Supporting Ukraine, he added, was a guarantee for European security. "Just imagine if Putin got his way; Ukraine under the boot of Russian occupation, his forces pressing against a longer border with Nato, and the significantly increased risk of an armed attack against us." Russia's economy has been on a war footing for more than three years now - its factories churn out ever more supplies of drones, missiles and artillery shells. According to a recent report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Russia has been producing each month around 150 tanks, 550 infantry fighting vehicles, 120 Lancet drones and more than 50 artillery pieces. The UK, and most of its Western allies, are simply not anywhere near this point. Analysts say it would take years for Western Europe's factories to come close to matching Russia's mass-production of weapons. "Allied defence spending and production must rise rapidly, our armed forces must have what they need to keep us safe," the Nato chief said.