Ukraine and Eastern Europe

The leaders of Germany, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, and United Kingdom, together with the President of the European Council, and the President of the European Commission, o  Monday (15 December) issued a statement, outlining their plan for Ukraine. In their statement, Chancellor Merz, Prime Minister Frederiksen, President Stubb, President Macron, Prime Minister Meloni, Prime Minister Schoof, Prime Minister Støre, Prime Minister Tusk, Prime Minister Kristersson, Prime Minister Starmer, as well as President Costa and President von der Leyen spoke about "Peace for Ukraine". The Leaders welcomed significant progress on President Trump’s efforts to secure a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. They also welcomed the close work between President Zelenskyy’s and President Trump’s teams as well as European teams over the recent days and weeks. They agreed to work together with President Trump and President Zelenskyy to get to a lasting peace which preserves Ukrainian sovereignty and European security. Leaders appreciated the strong convergence between the United States, Ukraine and Europe. Leaders agreed that ensuring the security, sovereignty, and prosperity of Ukraine was integral for wider Euro-Atlantic security. They were clear that Ukraine and its people deserved a prosperous, independent, and sovereign future, free from fear of future Russian aggression. Both the US and European leaders committed to work together to provide robust security guarantees and economic recovery support measures for Ukraine in the context of an agreement on ending the war. This would include commitments to: Provide sustained and significant support to Ukraine to build its armed forces, which should remain at a peacetime level of 800,000 to be able to deter conflict and defend Ukraine’s territory. A European-led ‘multinational force Ukraine’ made up from contributions from willing nations within the framework of the Coalition of the Willing and supported by the US. It will assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine. (Click the image to read the statement in full).

Russia could attack a NATO country within the next five years, the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, said in a stark new warning. "NATO's own defences can hold for now," Rutte warned in Berlin, but conflict was "next door" to Europe, and he feared "too many are quietly complacent, and too many don't feel the urgency, too many believe that time is on our side. "Russia is already escalating its covert campaign against our societies," Rutte said in a speech in Germany. "We must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured." Earlier this month, Russia's President Vladimir Putin said his country was not planning to go to war with Europe, but it was ready "right now" if Europe wanted to - or started a war. But similar reassurances were given by Moscow in 2022, just before 200,000 Russian troops crossed the border and invaded Ukraine. Putin has accused European countries of hindering US efforts to bring peace in Ukraine - a reference to the role Ukraine's European allies have recently played in trying to change a US peace plan to end the war, whose initial draft was seen as favouring Russia. But Putin was not sincere, Nato's secretary-general said in the German capital, Berlin. Supporting Ukraine, he added, was a guarantee for European security. "Just imagine if Putin got his way; Ukraine under the boot of Russian occupation, his forces pressing against a longer border with Nato, and the significantly increased risk of an armed attack against us." Russia's economy has been on a war footing for more than three years now - its factories churn out ever more supplies of drones, missiles and artillery shells. According to a recent report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Russia has been producing each month around 150 tanks, 550 infantry fighting vehicles, 120 Lancet drones and more than 50 artillery pieces. The UK, and most of its Western allies, are simply not anywhere near this point. Analysts say it would take years for Western Europe's factories to come close to matching Russia's mass-production of weapons. "Allied defence spending and production must rise rapidly, our armed forces must have what they need to keep us safe," the Nato chief said.

The UN General Assembly, in a vote on Wednesday (3 December) overwhelmingly voted in favour of a resolution demanding that Russia returns Ukrainian children kidnapped since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022. 91 countries voted in favour of the resolution, 12 voted against, and 57 countries abstained or were not present. Russia and Belarus were joined by ten countries in voting against the resolution, namely, Iran, Cuba, Nicaragua, Burundi, Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, and Eritrea. From the South Caucasus, Georgia voted in favour of the resolution, but Armenia and Azerbaijan abstained, as did Turkiye and the five Central Asian republics. Also abstaining were the six Gulf monarchies and most Arab countries. The resolution calls for the immediate return of Ukrainian children who were deported to Russia. The Ukrainian government says more than 19,000 children have been taken away from Russian-occupied areas and elsewhere since Moscow's invasion began in February of 2022. The draft resolution submitted on Wednesday demands that Russia "ensure the immediate, safe and unconditional return" of the children. (Read more by clicking the image)

Talks were held in Geneva on Sunday (23 November) between the United States and Ukraine. Also present in Geneva were representatives of the key European countries, France, Germany and UK, and the EU. The talks are expected to continue today. The future if Ukraine is at stake, and so is the future of Europe. There should be no doubt that Putin’s ambitions do not stop in Kiev. The talks are expected to continue today (24 November), and Ukraine’s de facto capitulation is not an option for Europe. The scandalous draft of the plan called “the US plan”, but probably written by the Russians, appears to have been put aside. Officially it is still called the “US plan”, that is what the ego of US president, Donald Trump, requires. But it started to look increasingly like the plan put forward by the Europeans, which is much closer to the Ukrainian position. The Europeans were not represented in Geneva by Ministers and politicians, but by their national security advisors, somber men who are cool and calculating. They have a difficult task: on the one hand they understand very well that Ukraine’s war is Europe’s war, and they know better than anyone else how big the threat of Putin’s Russia is to European peace and security. The risks of the “original US plan” are obvious to them. But they also understand that Ukraine, and up to now Europe, depend on the US for their security. So, they cannot alienate the American president too much. US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, well understands the European dilemma. He finds himself in the unenviable position of needing to reconcile his president’s views, with the Ukrainian and European one. At stake is Ukraine’s future as a state. Ukrainian president Vlodomyr Zelenkiy quaintly calls it “Ukraine’s dignity”. But it is much more than that. Russia does not want Ukraine to exist as a state in any meaningful way. It should either have a puppet government, as it wanted to impose on Kiev when it launched the invasion in February 2022; or be so weak and dismembered that it will be in all but name a vassal of Russia. Whatever is finally agreed in Geneva, and whatever Donald Trump finally decides, 2026 is going to be a crucial year for Ukraine. European support has so far been steady, but must become steadier, regardless of Trumpian shenanigans. 2026 must be the year of European Ukraine. For this to happen their must be more resolve in Europe, and a stronger determination to support Ukraine fully. (read the full commentary by clicking on the image).

When Volodymyr Zelensky ran for office to become president of Ukraine in 2019, many did not take him seriously. Here was a person who had become famous as an actor, playing the role of an imaginary president in a television soap opera, wanting to get the real thing. In 2021/22, he, on his part, did not take seriously warnings about an imminent Russian invasion. He thought he could negotiate with Putin the future of Ukraine. He did not understand the contempt that Putin had for him, and indeed for the entire Ukrainian nation. The invasion marked the birth of a new Zelensky, and a new Ukraine. As Russian troops approached Kyiv, Zelensky, although he knew that he was a primary target that the Russians wanted to eliminate, refused offers to be evacuated, and said that he would stay on and resist. Most Ukrainians said the same. Ukraine is emerging from the war bruised but strong. In the war, the country has found itself. It has the potential and the self-confidence necessary to succeed. The war has enabled Ukraine to emerge from the shadow of Russia. Untangible as this concept is, it is the key issue that will define the country’s future. And Zelensky? Not by his own choice Zelensky ended up being a wartime leader. He did that very well. It is likely that when the war ends the Ukrainian people will want to move on to another leader that will be able to lead Ukraine in peace. But Volodymyr Zelensky has already earned a place in the history of Ukraine, and of Europe.