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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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Israeli parliament votes to bring back the death penalty, but only for Palestinians

Israeli parliament votes to bring back the death penalty, but only for Palestinians

srael’s parliament approved a bill on Monday that would allow the execution of Palestinians convicted on terror charges for deadly attacks, a move that has been criticized as discriminatory and immediately drew a court challenge. Sixty-two lawmakers, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, voted in favor and 48 against the bill, championed by far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir. There was one abstention and the rest of the lawmakers were not present. Ben Gvir in the run-up to the vote had worn a lapel pin in the shape of a noose, symbolising his support for the legislation. “We made history!!! We promised. We delivered,” he posted on X after the vote. The bill would make the death penalty the default punishment for Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank found guilty of intentionally carrying out deadly attacks deemed “acts of terrorism” by an Israeli military court. The bill says that the sentence may be reduced to life imprisonment under “special circumstances.” Palestinians in the West Bank are automatically tried in Israeli military courts. Meanwhile, under the bill, in Israeli criminal courts anyone “who intentionally causes the death of a person with the aim of harming an Israeli citizen or resident out of an intention to put an end to the existence of the State of Israel shall be sentenced to death or life imprisonment.” Criminal courts try Israeli nationals, including Palestinian citizens and residents of east Jerusalem. The bill sets the execution method as hanging, adding that it should be carried out within 90 days of the sentencing, with a possible postponement of up to 180 days. - ‘Parallel tracks’ - The bill appears to conflict with Israel’s Basic Laws, which prohibit arbitrary discrimination, and shortly after it was passed, a leading human rights group announced that it had filed a petition with the Supreme Court demanding the legislation’s annulment. “The law creates two parallel tracks, both designed to apply to Palestinians,” the Association for Civil Rights in Israel said in a statement. “In military courts — which have jurisdiction over West Bank Palestinians — it establishes a near-mandatory death sentence,” the rights group said. In civilian courts, the law’s stipulation that defendants must have acted “with the aim of negating the existence” of Israel “structurally excludes Jewish perpetrators,” the group added. The association argued the law should be annulled on both jurisdictional and constitutional grounds. During the debate in parliament, opposition lawmaker and former deputy Mossad director, Ram Ben Barak, expressed outrage at the legislation. “Do you understand what it means that there is one law for Arabs in Judea and Samaria, and a different law for the general public for which the State of Israel is responsible?” he asked fellow parliamentarians, using the Israeli name for the West Bank. “It says that Hamas has defeated us. It has defeated us because we have lost all our values.” - ‘Discriminatory application’ - Lawmaker Limor Son Har-Melech from Ben Gvir’s party, who years ago survived an attack by Palestinian militants in which her husband was killed, urged fellow parliamentarians to approve the bill. “For years, we endured a cruel cycle of terror, imprisonment, release in reckless deals, and the return of these human monsters to murder Jews again ... And today, my friends, this cycle has come full circle.” The Palestinian Authority condemned the law’s adoption, saying that “Israel has no sovereignty over Palestinian land.” “This law once again reveals the nature of the Israeli colonial system, which seeks to legitimize extrajudicial killing under legislative cover,” it added. In February, Amnesty International had urged Israeli lawmakers to reject the legislation, citing its “discriminatory application against Palestinians.” On Sunday, Britain, France, Germany and Italy expressed “deep concern” over the bill, which they said risked “undermining Israel’s commitments with regards to democratic principles.” While the death penalty exists for a small number of crimes in Israel, it has become a de facto abolitionist country — the Nazi Holocaust perpetrator Adolf Eichmann was the last person to be executed in 1962. Israel has occupied the West Bank since 1967 and violence there has soared since Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel triggered the Gaza war. (read more by clicking the image above).
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GULF CRISIS
Quadrilateral foreign ministers meeting in Pakistan set the tone for future US-Iran  talks

Quadrilateral foreign ministers meeting in Pakistan set the tone for future US-Iran talks

The Foreign Ministers of Türkiye, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan met for the second time this month in the new quadrilateral format. The aim  of the meeting was primarily to support Pakistan's efforts to initiate US-Iran talks. The first meeting was held in Riyadh on March 19. Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar on Sunday (29 March) said both the United States and Iran had expressed confidence in Pakistan to facilitate talks aimed at ending the ongoing United States-Israeli war on Iran, following “very productive consultations” among Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Egypt amid the rapidly escalating Middle East conflict. Speaking in a televised address after the high-level quadrilateral meeting in Islamabad, attended by the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Egypt, Dar described the consultations as “candid, constructive and focused on exploring pathways to de-escalation.” Dar said the four foreign ministers held an in-depth discussion on the evolving regional situation and deliberated on “possible ways to bring an early and permanent end to the war in the region.” He noted that all participants expressed deep concern over the devastating human and economic toll of the conflict. “We agreed that this war is not in favour of anyone and would only lead to death and destruction. The unity of the Muslim Ummah in these challenging times is of utmost importance,” he added. Dar said he also briefed the visiting  ministers on the prospects of potential US-Iran talks in Islamabad. “The visiting foreign ministers expressed their fullest support to this initiative,” he said, adding that the participants reaffirmed unity to contain the situation, reduce risks of further military escalation, and create conditions for structured negotiations. “The foreign ministers advocated dialogue and diplomacy as the only viable pathway to prevent conflict and promote regional peace and harmony. They also called for upholding the principles of the United Nations Charter, including respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states,” he said. He further said the four countries agreed to strengthen mutual cooperation and decided to constitute a committee comprising senior officials from their respective foreign ministries to work out modalities for future coordination through consensus. (Click the picture to read the full story)
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Zelensky of Arabia

Zelensky of Arabia

Ukrainian president, Volodomyr Zelensky, has just ended a tour to some of the Arab monarchies of the Gulf, during which he visited Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. For the past four years the Gulf countries have been lukewarm in their support for Ukraine, as it fought off an unprovoked Russian invasion. In these four years a steadfast Ukraine has developed the skills, and the equipment, to resist the continuous attack by Russian drones, most of which provided by Iran. Now the Arab Gulf states unexpectedly find themselves fighting off a similar threat, as Iran fires drones and missiles at them as it widens the conflict started by the US and Israel four weeks ago. Ukraine's experience and equipment are now desperately needed by the Arab Gulf countries. During the trip Zelensky managed to convince his Arab hosts to turn the page. He offered them Ukraine's equipment and expertise in their present predicament. His offer was gladly accepted. Two hundred Ukrainian advisors are already in the region. The Gulf countries will buy Ukrainian equipment and expertise. This is not just a transactional step. It is an important shift that will have long term implications. Ukraine is set to become a long term  strategic partner of Ukraine, as the sides agree on joint long term co-operation in anti-drone technology. The visit of Zelensky to the Arab Gulf monarchies further isolates Russia, and especially the Russian approach to Ukraine. It also cements a relationship that is important for both Ukraine and the GCC.