A preliminary memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran was agreed on Thursday (28 May), emerging as one of the most concrete diplomatic developments of the war so far. Writing for Arab News, Hassan Al-Mustafa reported that the memorandum's primary provisions focus on the consolidation of a renewable truce, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the removal of naval mines, the allowing of the passage of commercial ships and oil tankers without fees, and a gradual easing of economic restrictions on Iran (note, it postpones the negotiations on the nuclear issue entirely). The memorandum, importantly, is not a finalized peace deal but rather a genuine attempt to establish a safe transition from war to the negotiating table. And hence, as reported by Hassan Al-Mustafa, it leaves some obstacles along the way: whether Iran‘s opening of the Strait will be full and instant or gradual and conditional; whether sanctions relief will precede or follow nuclear commitments; whether Iran will commit to restraining and holding back its allied groups in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen; and whether US President Trump will succeed in separating the Iran track from his desire to expand the Abraham Accords, especially given that Saudi Arabia has coupled any recognition of Israel to a credible road map toward Palestinian statehood. Another factor defining the success of the memorandum of understanding comes from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s participation in a group call with Trump and the leaders of Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, Egypt, Türkiye, and Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, but reflects Riyadh’s determination that an understanding with Tehran must be embedded in an integrated regional security framework, beyond a bilateral deal between Washington and Tehran alone. (To read the full briefing, click on the image above.)

Parliamentary Elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia next Sunday (7 June). The Armenians will vote for a new parliament, and the leader of the winning party will become the prime minister, and will form the government. The incumbent, Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power in a peaceful “velvet” revolution in 2018, is defending his eventful record against a spirited, well resourced, opposition. The Armenian people have a choice in the coming election, and a clear one. It is important to state clearly, and at the outset, that it is up to the Armenians to make this choice. Outsiders should not interfere. The next Armenian government will have important choices to make, at both the domestic and international level, and it must have the clear mandate, and the legitimacy of a popular vote, to deliver these choices. But it seems that this does not fit the needs of Putin’s Russia. Over the last days Russia has openly interfered in Armenian politics, using the leverages it accumulated over the years. Putin has made it clear that he will not tolerate an independent minded Armenian government. Armenia was since its independence in 1991, a compliant “partner” of Russia, and fitted into Vladimir Putin’s grand strategy of surrounding Russia with countries, that whilst nominally independent, depended on Russia for their defence, economy, foreign policy, and indeed for their survival. Any attempts at independent thinking or action was to be crushed. Look what happened to Ukraine. Armenia was told bluntly that the same could happen to it. Armenia’s big “sin” was that it expressed the wish to join the European Union. Everyone knows that this was an aspiration, rather than a decision. EU membership takes years, decades even, to negotiate. If the process starts officially now, and it has not, it will probably take twenty years to become a reality. But Putin is not taking chances. He will not allow Armenia to escape Russian clutches, even if that escape is only aspirational. Russia is trying to intimidate the Armenian people, prior to Sunday’s vote., accompanied by a barrage of disinformation emanating from Moscow, This process must be watched carefully. Western leaders have visited Armenia in the last month, for the EPC Summit, for the Armenia-EU summit, and most recently last week the short visit of US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. Their presence in Yerevan was a message to Moscow: we will not allow you to do in Armenia what you did in Ukraine. Sunday, the Armenian people, will make their decision. They should be allowed to make that decision freely, and without pressure. Everyone should thereafter respect that decision. (Click the image to read the Monday Commentary in full, or listen to the audio).