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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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GULF CRISIS
UN Security Council issues toned down statement on the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz

UN Security Council issues toned down statement on the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz

On Thursday (2 April), the Security Council held a high-level briefing  focusing on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Bahraini Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani is expected to chaired the meeting, which is one of the signature events of Bahrain’s April Council presidency. Briefings were made by UN Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations (DPPA-DPO) Mohamed Khaled Khiari and GCC Secretary-General Jasem Mohamed Al-Budaiwi. A Bahrain authored presidential statement was adopted. On Thursday (2 April), the Security Council held a high-level briefing  focusing on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Bahraini Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani is expected to chaired the meeting, which is one of the signature events of Bahrain’s April Council presidency. Briefings were made by UN Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations (DPPA-DPO) Mohamed Khaled Khiari and GCC Secretary-General Jasem Mohamed Al-Budaiwi. A Bahrain authored presidential statement was adopted. On Thursday (2 April), the Security Council held a high-level briefing  focusing on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Bahraini Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani is expected to chaired the meeting, which is one of the signature events of Bahrain’s April Council presidency. Briefings were made by UN Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations (DPPA-DPO) Mohamed Khaled Khiari and GCC Secretary-General Jasem Mohamed Al-Budaiwi. A Bahrain authored presidential statement was adopted but at the insistence 0f Russia and China the statement avoids tough language on the Strait of Hormuz. Certain other aspects of the negotiations on the draft presidential statement were also apparently challenging. It seems that the primary point of contention was language relating to the escalation in the Middle East caused by the joint Israeli-US strikes on Iran on 28 February. In the zero draft, the penholder proposed text that strongly condemned Iran’s retaliatory attacks on the GCC countries and Jordan, directly referencing the resolution2817 of 11 March on the matter that was presented by Bahrain on behalf of these countries. The relevant paragraph also included language that reaffirmed the importance of maritime security and the freedom of navigation and stressed that “any disruption to vital waterways may have implications for international trade and global economic stability”, an apparent reference to the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis. During the negotiations on resolution 2817, China and Russia apparently criticised the draft text for being unbalanced and for failing to consider the root causes of the conflict. In response, Russia circulated an alternative draft, which was more general than Bahrain’s and did not name individual countries. Co-sponsored by 136 member states, Bahrain’s resolution was eventually adopted with 13 votes in favour and two abstentions (China and Russia). Russia’s draft resolution failed to be adopted, garnering only four affirmative votes (China, Russia, Pakistan, and Somalia).   It seems that the same dynamics were evident during the negotiations on the draft presidential statement. China and Russia apparently raised reservations over the language concerning the Middle East crisis, requesting modifications to the relevant paragraph. In the first revised text, Bahrain apparently retained the zero draft’s language that directly alluded to Iran’s attacks and resolution 2817; however, the text was slightly modified to also reference resolution 552 of 1 June 1984, which demanded that Iran cease attacks on commercial ships to and from the ports of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. This appeared to be the penholder’s attempt to preserve the paragraph’s original formulation and intent, as similar language on threats against Gulf countries, including to their freedom of navigation, was included in resolution 552. However, it seems that China and Russia expressed concerns over the paragraph, requesting further amendments to the text. To facilitate consensus among Council members, the penholder softened the relevant paragraph’s language in the second revised text, removing all direct references to Iran’s attacks on the GCC countries and Jordan. In doing so, Bahrain apparently replaced it with text that recalled previous relevant Council resolutions, including resolution 2817 and resolution 552, that “take into consideration the importance of the Gulf region to international peace and security and its vital role to the stability of the world economy”. Despite such revisions, China and Russia nevertheless raised concerns, expressing reservations over references to resolution 552 and resolution 2817. In an apparent compromise, the final draft of the presidential statement does not incorporate any direct references to Iran’s attacks against the Gulf countries, nor does it mention the two resolutions. The penholder also removed all language that underscored the importance of freedom of navigation and noted the implications of any disruption to vital waterways for international trade and global economic stability. The toned-down final version of the relevant paragraph simply recalls the Council’s previous relevant resolutions, “which take into consideration the importance of the Gulf region to international peace and security and its vital role to the stability of the world economy”.(Click the image to read the full item).
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News
Armenian leader meets Putin in the Kremlin

Armenian leader meets Putin in the Kremlin

Armenian prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, met at the Kremlin in Moscow, on Wednesday 1, April, with Russian president Vladimir Putin. The current state and prospects of Russian-Armenian strategic partnership and alliance, integration cooperation in the Eurasian region, and current issues on the regional agenda, in particular the development of economic and transport-logistics ties in the South Caucasus, were discussed, according to the Kremlin website. In his remarks before the meeting, Prime Minister Pashinyan said our relations with the Russian Federation are very deep, they are very important to us, and, in my opinion, they are developing dynamically in the context of the new realities in our region, when peace has finally been established between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And I think this has a positive impact on our relations with the Russian Federation, because for the first time since our independence, we have a railway connection with the Russian Federation. We import goods from Russia via Azerbaijan by rail. I hope we will also export in the near future. This, of course, strengthens our traditional economic ties, and it strengthens our ties within the Eurasian Economic Union. Regarding the European Union, of course, we know that, in principle, membership in the two associations is incompatible. But what we're doing and the agenda we have, at least for now, are compatible. That's a fact. And as long as there's an opportunity to combine these agendas, we will. And when processes develop to the point where a decision must be made, I'm confident that we, the citizens of the Republic of Armenia, will make that decision. Of course, in this context, our relations with the Russian Federation have never been and never will be in question, because, as I have already said, these ties and relations are very deep and not subject to discussion. (read the report in full by clicking the image at the top).
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Israeli parliament votes to bring back the death penalty, but only for Palestinians

Israeli parliament votes to bring back the death penalty, but only for Palestinians

srael’s parliament approved a bill on Monday that would allow the execution of Palestinians convicted on terror charges for deadly attacks, a move that has been criticized as discriminatory and immediately drew a court challenge. Sixty-two lawmakers, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, voted in favor and 48 against the bill, championed by far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir. There was one abstention and the rest of the lawmakers were not present. Ben Gvir in the run-up to the vote had worn a lapel pin in the shape of a noose, symbolising his support for the legislation. “We made history!!! We promised. We delivered,” he posted on X after the vote. The bill would make the death penalty the default punishment for Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank found guilty of intentionally carrying out deadly attacks deemed “acts of terrorism” by an Israeli military court. The bill says that the sentence may be reduced to life imprisonment under “special circumstances.” Palestinians in the West Bank are automatically tried in Israeli military courts. Meanwhile, under the bill, in Israeli criminal courts anyone “who intentionally causes the death of a person with the aim of harming an Israeli citizen or resident out of an intention to put an end to the existence of the State of Israel shall be sentenced to death or life imprisonment.” Criminal courts try Israeli nationals, including Palestinian citizens and residents of east Jerusalem. The bill sets the execution method as hanging, adding that it should be carried out within 90 days of the sentencing, with a possible postponement of up to 180 days. - ‘Parallel tracks’ - The bill appears to conflict with Israel’s Basic Laws, which prohibit arbitrary discrimination, and shortly after it was passed, a leading human rights group announced that it had filed a petition with the Supreme Court demanding the legislation’s annulment. “The law creates two parallel tracks, both designed to apply to Palestinians,” the Association for Civil Rights in Israel said in a statement. “In military courts — which have jurisdiction over West Bank Palestinians — it establishes a near-mandatory death sentence,” the rights group said. In civilian courts, the law’s stipulation that defendants must have acted “with the aim of negating the existence” of Israel “structurally excludes Jewish perpetrators,” the group added. The association argued the law should be annulled on both jurisdictional and constitutional grounds. During the debate in parliament, opposition lawmaker and former deputy Mossad director, Ram Ben Barak, expressed outrage at the legislation. “Do you understand what it means that there is one law for Arabs in Judea and Samaria, and a different law for the general public for which the State of Israel is responsible?” he asked fellow parliamentarians, using the Israeli name for the West Bank. “It says that Hamas has defeated us. It has defeated us because we have lost all our values.” - ‘Discriminatory application’ - Lawmaker Limor Son Har-Melech from Ben Gvir’s party, who years ago survived an attack by Palestinian militants in which her husband was killed, urged fellow parliamentarians to approve the bill. “For years, we endured a cruel cycle of terror, imprisonment, release in reckless deals, and the return of these human monsters to murder Jews again ... And today, my friends, this cycle has come full circle.” The Palestinian Authority condemned the law’s adoption, saying that “Israel has no sovereignty over Palestinian land.” “This law once again reveals the nature of the Israeli colonial system, which seeks to legitimize extrajudicial killing under legislative cover,” it added. In February, Amnesty International had urged Israeli lawmakers to reject the legislation, citing its “discriminatory application against Palestinians.” On Sunday, Britain, France, Germany and Italy expressed “deep concern” over the bill, which they said risked “undermining Israel’s commitments with regards to democratic principles.” While the death penalty exists for a small number of crimes in Israel, it has become a de facto abolitionist country — the Nazi Holocaust perpetrator Adolf Eichmann was the last person to be executed in 1962. Israel has occupied the West Bank since 1967 and violence there has soared since Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel triggered the Gaza war. (read more by clicking the image above).