Elections

Georgia is once again embroiled in turmoil, its central Rustaveli Avenue literally alight with protests sparked by a wave of political and geopolitical tensions. Following controversial parliamentary elections held 26 October, tensions have escalated, with many citizens accusing the government of pivoting away from the European Union in favour of closer ties with Russia. They demand a new vote.

The first round of presidential elections in Romania that took place on the 24th of November had a shocking result: an independent ultranationalist candidate – Calin Georgescu – with a campaign solely on TikTok and YouTube won the majority of votes. The independent candidate had no party backing him and none of the pre-election polls picked up on his popularity, raising questions of potential electoral manipulation via social media.

Time is up for the Georgian Dream and its leader Bidzina Ivanishvili. Many in Georgia accused the Georgian Dream of rigging the elections of 28 October, and in recent weeks there have been protests in Georgia calling for new fair elections and an investigation into what actually happened around the election period and the election process. The beating up of peaceful demonstrators in the streets of Tbilisi in recent days is an embarrassment to every decent Georgian Dream supporter. That was bad enough, but what finally broke the government's support was the decision by the Georgian Dream two days ago to end its negotiations with the European Union with a view to Georgia's joining the EU or rather postpone the negotiations with four years. This created a completely different situation. Because, first of all, EU membership and EU perspective is embedded in the Georgian constitution, so Georgian Dream has no power to actually renounce or delay this mandate. Secondly, for many people it brought up the whole question of future relations with the EU and the West, and in truth no one in Georgia wants to break relations and the decision of the Georgian Dream leaves it isolated and unable to claim the support of the whole society.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met in Berlin today to discuss their vision for the future of Europe in light of the recent US presidential election, which Donald Trump claimed victory in. The meeting underlined their commitment to steer Europe towards greater unity, resilience and sovereignty amid evolving global dynamics.

Georgia is one of the former Soviet republics that, in theory, could have made a smooth transition to a European-style democratic model. Instead, it plunged into civil war in the early 1990s and enduring political divisions that persist to this day.

As the US presidential election approaches, many are assessing the implications of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris administration in different parts of the world. Commentators on the South Caucasus are no exception. The Biden administration established a Washington format to facilitate Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations and took steps to further US–Armenia relations, making a decision to upgrade the status of a strategic dialogue launched in 2019 to a strategic partnership commission. The Biden administration also invested efforts in thawing relations between Armenia and Turkey, viewing this as essential for regional stability. US officials view normalising Armenia–Turkey relations as crucial for reducing Russian influence and decreasing Armenia’s dependency on Russia.

The US Helsinki Commission on Tuesday (1 October) published an analysis of Russia's political and economic agenda. The document addresses, among other things, various developments in the South Caucasus. The region is experiencing various political shifts as Russia's material influence wanes due to its focus on its war with Ukraine. On the one hand. Armenia was once one of Russia's strongest allies. However, following the Nagorno Karabakh war in 2020, Armenia has moved away from Moscow and more towards a Western agenda. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has adopted a cooperative approach with Russia, especially given the similarities between the two countries' strong governmental grip.