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Conflict and Peace

Stories related to violent conflicts, diplomatic tensions, and conflict prevention, mediation and resolution.

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Monday Commentary
Monday Commentary: Sudan, a failed state that requires help

Monday Commentary: Sudan, a failed state that requires help

In todays’ crowded field in international relations, Sudan hardly is ever in centre stage. These days news, in the mainstream western media at least, is where Donald Trump decides to focus. But the events of the last days in Sudan were too grotesque to ignore. The rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF), finally won complete control over the Southern region of Darfur, overrunning the last base of the Khartoum government army (SAF), in EL Fasher. In the process, the RSF forces went on a spree of violence, killing at random civilians, and conducting a massacre in a hospital. The world twinged. Western governments issued condemnations, and the mainstream western media, with the exception of the BBC which has kept an interest in the country throughout, reached out for its atlases to find out where Al Fasher was. Sudan is the third largest country in Africa, occupying, an area of 1,886,068 square kms (728,215 square miles ) and with a population of around fifty million. A key role can be played by four countries that form the so-called "Quad initiative" — the US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia  and the UAE. They include the states that could exert real influence in Sudan. The initiative's objective was a roadmap to end the war or, at the very least, a humanitarian truce. However last week (26 October), Quad talks  in Washington failed. At the moment Sudan’s only hope is that international pressure can convince countries like UAE and Egypt to back an immediate ceasefire, and return Sudan to international humanitarian law. Sudan is already a failed state. But its people are resourceful, and given the right conditions they can rebuild their country. The world must help them to do so.
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News
Sudan’s paramilitary forces killed hundreds in Darfur hospital, according to the UN

Sudan’s paramilitary forces killed hundreds in Darfur hospital, according to the UN

Sudan’s paramilitary forces killed hundreds of people at a hospital, including patients, after they seized the provincial capital of North Darfur over the weekend, according to the U.N., displaced residents and aid workers, who described harrowing details of the atrocities. The 460 patients and their companions were reportedly killed Tuesday 28 October at Saudi Hospital by fighters from the Rapid Support Forces in the city of el-Fasher, said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organisation. 

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Analysis
Analysis: Landmine contamination in Azerbaijan’s Aghdam region prevents tens of thousands of displaced persons from returning to their homes

Analysis: Landmine contamination in Azerbaijan’s Aghdam region prevents tens of thousands of displaced persons from returning to their homes

The dust of war from the decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has started to settle, and although peace remains elusive, there is hope across the region for a better future. No-one has waited for this moment more than the hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis who were displaced by the First Karabakh War in the early 1990s.
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News
Drones fly above Kyiv and Moscow, Russia attacks three times in 24 hours

Drones fly above Kyiv and Moscow, Russia attacks three times in 24 hours

Russia has launched three mass aerial assaults on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv in 24 hours, with the latest coming in the early hours of Tuesday (30 May).  It was the 17th such attack just this month, with the Kyiv City Military Administration reporting that Iranian-made Shahed drones approached the city from different directions, and in several waves. According to Ukrainian authorities, the country's Air Defense shot down 29 out of 31 drones mostly fired at Kyiv. There are reports of one woman being killed and three others being injured after debris from a destroyed drone fell on a tower block, causing a fire. Drones shot down over other parts of Kyiv did not cause any other casualties, Kyiv City Military Administration reported. Between midnight and 5am yesterday, on Monday (29 May), Ukrainian Air Defenses had also fought off yet another aerial attack from Russia, shooting down 37 out of 40 cruise missiles, and 29 out of 35 Shahed drones. No casualties were reported on that occasion, although a second attack that came late morning yesterday reportedly injured one. Meanwhile, also on Tuesday morning, Muscovites awoke to the sound of explosions as alleged Ukrainian drones were shot down over Moscow. Although Russia's state-run RIA Novosti reports that eight drones were shot down over Moscow, reports on social media suggest that as many as two dozen drones flew over Moscow. Russian authorities have reported that falling debris damaged a tower block, injuring two people, although they were not hospitalised. Ukraine has not commented on the claims.
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News
Moscow and Minsk to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus, use remains “extraordinarily unlikely”

Moscow and Minsk to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus, use remains “extraordinarily unlikely”

Yesterday on Thursday (25 May), the Russian and Belarusian defence ministers Sergei Shoigu and Viktor Khrenin signed documents on placing Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus. According to the Russian state-controlled news agency Interfax, Shoigu said at the meeting that decisions over the control and use of the nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus would remain under the control of Russia.  Shoigu added that Russia may take "additional measures" in the future "to ensure the security of the Union State [of Russia and Belarus] and respond to the military-political situation". Russian President Vladimir Putin, and especially TV propagandists, have consistently threatened the West with nuclear weapons as Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine launched on 24 February last year has foundered. On 25 March this year, President Putin threatened to place tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus "for training", although Belarus has worked towards this development for some time.In their daily assessment of the Russian offensive campaign against Ukraine, the Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that the chance of Russia using the nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere is "extraordinarily unlikely".
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Analysis
Briefing: Pashinyan ready to sign, not everyone in Stepanakert is happy, Baku hopeful but keeping up pressure

Briefing: Pashinyan ready to sign, not everyone in Stepanakert is happy, Baku hopeful but keeping up pressure

As Armenia and Azerbaijan edge closer to signing an agreement ending decades of conflict between them, the future of the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh remains one of the most crucial outstanding issues, writes commonspace.eu. Intense discussions and negotiations have been ongoing throughout May, with meetings in Washington, Brussels and Moscow involving the leaders of the two countries, their foreign ministers, and other senior officials. In a lengthy press conference on 22 May, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that he wants to reach an agreement "as soon as possible". The international community's perception of the negotiations is that Armenia and Azerbaijan should, without reservations, recognise each other's territorial integrity of 29,800 square kilometers and 86,600 square kilometers, respectively, said Pashinyan.
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Opinion
Opinion: Pushing Armenia to make further concessions will spoil any chance for peace

Opinion: Pushing Armenia to make further concessions will spoil any chance for peace

"The Armenian government and Armenian society have reached the limits of concessions on Nagorno Karabakh, and any agreement which will not explicitly secure a long-term and solid international presence in Nagorno Karabakh (either through the deployment of peacekeeping forces or a large-size mission) will be rejected by the majority of the population", writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. He adds that "it should be clear to the international community that any new government in Armenia will pursue a tougher policy on the issues related to Nagorno Karabakh and relations with Azerbaijan. Thus, all those external actors, who are interested in the stability of the region, should understand that any additional pressure on the Armenian government to drop its demands for a solid international presence in Nagorno Karabakh, and failure to explicitly secure that presence in the peace agreement, is a recipe for significant political destabilization in Armenia, and has the potential of ruining the ongoing Armenia – Azerbaijan negotiation process, and bring the region back to a renewed cycle of violence."
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News
US announces $375m military aid for Ukraine at G7 in Japan

US announces $375m military aid for Ukraine at G7 in Japan

The US Department of Defense has announced another package of military aid to Ukraine, this time totalling $375m. It is the 38th round of equipment sent to Ukraine by the US since August 2021. The statement released by the US Department of Defense on Sunday (21 May) following President Joe Biden's meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the G7 meeting in Japan details the capabilities included in the latest package. It will include further ammunition with HIMARS rocket systems that have wrought havoc on Russian troop and equipment concentrations since they were first supplied to Ukraine in June 2022. It will also supply Javelin anti-tank missiles and AT-4 anti-armour systems, as well as armoured bridging systems, logistics support, and thermal imagery systems. This latest package comes after Joe Biden signaled that he would authorise the third-party transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, something that Ukraine has pressured allies over for months. He would also support an international intiative to train Ukrainian pilots on the jets, he added while at the G7 summit in Japan.