The war in the Middle East goes on. Most countries, governments and people think it was unnecessary and unjustified. The person who started it, and who has the power to stop it quickly, Donald Trump, has as much as admitted he had not thought the whole thing through properly. This war has already deformed the Middle East in ways we are just starting to understand. Its negative impact on the world, even if it stops tomorrow are going to be deep and long lasting. Some will despair. But governments, international organisations, and more broadly civil society, do not have this luxury. It is time to rethink, regroup, and develop a future strategy. For that it is necessary to look at the big picture. This is far from easy while the senseless war continues but it is necessary, and all those who can, in their different ways, need to contribute. On 19 March the EU had a summit of the leaders of the 27 member states in Brussels. It was a serious, somber affair, overshadowed by the war in the Middle East, and the political and economic fallout from it. Big decisions were taken. The European leaders also met with the UN Secretary General, Antonio Gutteres. Both the EU and the UN are large organisations, that often look dysfunctional. But for the future if the world, post the Trump war in the Middle East, both are vital  The commitment of both to multilateralism at this precise moment, when the concept appears broken, is welcome. The world must recognize that the present crisis, is the biggest challenge since WWII. The solutions must be equal to the challenge. They must also be bold and ambitious. The EU working with the UN is one of the few, maybe only, actor that can make a difference. But this will require political will and determination. The Brussels EU meeting on 19 March gave a hint of that. But we are not there yet. ---- Monday Commentary will take a two-week Easter break, and will next be published on 13 April 2026. In the meantime however, commonspace.eu will continue to be updated daily. (Click the picture above to read the full Monday Commentary).

Ilia II, Catholicos Patriarch of All Georgia died on Tuesday (17 March) at the age of 93. He had been leader of the Orthodox Church in Georgia since 1977. Dennis Sammut wrote this obituary for commonspace.eu: I met Patriarch Ilia for the first time in March 1992, on my first visit to Georgia. I was accompanied to the Patriarchate by Zurab Zhvania and Ghia Baramidze. When we entered the Patriarch’s office, Zurab Zhvania shook his hand, Ghia Baramizde kissed it. The Patriarch was in a short-sleeved shirt, and throughout our conversation, he woke up from his chair several times to answer phone calls. It was a very relaxed meeting in a very difficult moment in Georgia’s history. Georgia, recently independent after the collapse of the USSR, was in complete chaos. Edward Shevardndze had come back from Moscow a few days before to head the State Council, but there was little sign of government. When I next met Ilia II a few years later, it was a different meeting. He was sitting on his throne in full robes. The conversation was more formal. Ilia II had made the transition to become the leader we are more familiar with. Between them Shevardnadze and Ilia II saved Georgia in that difficult period: Shevardnadze was instrumental on the margins, ensuring the loyalty of the large and restless Armenian and Azerbaijani minorities, and the now disempowered but still influential nomenklatura. But it was Ilia II who controlled the hearts of the Georgian heartland, and he understood what needed to be done as Georgia continued to implode, often as in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, with Russian instigation and support. Ilia II was born in Vladikafkaz, modern day North Ossetia, to a Georgian Orthodox family, he studied at the Moscow Theological from 1956 to 1960. Ilia served as Bishop of Simokhedi from 1963 to 1967 and as bishop of Sukhumi and Abkhazia from 1967 to 1977. He also led the church's external relations department from 1964 to 1977. He was elected Catholicos-Patriarch of All Georgia in 1977. During his tenure, Ilia II led the growth and restoration of the Church in Georgia. During the Shevardnadze years, until 2003, Ilia II was able to position the Church as an important player in the Georgian state and society. This relationship became more complicated in the Saakashvili era that followed from 2003-2012. Under the Ivanishvili since, the Church has remained important, bot boxed in. It is riddled by internal divisions and accusations of corruption. For more than a decade Ilia II has been frail, and many say that he lost control. But his personality and presence ensured at least nominal unity of the church, and no one dared to question his word too loudly. His death creates a vacuum. There is a danger that the church will divide, or that a faction will take hold of it. This will have implications for the country. Georgia already has a very polorised political scene. The Patriarch was the last symbol of unity. The next days and weeks will be testing for the Georgian Orthodox Church and Georgian society. The death of Ilia II is not only the end of an era in Georgia. It marks a break with a past that no longer exists. But for many Georgians, a new present has not yet started. Source: This obituary was prepared for commonspace.eu by Dennis Sammut

The war of the United States and Israel against Iran has entered its third week. Not a very long time some would say, but enough already to have changed the Middle East, not in any good way. As the BBC veteran Security Correspondent, Frank Gardner, put it, the war has put a shadow over the whole region. Nobody, except for Benyamin Netanyahu, wanted this war, not even Donald Trump. The war, unless it is stopped quickly may end up harming everybody. The way out is clear: De-escalate, negotiate, and re-build, even if as of today, the prospect for that appear distant. The only way out of the present crises is first through de-escalation. A cease fire may not be possible for weeks, but using diplomatic back channels the US and Iran may agree to de-escalate,  or to put it more crudely, stop shooting. It will be up to Trump to ensure that Netanyahu stops shooting too. Once de-escalation happens, the difficult process of negotiations can start again, focusing on the nuclear file and picking up from where discussions were left on 27 February. This is an agreement within reach – a non nuclear Iran in  return for the lifting of sanctions. Other possibilities are possible, and once a cease fire is agreed the EU and China can also be involved in the discussions. Finally, a process of rebuilding must start. The GCC have the money to do reconstruction of infrastructure quickly. Reputational damage to their Shangri-la image will take longer. Rebuilding Iran will be more challenging, given the scale of the destruction, and will require more money than Tehran has. Even as the bombs continue to fall, this issue needs to be considered. In the end no one really wanted this war, and no-one is going to benefit from it. It must be brought to an end as soon as possible, but the thinking of what happens after must start now.

The crises unleashed by the US-Israeli attack on Iran on 28 February is now in the second week. The Islamic Republic of Iran is taking a battering, but shows no sign of collapse. It has a chosen a new Supreme Leader – the son of the one killed  at the start of the US/Israeli attack, and is preparing for a long fight. There are ninety million Iranians, most of who are likely to rally around the flag, and defend their country. The crises has implications, for the whole region and the whole world, and we are just at the start. Ukraine has been pushed off the front pages. It is very easy for it now to be pushed off the agenda of European leaders. It must not. Regardless of the enormity of what is going  on in the Middle East, Europe – and that means the EU and other countries such as the UK, Norway and Switzerland – must remain focused on Ukraine, and in supporting the Ukrainian people in the face of Putin’s aggression. For Europe, Ukraine is an existential issue. The crises in the Middle East only makes the challenge that it presents more complicated, not less serious. Europe has already done a lot, but its efforts are yet not complete. It has provided generous financial support. Its embrace of Ukraine is not complete enough. Top of the agenda is Ukraine’s EU membership. One can always find reasons to delay this process. Many will be valid reasons. But there is one overarching reason why this must happen soon. It will seal Europe’s commitment to Ukraine, and it will fulfill Ukraine’s desire for a European future. Yes, it is a political reason, but Ukraine is first and foremost a political challenge, one that Europe must win. The crises in the Middle East is not a distraction. It is real enough, and will also have huge implications for Europe. But Europe has less tools at its disposal. It does not have the military means to be involved independently. The relationship with the GCC countries is not strong enough. Its influence on Iran is at best modest. Its relationship with both the US and Israel is ambivalent, and evolving. But Europe cannot remain a bystander. What will happen in the Middle East will have consequences – be it in politics, security, energy or economics. Europe must up its diplomatic game in the Middle East. This effort must cut through the established bureaucracies. It must find away of pooling the resources, and knowledge, of the EU member states, EU institutions and non- EU European countries such as the UK. It must find a way of working with key partners like Turkey. This effort must be fast and flexible, and can start with the appointment of a heavyweight at the head of this effort – someone who can talk easily with Merz, Macron, Stammer, Erdogan, von der Leyen and other European leaders. Diplomacy is the only way out of the present Middle East crises. Europe cannot afford to be sidelined in this. It must lead. With Ukraine and the Middle East in turmoil, European resources, and ingenuity, will be stretched to the limit. But Europe does not have a choice. It must engage with both. Differently, but with an equal sense of urgency and purpose.