For the first time in 31 years of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the situation feels more unpredictable than ever. In the past, there was a grim certainty that another war would erupt just as it did in September 2020 while peace, on the other hand, always seemed distant. In recent weeks, comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that it was almost a done deal simply solicited disagreement among analysts and political commentators.  As if that wasn’t confusion enough, and although both Baku and Yerevan have said that the 10 July meeting between the leaders in Abu Dhabi was constructive, another issue has emerged unexpectedly to distract and deflect attention.

More than 1,100 people, most of them Druze fighters, civilians and government security personnel, have been killed in clashes erupted on July 13 in Syria's Druze-majority province of Sweida, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor. Clashes between local fighters and Sunni Bedouin, spiralled and drew in Syrian government forces, tribal allies of the Bedouin and the military of neighbouring Israel. According to the United Nations, the violence has displaced more than 128,000 people, an issue that has also made collecting and identifying bodies more difficult.

Last month, TIME magazine ran a cover story entitled “A New Middle East Is Unfolding before our eyes”. “The middle of what? East of where?”, asks Tim Marshall in his seminal book ‘Prisoners of Geography’, before quickly reminding us that “The Middle East is one of those places where the past is now”.

European Council President, Antonio Costa, Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, and EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Kaya Kallas, will travel to Beijing next week to participate in the EU-China summit on Thursday (24 July). The summit has already been cut from two days to one, reflecting an increasing realisation on both sides that the chance of making progress on many issues in the bilateral agenda is small. The summit on 24 July, coincides with the 50th anniversary of relations between China and the EU, and no doubt China will want to throw a party. Chinese President, Xi Jinping, and prime minister, Li Qiange, are expected to participate in the summit. But the feeling in Brussels is that in the fifty years China had failed to create a level playing field. Whilst Chinese companies, academics and individuals had a free hand in the open European system across the continent, European companies struggled to exist , let alone compete, in China. In a key speech in 2023, van der Leyen spoke about the need of the EU to “de risk” its ties with China. But the issue that has really marred relations is Ukraine. China has failed to understand the significance of the situation in Ukraine for Europe. Chinese support for the Russian position diplomatically, as well as more tangibly, has cast a serious cloud over relations. This was seen clearly a few days ago in a four hour meeting in Brussels, between Kallas and Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, described as being “respectful, but tense”.

This week, a team of Japanese professionals conducted a landmine detection training programme for Ukrainian demining teams using equipment supplied by Japan. This initiative is intended to support Ukraine's ongoing efforts to clear explosive remnants of war in the context of Russia's ongoing invasion.

Today (18 July), Tajikistan and the United Arab Emirates signed an intergovernmental agreement on air transport cooperation, marking a significant development in strengthening ties between Central Asia and the Gulf region.

On Thursday (17 July), Pakistan, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan signed a framework agreement in Kabul to conduct a joint feasibility study for the Naibabad–Kharlachi segment of the Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan (UAP) railway corridor.