Elections

As part of our "Armenia Season" on commonspace.eu, journalist Alex Vergé , writing from Yerevan, reflects on the forthcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia. He says that "the attention around the elections, in particular from foreign powers, highlights the geopolitical stakes. Russia wishes to discredit the current administration as a means to safeguard its position as Armenia’s preponderant partner. The EU, in turn, will be looking to avoid a repeat of developments in Georgia since 2024, where democratic backsliding has led to a significant deterioration of relations and effectively halted the country’s accession process." He adds, that " the outcome of the vote remains very uncertain at this stage". A public opinion survey commissioned by the International Republican Institute in early February 2026 indicated that 24% of respondents said they would vote for Pashinyan and Civil Contract if an election were held the following week, with the next highest level of support expressed at around 9% for Karapetyan and the Strong Armenia Alliance, and 30% of respondents stating they were undecided. It appears that momentum may be gathering behind Pashinyan, who has been on the campaign trail for several weeks already. Polling by the local news outlet EVNReport in February-March indicated that the prime minister’s approval ratings stood at 47%, up from 36% based on a first wave of polling in January-February. Others remain more measured in their assessments. Eric Hacopian, the leading political commentator at the independent local news outlet CIVILNET, says that while it is clear that the administration has the largest minority support, it is equally clear that they do not have more than half of voters’ support. While this raises the possibility of the need for coalition partners to secure a parliamentary majority, Hacopian suggests that the confrontational campaigning approach of the ruling party will likely have alienated potential partners. In any case, the elections are set to mark a major democratic moment in Armenia’s history. Michael Zoyan, the historian and former MP, pushing back on arguments that the Pashinyan administration is overseeing democratic backsliding, stressed that Armenia was still a “young democracy.” Like many other democratic countries, he added, it faces the challenge of balancing between upholding democratic freedoms and the need to address challenges to democratic governance. (Click image to read the full commentary).