Connectivity

This year marks the 30th anniversary of the 1994 ceasefire agreement that put fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces over the Soviet-era mainly ethnic Armenian Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) on hold – or at least until it escalated into war in 2016 and more devastatingly in 2020. Despite the involvement of international mediators, peace remained elusive despite occasional claims to the contrary. The sides were said to have gotten close, but never enough to prevent tens of thousands dying in over three decades of conflict.

Denmark's Maersk and German rival Hapag-Lloyd said their container ships would continue to avoid the Red Sea route that gives access to the Suez Canal following a weekend attack on one of Maersk's vessels. Both shipping giants have been rerouting some sailings via Africa's southern Cape of Good Hope as Yemen-based Houthi militants attack cargo vessels in the Red Sea. The disruption threatens to drive up delivery costs for goods, raising fears it could trigger a fresh bout of global inflation. Maersk had on Sunday paused all Red Sea sailings for 48 hours following attempts by Houthi militants to board the Maersk Hangzhou. U.S. military helicopters repelled the assault and killed 10 of the attackers. "An investigation into the incident is ongoing, and we will continue to pause all cargo movement through the area while we further assess the constantly evolving situation," Maersk said in a statement. "In cases where it makes most sense for our customers, vessels will be rerouted and continue their journey around the Cape of Good Hope." Maersk had more than 30 container vessels set to sail through Suez via the Red Sea, an advisory on Monday showed, while 17 other voyages were put on hold. Hapag-Lloyd said its vessels would continue to divert away from the Red Sea — sailing instead via Africa's southern tip — until at least January 9, when it will decide whether to continue rerouting its ships. The Suez Canal is used by roughly one-third of global container ship cargo. Redirecting ships around the southern tip of Africa is expected to cost up to $1 million extra in fuel for every round trip between Asia and northern Europe.

The United States has announced the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian, an important new multinational security initiative under the umbrella of the Combined Maritime Forces and the leadership of its Task Force 153, which focuses on security in the Red Sea. A Pentagon statement said that "Operation Prosperity Guardian is bringing together multiple countries to include the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, to jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries and bolstering regional security and prosperity.” The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza has spilled over into the Red Sea as Houthi rebels in Yemen, who control parts of the country including its capital and some of its Red Sea coastline, intensify their attacks on shipping passing through the Red Sea. BP on Monday, became the latest of a number of global companies that announced the suspension of use of the vital Red Sea route which connects the Gulf region and the Indian Ocean to Europe through the Suez Canal. The United States has condemned the attacks and promised decisive action to deal with them.  The Pentagon announced on Monday the formation of a new international mission focused on countering attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently presented the "Crossroads of Peace" initiative at the Tbilisi Silk Road Forum held at the end of October. "Pashinyan's map depicts rehabilitated existing roads and logistical connections, adding new pathways. His message was clear: envisioning a post-conflict era for Azerbaijan and Armenia, and at the same time reaching out to Turkey. The map symbolized the potential regional landscape after the conflict, and was aimed at both the Armenian public and external actors", writes Ramazan Samadov in this op-ed for commonspace.eu "The idea itself looks attractive, however for the plan to materialize into negotiations, Pashinyan would need to offer something more substantial to Azerbaijan and Turkey – something that they genuinely need", he adds. Central is the issue of the Zangezur corridor. "The revival of discussions between Azerbaijan and Armenia on the transit regime is crucial for both tactical and regional dynamics. Currently, the corridor between Georgia and Azerbaijan operates under monopolistic conditions.   Introducing an alternative becomes strategic, offering leverage in the negotiation process. In essence, Pashinyan's "Crossroads of Peace" map presents a compelling pitch. The Azerbaijani statement about finding an alternative to Zangezur through Iran underscores the corridor's significance. Even statements of waning interest in the Zangezur corridor do not diminish its importance. If Armenia proposes a meaningful transit arrangement for Azerbaijani transits through its territory, Azerbaijan's interest in the corridor is likely to reignite", Samadov says.

All transport and communication lines in the South Caucasus remain closed. This failure can largely be attributed to the shift of connectivity from a concept intended to build trust to one tied up with security arrangements in the post-2020 era. "Instead of fostering closeness between the parties, concepts that were supposed to enhance cooperation were perceived as threats to territorial integrity and sovereignty", writes Shujaat Ahmadzada in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. "One should not overlook the fact that the November 10 statement and many of its components have been fundamentally and operationally Russia-centric, implying that the Armenian-Azerbaijani disagreements have to be settled around a third party – albeit not an ordinary one but one with hegemonic ambitions."

Over the last few weeks, the president of Azerbaijan, and the prime ministers of Armenia and Georgia, have made separate calls for regional co-operation among the three South Caucasus countries, highlighting the benefits that can come out from such co-operation. This is a big shift in positions, especially for Azerbaijan. There is no doubt that regional co-operation can bring great benefits to the three countries and the wider region. The three leaders need to get together and ideally sign some kind of joint declaration outlining their regional vision. Work on this should start at senior diplomat level as soon as possible. There is an alternative vision to the trilateral regional co-operation, and this is the idea of adding to the core three South Caucasus countries, the three regional neighbours: Russia, Iran and Turkey. Meetings in this format, with the Georgians absent, have taken place in Moscow and Tehran. Those pushing for this format, whether consciously or unconsciously, are trying to destroy the idea of South Caucasus regional co-operation between the three core countries. Most things that can be done between the three (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia), cannot be done between the six. The 3 + 3 – useful only once the Georgians join, can be a talking shop. No doubt someone will come up after with the idea of the 3 + 2 – providing a forum between the three South Caucasus countries and the EU and US that can be yet another talking shop. But realistically, neither can form the basis of regional co-operation. It is clear that in the South Caucasus three is a company but six is a crowd.

It was overshadowed by more dramatic events in the world, yet despite this, the 19th  EU-Central Asia Ministerial meeting held in Luxembourg on 23 October was a significant event, and another step in the process of building closer co-operation between Europe and the countries of Central Asia. A statement from Brussels said that “for the EU, the Ministerial meeting was an opportunity to highlight its strong commitment to the region and stress the importance of deeper cooperation in the context of the challenges emerging from regional dynamics, with a focus on the fall-out of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the situation in Afghanistan.” A joint communique issued after the meeting covered a wide range of issues, and indicated the expanding agenda in the relations between the two group of countries. commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that the documents coming out of the Luxembourg Meeting of EU and Central Asia foreign ministers on 23 October are significant – they are not only declaratory as sometimes such statements are, but also offer a large number of tangible frameworks, proposals and action points that should keep officials on both sides busy for a while. The two sides have set an ambitious agenda for their future co-operation, but implementing this agenda is going to require political commitment. That will ensure its success up to a point. More will depend on public engagement on both sides, and securing that may be even more challenging.

The two-day Tbilisi Silk Road Forum “Connecting Today, Resilient Tomorrow” opened on October 26 with a speech by Georgian Prime Minister, Irakli Garibashvili. Over 2000 delegates from 63 countries, including the Prime Ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Montenegro, are attending the event. In his address to the fourth edition of the Forum, Garibashvili said the Georgian Dream Government had built and maintained an “unprecedented and uninterrupted” decade of “peace and stability” since 2012, and had brought “confidence and predictability to our nation and our partners”. One of the major goals of my Government is to avoid war and secure peace. Despite issues posed by our geographic location, regional and global security challenges, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and alarming tensions in the Middle East, through prudent policies and close coordination with our partners, we have managed to keep our people and country safe while contributing as a responsible member of the international community”, he told the audience. Garibashvili reminded the Forum participants about a "full-scale military aggression" that Georgia experienced in 2008 and "continues to endure its consequences". This is still evident in the occupation of 20 percent of the Georgian territory by the Russian Federation and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people from their homes. I confidently state that despite the devastation that we have suffered, we have not hesitated to pursue our ambitions. We have been gradually transforming Georgia into a dynamic society fully committed to peace, stability and economic development", he said. The PM also reviewed his Government’s Peaceful Neighbourhood Initiative for the region by saying “we are prepared to engage our neighbours and friendly nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan to finally bring lasting peace to the South Caucasus”.  Today, I am delighted to host both of my dear colleagues - [Armenian] Prime Minister Pashinyan and [Azerbaijani] Prime Minister Asadov”, he continued in the opening address. The Georgian official also stressed “permanent peace” would “benefit all of our countries” as well as the wider region, and bring “deserved prosperity to our nations”.