Conflict and Peace

Monday was a day of high diplomacy as leaders scrambled to try to avoid war in Europe.  Nonetheless western countries continue to assess that the prospect of a Russian invasion of Ukraine remains real, and could happen at any moment. The Pentagon said on Monday (7 February) that Russia continued its military buildup on the border with Ukraine over the weekend.

"The EU’s reconsideration of its policies towards Armenia and Azerbaijan and its pursuit of a more balanced approach is likely to buttress the EU’s place in the post-war peace process and help it to play a more impactful mediating role", writes Vasif Husseynov in this op-ed. "If successful, this promises to have larger regional, and possibly geopolitical implications, for the South Caucasus, since the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations have so far been pursued mainly through the sole mediation of Russia".

A statement posted on the website of the European Council said that "President Michel and President Macron reaffirmed their full commitment to supporting efforts aimed at reducing tension and building trust in the region."

Johnny Melikian and Ramazan Samadov are members of a Joint Liaison Group of Armenian and Azerbaijani experts preparing a report on how confidence building measures can support lasting peace in the South Caucasus. In this joint paper they discuss the important role of connectivity, which they say is a key factor in building the region's future.

The foreign ministers of Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Chad failed to agree on the terms for a joint ministerial summit with the European Union and have instead chosen to hold bilateral talks with EU High Representative Josep Borrel. The cancellation followed a series of coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, which has put into question the main European military tool in the Sahel region, the Takuba force. Task Force Takuba was created with much fanfare, and after a lot of French insistence, in March 2020 to help Mali and its neighbours in the West African Sahel fight militants linked to the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, who have taken over large parts of their territory. 

"For the countries in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus, the current crisis between the West and Russia over Ukraine along with the US-Russian dialogue on European security issues are of existential importance in terms of their independent statehood and sovereignty", writes Vasif Huseynov in this op-ed. Almost all the former Soviet states in the region are under the risk of facing similar threats that now jeopardize Ukraine’s national security.

President Roch Kaboré has been arrested and is being held by soldiers who initiated a coup d'état in Burkina Faso. Media reports say that the military, frustrated by the inability of the government to address the attacks by radical Islamic militants, initiated the coup. The soldiers say president Kaboré is not supporting the army sufficiently thus the need for a military regime. Sources close to the military say the president is being held in a safe place. 

The US, NATO, the EU and their members and partners believe Russia is about to intervene militarily in Ukraine. The message from US Secretary of State Blinken to Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, at their talks in Geneva on Friday was clear and simple, "Don't do it, because the consequences will be swift and severe".

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Kiev for talks with the Ukrainian leadership as fears increase of an imminent Russian invasion. In Brussels, European Union officials are bracing themselves for the biggest crisis on the European continent since the war in Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. There are still some hopes that Russia will de-escalate the situation, but most observers think this is now unlikely and that some sort of aggression - even if not an all-out invasion - is imminent.