Conflict and Peace

Armenia is one of the countries that have had to make difficult decisions whilst positioning itself in the current stand-off between Russia and Ukraine. Despite the fact that it has little room for manoeuvre, and is very dependent on Russia in many spheres, Armenia has taken a pragmatic but principled position, writes Bojan Stojkovski in this op-ed for commonspace.eu

“EU soft power will still be a factor, but I think the EU now recognises that this works more with like-minded countries that aspire to join the EU... The notion that soft power works on countries with different political systems – I think that has been, if you like, the victim of the Ukrainian crisis” says Prof Jamie Shea in this episode of our Global Europe Unpacked podcast.

United Nations (UN) Secretary General Antonio Guterres told reporters at the UN Headquarters, that the conflict in Ukraine can turn into a nuclear one. "The possibility of nuclear conflict, which was once unthinkable, is now possible again," he said. Noting that Russia's raising the nuclear alert level is a "creepy" development, Guterres said, "The possibility of nuclear conflict, which was once unthinkable, is now possible again. "Ukraine is on fire. The country is being destroyed before the eyes of the world."  Saying that the impact of Russia's war against Ukraine on civilians has reached "terrible dimensions", Guterres told the assembled journalists, "Whatever the outcome, there will be no winners in this war, only losers."

Pope Francis, the leader of the Roman Catholic Church, has made an passionate appeal for an end to the war in Ukraine. At the conclusion of the Sunday Angelus, Pope Francis recalled that the city that bears the name of the Virgin Mary, Mariupol, has become a city of martyrs in the terrible war ravaging Ukraine. He expressed horror over the barbarity of the killing of children, innocents and unarmed civilians, and called for an end to the unacceptable armed aggression, before it reduces cities to cemeteries. "With pain in my heart I join my voice to that of the common people, who implore an end to the war. In the name of God, let the cries of those who suffer be heard and let the bombings and attacks cease! Let there be a real and decisive focus on negotiation, and let the humanitarian corridors be effective and safe. In the name of God, I ask you: stop this massacre!"

Dennis Sammut, Director of LINKS Europe and Managing Editor of Commonspace.eu discusses how the countries of the South Caucasus have reacted to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and what they should do next. “In the present circumstances, the strongest card that the three countries have, if they choose to play it, is regional co-operation and an informal loosely co-ordinated common approach”, he says. All the Russian strategy in the South Caucasus in the last thirty years has been built  on the premise of adversity and unhealthy competition between and within the three countries. Debunking this will be a major victory for all the countries and people in the region.

The war in Ukraine is likely to continue for some time, and after that it will be an uneasy peace that will follow. For Ukrainians this is an existential battle - whether they want their country to continue to live. For the Kremlin it is existential too. A humiliating defeat in Ukraine will seriously undermine the legitimacy of the regime. There are therefore likely to be many battles ahead, many heroic Ukrainian cities to add to the catalogue of history. But for sure Mariupol's name will forever be associated with the heroism of its people, with the war crimes committed by the Kremlin in Ukraine, and with the futility and irrationality of war.