Türkiye and the Levant

According to the news channel Al Jazeera and the Palestinian news agency Wafa, at least ten Palestinians who were desperately seeking aid from a controversial and heavily criticised United States–backed organisation have been killed by Israeli forces in Gaza over the last 48 hours, according to the besieged enclave’s Government Media Office.

The Nato Summit held in The Hague on 24-25 June was a failure, wrapped in success. It was a success because it avoided public display of divisions, mainly by avoiding issues: it was the shortest summit anyone can remember; it also had a very short final statement that basically had two points, the first a re-commitment to article 5 of the North Atlantic Charter and the principle that an attack on one will be considered an attack on all. The fact that Nato leaders in the Hague had felt the need to re-emphasise this should be a cause of worry not celebration, but in the end, it is good that it was said. The second outcome, the one that received most attention, was the commitment of European countries to spend more on their defence: 5 per cent of GDP, of which 3.5 per cent on hard defence, and 1.5 per cent on related ancillary areas such as infrastructure. You may, if you want, believe that this was a response to US President Donald Trump's insistence. Or, if you are more prudent, understand that countries that matter – Germany, France, Poland and the Scandinavian countries had decided on this course of action quite separately, and as a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which was a wake-up call. Finland and Sweden’s decision to abandon their neutrality, and join NATO was taken long before Trump returned to the White House. The EU’s decision to spend massively on defence was always to ensure that other European countries are part of this process, willy-nilly.

Hours after US President Donald Trump said his ceasefire had taken effect, Israel said it intercepted two Iranian missiles, with Defence Minister Israel Katz vowing that the military would "respond forcefully". Israel had stated on Tuesday it agreed to Trump's declaration of a ceasefire with Iran, adding that it had achieved all its objectives in the 12-day war with its arch-enemy. According to AFP, Iran denied launching missiles at Israel after the ceasefire announcement, and said it had "compelled" Israel to "unilaterally halt its aggression", while stopping short of officially accepting the ceasefire plan.

Pashinyan's official visit to Türkiye on June 20, 2025, marks a strategic shift from symbolic reconciliation to strategic rapprochement. Normalisation, for Yerevan, is not an end in itself but a transformative initiative to put an end to Armenia's geopolitical isolation, to diversify its transit routes, to decrease its reliance on Russia and to get access to Turkish ports, measures that reorient Armenia economically and logistically toward the West. Türkiye, on its part, is seizing the moment to strengthen its role as a regional intermediary. Consequently, by promoting normalisation, Ankara solidifies its impact in the South Caucasus and sends a positive signal to Western partners: the EU and U.S., in particular, about its evolving role in the region's stabilisation.

Armenian prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, made a well-prepared and carefully orchestrated visit to Türkiye on Friday evening (20 June), during which he held talks with the Turkish President, Recip Tayip Erdogan. Commonspace.eu political editor in a comment said that Pashinyan‘s visit to Türkiye was well prepared and carefully orchestrated by the two sides. Potentially the visit can be a game-changer in Armenia- Türkiye relations, leading to the restoration of full diplomatic relations and the opening of borders. In both Armenia and Türkiye there is increasing support for these steps.  No major breakthrough was announced after the visit, but none was expected. The day before Pashinyan’s visit, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev also met Erdogan in  Türkiye. Aliyev continues to push Türkiye not to take any steps with Armenia before Armenia and Azerbaijan settle the differences between them. But Türkiye may decide to make a move sooner than the Azerbaijan president wants.

Russian President Vladimir Putin offered Wednesday to help mediate an end to the conflict between Israel and Iran, suggesting Moscow could help negotiate a settlement that could allow Tehran to pursue a peaceful atomic program while assuaging Israeli security concerns, AP reported. Speaking to senior news leaders of international news agencies on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin noted that “it’s a delicate issue,” but added that “in my view, a solution could be found.” Meanwhile, Iran launched a fresh salvo of missiles at Israel on Thursday, with a hospital reported hit, as US President Donald Trump warned he was weighing US military action in the conflict.

The G7 summit, a gathering of major world leaders meeting at Kananaskis, in the Canadian Rockies, has concluded with a joint leaders statement urging a "de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza". It stopped short of calling for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The leaders' statement, published as US President Trump left Canada, said Israel had a right to defend itself, and that Iran was a source of terror that should not have a nuclear weapon. According to the BBC, its call for a resolution of the crisis that led to a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East amounted to a diplomatic compromise that preserved G7 unity but watered down the statement's impact.