Türkiye and the Levant

On Sunday December 8th the long-ruling Syrian president Bashar al-Assad fled the country, ultimately giving up power to the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The day marked the end of the 61 years long authoritarian regime, started by Bashar’s father, Hafez al-Assad. The regime scared the Syrian population with regular instances of torture, mysterious disappearances and unlawful killings in cases of resistance against the ruler. Since the 2011 ‘Arab Spring’ protests that resulted in the rise of repression and a civil war, Syria’s economic and political landscape was completely ruined. Even though the long-awaited Assad’s fall is a time of celebration for many around the world, it is only the beginning of a long, demanding journey to rebuild the country from scratch.

Since 7 October 2023, when Hamas killed 1,139 innocent civilians in Israel, the Israeli government has been conducting military operations in the Gaza Strip that have taken the lives of 43,552 Palestinians. As the death toll of Palestinians is increasing, the UN General Assembly has asked the International Court of Justice to give an advisory opinion on Israel’s military operations in Palestine. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague issued an advisory opinion on 19th July 2024, stating that Israel’s continued presence in the occupied Palestinian territory is illegal under International Law. The ICJ also argued that states must not assist via financial, military or political aid to the Israeli government in maintaining its unlawful occupation (para. 273-279). It is important to note that although advisory opinions are not binding on states, they carry great legal weight by clarifying the application of international law and having moral authority. 

On 18 October, the 3+3 regional cooperation platform which hypothetically includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia “plus” three surrounding powers (Türkiye, Iran, and Russia) convened the third meeting at the ministerial level, though again without the participation of Georgia. Hosted by Türkiye in Istanbul, the meeting took place amidst a sensitive security situation in the wider region due to the ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war, the potential Iran-Israel war, the upcoming fateful parliamentary elections in Georgia, and certainly, the persisting challenges in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.

The Israeli army has begun 'limited, localised and targeted attacks' on Hezbollah targets in the border area of southern Lebanon, the army announced in a statement overnight Monday to Tuesday. Soldiers on the ground will be supported by the Israeli Air Force.

The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah fired a rocket at the Israeli city of Tel Aviv on Wednesday morning (25 September) for the first time since the Gaza war broke out almost a year ago. It is also Hezbollah's deepest strike inside Israel. The militant movement's target was the headquarters of Mossad, Israel's secret service. The missile was intercepted by Israel.

In a telephone conversation with his Israeli counterpart Gallant, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin promised that an aircraft carrier already on its way to the Middle East would be speeded up. The US is also sending a nuclear submarine with guided missiles - the USS Georgia - to the region. The US aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt has been in the region for some time and will soon be joined by the USS Abraham Lincoln, which will carry advanced Joint Strike Fighter jets.

France is urging its citizens to leave Lebanon. An update on the French foreign ministry's website warns of "the risks of military escalation in the Middle East" and advises people to book another commercial flight to France "as soon as possible" while flights are still available. The ministry also reiterated its "urgent" advice against travelling to Lebanon.