Russia

Russian armed forces conducted a major nuclear drill on Wednesday (October 26), the first since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February. The last Russian nuclear drill took place five days before it invaded Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin monitored the drill from a control centre. The exercise, which Russia says is an "annual routine", worries western countries because Putin has hinted he may be ready to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine Russian Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu called the drill a simulation of a “mass nuclear strike with strategic attack forces in response to a nuclear attack by our adversary”. According to Shoigu, the army practised a 'massive nuclear strike' in preparation for a possible nuclear attack by an enemy. The exercise included firing long-range cruise missiles at practice targets. The missile-carrying K-114 Tula submarine and two Tu-95 long-range strategic nuclear bombers were also used, the Kremlin reported. The missiles were fired from the Kamchatka Peninsula, in the far east of Russia. Cruise missiles from a nuclear-powered submarine were fired in the Barents Sea, in the north of Russia.

In a move likely to create further animosity between Kyiv and Moscow, on Tuesday (18 October), the Ukrainian parliament, known as the Verkhovna Rada, recognised the independence of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, declaring it 'temporarily occupied by Russia'. The Rada also condemned the 'commission of genocide against the Chechen people'. The resolution reads: ‘We declare the recognition of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria as temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation as a result of armed aggression committed in violation of the UN Charter’. The Ukrainian parliament also called on UN member states and international organisations to carry out an independent and impartial investigation into purported crimes committed in Chechnya over the last three decades, to 'ensure that the guilty are brought to justice'. Out of 351 members present, 287 voted for, and 0 voted against or abstained. The remaining 64 did not vote. Chechens have been playing a prominent role in the fighting in Ukrainian, with groups supporting either the Ukrainian government or Moscow.

Russia is worried that the success of European diplomacy in approximating the positions of Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the prospect of a peace agreement before the end of the year, would see it elbowed out of the South Caucasus. Russia may use its presence in Karabakh to throw spokes in the wheel, writes Vasif Huseynov in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. "This situation seriously threatens peace and stability in the South Caucasus. The region would  descend into a catastrophic escalations if the present peace efforts fail, and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict becomes another theater of the Russia-West confrontation. Baku and Yerevan, having declared their willingness to recognize each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, would suffer the most from such a situation. Hence, both should make efforts to reach a deal with a delicate geopolitical balance", he writes.

Russia found itself in the company of only four other countries at a vote at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday (12 October) which condemned its annexation of Ukrainian territory The resolution calls on all States, the UN and international organisations not to recognize any of Russia’s annexation claim and demands the immediate reversal of its annexation declaration. 143 courties supported the resolution that condemned Russia's annexations. The four countries that supported Russia were Belarus, Nicaragua, North Korea, and Syria 35 countries abstained, namely: Algeria, Armenia, Bolivia, Burundi, Central African Republic, China, Republic of the Congo, Cuba, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Guinea, Honduras, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Lesotho, Mali, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Pakistan, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Zimbabwe. Ten countries were absent and so their vote was not recorded. They were: Azerbaijan, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Djibouti, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Sao Tome and Principle, Turkmenistan and Venezuela.

Leaders of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United States, United Kingdom, together with the European Union) met virtually in extraordinary session on Monday to discuss developments in the Ukraine situation, and particularly the recent Russian missile attacks against Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure. The meeting was convened by Germany which holds the current chairmanship of the Group. In a tough statement, the G7 leaders said that Russia has blatantly violated the principles enshrined in the UN Charter and called upon all countries to unequivocally reject these violations of international law and demand that Russia cease all hostilities and immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its troops and military equipment from Ukraine. The statement also had a word of warning for Russia: "We deplore deliberate Russian escalatory steps, including the partial mobilisation of reservists and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric, which is putting global peace and security at risk. We reaffirm that any use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons by Russia would be met with severe consequences". Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky also attended the virtual summit and he was assured that the G7 countries are undeterred and steadfast in their commitment to provide the support Ukraine needs to uphold its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The president of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), met in Moscow on Tuesday (11 October) with president Valdimir Putin of Russia. Putin warmly greeted his UAE guest at the Kostantinovsky Palace. The visit comes as Gulf states ponder about the new world order, Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the world order that had emerged at the end of the Cold War had clearly run out of steam. Russia and the West, instead of partners in the international system through membership of the G8, cooperation in space, and extensive arms control agreements, became first rivals, and, since February this year, enemies. China, whose rise over the last four decades as an economic power was first admired, has subsequently become a “systematic rival”. As it verges on superpower status it has become more assertive and less predictable. The US and its allies are seriously worried.  For the countries of the Gulf this new world order is uncharted waters. During the Cold War the Gulf was first a British lake, and later an American one. The American shield protected the Gulf states against intruders. When Iraq invaded Kuwait and occupied it in 1990, the US and its allies led the international community in a fightback, and Saddam Hussein was driven back across the border with a bloody nose. When he tried to rear his head again, the West finished him off. Then there was Iran. A huge American presence, with other allies in the wings, saw off Iranian ambitions in the region. It seemed that US-GCC relations were set in stone. Yet as the world reverted back to a multipolar state - the parameters of which are as yet undefined - it was only the naïve who thought that the GCC states will simply slide back to their old role of doing the USA's bidding in return for protection. Things in the Gulf have changed dramatically in the last six decades, and in the last decade in particular, in political terms the region is unrecognisable. In Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Doha and elsewhere the national interest has been re-defined.