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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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Analysis
The Limits of China’s “No Limits” Partnership with Russia

The Limits of China’s “No Limits” Partnership with Russia

This analysis was prepared for commonspace.eu by Anna Szedlacsek, Junior Research Assistant at LINKS Europe ================================================ The relationship between Russia and China has become one of the most consequential strategic partnerships in contemporary international politics. Often portrayed as an emerging anti-Western alliance, the two countries have significantly expanded their cooperation in the diplomatic, military, economic and technological spheres. Their partnership is united above all by a shared interest in reducing Western – particularly American – influence and promoting a more multipolar international order. However, describing the relationship as a fully-fledged alliance risks overstating both its cohesion and durability.  The modern partnership between Russia and China began in earnest following the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Facing a new unipolar world dominated by the United States, both Moscow and Beijing realized that political alignment had become a strategic necessity to counterbalance American power. In 2001, the official framework for the modern partnership was solidified with the signing of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation by Russian President Vladimir Putin and general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Jiang Zemin. This treaty formally ended decades of border tensions, established regular communication channels between their militaries, and laid the groundwork for closer diplomatic coordination.  The partnership took a new turn after Xi Jinping took office in late 2012 and Vladimir Putin returned to the Russian presidency that same year. Driven by a shared goal of contesting U.S. global influence and preserving their respective authoritarian regimes, the two leaders dramatically deepened bureaucratic and military linkages.  Following Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and the resulting Western sanctions, Russia’s economy became heavily dependent on Beijing’s support. On February 4, 2022 – just before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine – Russia-China reached their all time high when Putin and Xi met in Beijing to publicly declare a "no limits" partnership with "no forbidden areas of cooperation." Since the start of the war, Russia has overwhelmingly become the partner more dependent on the other. Faced with a new array of international sanctions, the Kremlin was forced to rely on China for goods on the G7 Common High Priority Items List, including semiconductors, integrated circuits, lithium-ion batteries, and computer numerical control (CNC) machines for metal shaping. Similarly, an analysis of recovered Russian weapons conducted by the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) showed that the bulk of Russia’s foreign components are actually Western-made, with China funneling these Western parts to Russia through parallel imports, shell firms in jurisdictions like Hong Kong, and domestic Chinese facilities manufacturing Western designs.  (to read the full analysis click the image)
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News
''Coalition of the Willing'' meets in Kyiv to restate its support for Ukraine

''Coalition of the Willing'' meets in Kyiv to restate its support for Ukraine

The ''Coalition of the  Willing''  of thirty five countries, has renewed its support of Ukriane, at a meeting in Kyiv, held on Ukraine's national day on 24 August, under the chairmanship of British Prime Minister,A ndy Burnham. Burnham has promised to keep up the pressure on Russia despite Moscow's "outrageous threats", on his first official visit to Ukraine as UK prime minister. Burnham met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and chaired his first meeting of the "coalition of the willing", set up by the UK and France under his predecessor Sir Keir Starmer. He said the coalition was "doing everything we can" while urging the US Congress to "ratchet up" economic pressure on Russia. The government has agreed to hand over blueprints for British-made components for the Scalp missile, a French version of the UK's Storm Shadow cruise missile - allowing Ukraine to produce the long-range weapon domestically. During the meeting with France and Ukraine, Burnham said allies were doing "everything we can" to "dig into our own stocks and help others dig into their stocks" of air defences to protect Ukraine. "This is the moment to keep up the pressure on Russia, the moment to squeeze their ability to fund this illegal war," Burnham said, praising the "strength" of the Ukrainian people. "Ukraine has been Europe's protector, not a drain on our security but the front line in keeping Europe safe." It comes after Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov criticised the UK's decision to share the missile blueprints. Peskov said it prevented "even the slightest progress" towards achieving peace. He told reporters on Monday that the Russian military was already gathering data to locate any missile production sites to destroy them. "Britain is involved in this war on the side of the Kyiv regime. Britain methodically and regularly adds fuel to the fire," he added. In response, Burnham said: "Who started the fire? That's the question, isn't it?" He added the issue of missile interceptors would be the main topic at the coalition of the willing meeting. Burnham chaired his first meeting of the "coalition of the willing" in Kyiv Burnham has been reaffirming the UK's backing for Kyiv in the wake of escalating Russian strikes on Ukraine in recent weeks - including one on a shopping centre on Friday that killed at least 16 people. In a joint statement after the meeting, Burnham and co-chairs French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the group would aim to strength Kyiv's air defences "as a matter or urgent priority". They also condemned Moscow's "systemic and escalating strikes against Ukraine's cities, critical infrastructure and civilians" and pledged to "constrain Russia's war chest through sanctions and actions against the "shadow fleet". (click image to read more).
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News
Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan sign "Treaty of Eternal Friendship"

Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan sign "Treaty of Eternal Friendship"

Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan have signed a "Treaty of Eternal Friendship", at the end of a State Visit of Azerbaijani President, Ilham  Aliyev, to Tashkent. On August 23, a ceremony for the signing and exchange of documents between Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan was held in Tashkent with the participation of President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The Treaty marks a high point in relations between the two countries, as a confidant Azerbaijan widen its relations with Central Asia and its countries, whilst Uzbekistan seeks to consolidate new routes to the wider world. President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed the “Treaty on Eternal Friendship between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Uzbekistan” and the “Decision of the Third Meeting of the Supreme Interstate Council of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Uzbekistan”. President Mirzozayev said, ''The current state visit of the President of Azerbaijan to Uzbekistan is, without exaggeration, of historic significance. We have spoken about this several times today, because everything we sign and every agreement we reach represents a historic milestone in bilateral cooperation. Today, we signed the Treaty on Eternal Friendship. Just imagine the level to which our relations have reached between our regions, businesses, governments and parliaments. This is not simply a document; it reflects our shared commitment to deepening cooperation, expanding opportunities for interaction and building a common future.'' (Click picture to read more)
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News
Sanction Israel: More than one hundred former British and French diplomats make public call for safeguarding the rule of law

Sanction Israel: More than one hundred former British and French diplomats make public call for safeguarding the rule of law

In response to Israel's policy of occupation and destruction, around one hundred former representatives of France and the United Kingdom urge their governments to act through a series of sanctions aimed at safeguarding the rule of law. A coalition of 102 former French and British diplomats is calling on their countries to jointly sanction Israel, warning in an open letter that Israeli policy in occupied Palestinian territory threatens to permanently erase the possibility of a Palestinian state. France and the United Kingdom “must act together to uphold international law in Palestine”, said the letter published on Saturday by French outlet Le Monde. It urged the two governments to push for “equal rights for Israelis and Palestinians”. The signatories include former British ambassadors to the United Nations, Jeremy Greenstock and Emyr Jones Parry, and former French Middle East directors, Yves Aubin de la Messuziere and Denis Bauchard, drawing on decades of diplomatic postings across the region. “Palestinian house demolitions and rampant settler violence – with the connivance of the Israeli army and police – amount to ethnic cleansing,” said the letter. “The world no longer sees Israel as a genuine democracy,” it added. Such language, said Nicholas Hopton, a former UK ambassador to Iran, Qatar and Yemen and one of the signatories, was not invented by the diplomats themselves. “The words are not our own,” he told Al Jazeera. “They are taken from the international legal bodies, the UN, those who have been observing from a neutral position and with expertise.” (click image to read in full)
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News
Russian attacks against Ukrainian civilians continue

Russian attacks against Ukrainian civilians continue

Rescuers in Ukraine are continuing their search for survivors in the wreckage of a big shopping centre hit by Russia on Friday. Sixteen people were killed and 130 injured when two drones hit the busy centre in Kryvyi Rih in quick succession in what is known as a double-tap strike. Four people are still missing. The search and rescue operation could last for another two days. President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the "cynical and despicable" attack in which the second drone targeted emergency workers. The sides exchanged more fire overnight, with Ukrainian attacks said to have killed at least four people in Russia, including two children, and three people reported dead by Kyiv as a result of Russian strikes. The death toll from Friday's attack reached 16 after another body was retrieved from the rubble overnight, said Dnipropetrovsk regional head Oleksandr Hanzha. "We're doing everything possible to speed up... the search and rescue operation," he told Ukrainian TV on Saturday morning. (click image tio read more)