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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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GULF CRISIS
US and Iran will meet on Tuesday in Qatar to try to save MOU

US and Iran will meet on Tuesday in Qatar to try to save MOU

Representatives of the United States and Iran are expected to meet in Qatar on Tuesday (30 June) in an attempt to salvage the Memorandum of Understanding that they signed a few days ago, but that has been inreasingly under threat as both sides reverted to military action against each other. Once more the main contention is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran insists that they control it, and any traffic through the straits have to be with their approval. The US insists that the Straits need to be open, unimpeded. Speaking in Baghdad on Sunday (28 June),  Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says responsability for the Strait of Hormuz lies solely with Tehran and warned that any attempt to bypass its preferred route in the waterwawill cause “tension and escalation”. The UN's International Maritime Organization (IMO) has paused the planned evacuation of more than 11,000 sailors stranded in the Strait of Hormuz after a cargo ship passing through the waterway was attacked. IMO chief Arsenio Dominguez said several boats had already been evacuated, but the agency wanted to ensure that "necessary safety guarantees" would continue to be in place. The British maritime security agency UKMTO reported on Thursday that a ship had been struck 7.5 nautical miles southeast of Oman's port of Dahit by "an unknown projectile". No casualties were reported. (click the image to read the full report)
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GULF CRISIS
Iraq proposes new initiative to bring Iran in discussion with GCC countries

Iraq proposes new initiative to bring Iran in discussion with GCC countries

The proposal was made by the Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, in a meeting in Baghdad on Sunday (28 June) with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi. Heading a political delegation, Araghchi arrived in the Iraqi capital on Sunday and was welcomed by Iraqi Communications Minister Mustafa Sand. According to Iraqi media reports, Sunday's discussions in Baghdad are expected to cover the Iran-US Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), Iraq’s debt payments to Iran, border security, and measures to prevent anti-Iran groups from operating on Iraqi territory. Araghchi was also expected to coordinate with Iraqi authorities regarding arrangements for the funeral ceremonies of the martyred Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei in Iraq’s holy shrines. Speaking at a press conference after his meeting with Iraqi Foreign Minister Hussein, Araghchi welcomed the Iraqi proposal.
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Commentary
As Kazakhstan closes lucrative deals in Brussels, Kyrgyzstan looks to regain the EU’s favour

As Kazakhstan closes lucrative deals in Brussels, Kyrgyzstan looks to regain the EU’s favour

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev visited Brussels this week, closing major deals in the process, worth around 462 million USD or 407 million EUR in total. The four deals making up this package were unveiled at the “Strengthening EU-Kazakhstan Connectivity: Perspectives and Strategic Potential of the Middle Corridor” business forum, and as the name of the forum already indicates, all four of them revolve around transport and Eurasian connectivity. The conference was organised by Kazakhstan’s national railway operator, bringing together representatives of the European Commission, European Parliament, and stakeholders from industry, in particular European transport and logistics companies. More information can be found in our article written on the event, which has been published on commonspace.eu. However, the transport deals only turned out to be the start of business deals signed during Tokayev’s Brussels visit. The Kazakh president would go on to meet with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa. Their joint statement following the meeting unsurprisingly focused on connectivity, energy security and resilient supply chains. Negotiators of the two parties also finished talks on a visa agreement simplifying short stays in the EU for Kazakh citizens. The agreement itself is not yet in force and only covers the process for Kazakh citizens to apply for a short-stay EU visa. A readmission agreement was also reached to facilitate the enforcement of the EU’s migration rules. Interestingly, the EU Commission’s press release made sure to cite “significant progress and good cooperation with Kazakhstan to prevent the circumvention of EU sanctions” as the reason for the discussions having taken place and ultimately for these agreements being reached, clearly making sure to highlight Kazakhstan’s cooperative conduct on sanctions. While this statement was not covered by most media outlets, the fact that the Commission’s press service made sure to include it should not be overlooked. The statement serves as a clear signal to relevant policymakers, who unlike the average reader, will be keenly aware of its inclusion and therefore of the Commission’s implied overarching message that those who play along with its sanctions regime will be rewarded with opportunities like these negotiations and potentially further lucrative prospects with the large economic bloc. (To read the full briefing, click on the image above)