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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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KEY NATO SUMMIT TO OPEN IN ANKARA TODAY

KEY NATO SUMMIT TO OPEN IN ANKARA TODAY

A key NATO summit will open in Ankara today, Tuesday, 7th July. Leaders of the members of the alliance, including US president Donald Trump, are travelling to the Turkish capital for the summit. On Monday (6 July) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met in Ankara with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. According to Turkish media, the parties discussed the agenda for the upcoming NATO summit, as well as current regional and global issues. Erdogan stated that Turkey had completed preparations for the leaders' meeting and expressed hope that the summit would be successful. According to the Turkish president, the key topics of the summit will be collective defense and expanding allied cooperation in the defense industry. He also noted the importance of the Defense Industry Forum, which will be held on the sidelines of the NATO summit. On Monday (6 July 2026), NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte previewed the Ankara Summit, explaining that it will focus on delivery. Allies are expected to demonstrate how they are transforming the commitments made at The Hague last year into stronger armed forces, increased defence production, and more capabilities needed to defend the Alliance. The Secretary General highlighted the progress made by European Allies and Canada in investing 5% of GDP on defence by 2035.  “Here in Ankara, I expect nations to present clear, concrete and credible plans to reach that 5% goal. And the evidence we see so far is impressive,” said Mr Rutte, “Just one year into a 10-year project, we see that European Allies and Canada are already investing around 4% of their GDP in defence and security.” The Secretary General set out how NATO Allies are turning the extra cash into capabilities. “We will announce tens of billions in new contracts that will provide the crucial kit we need to deter and defend”, said Mr Rutte in Ankara, “This will help grow our economies, spread innovation and support hundreds of thousands of jobs, on both sides of the Atlantic.” Support for Ukraine will also be an important focus of the Summit of Allied Heads of State and Government. “Allies and NATO partners must continue to ensure Ukraine gets what it needs,” said the Secretary General, “And let me be clear, all Allies need to pull their weight, so that our support to Ukraine continues to flow. Because Ukraine’s security is so closely linked with our own.” Please read more on our live blog
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Nearly half a million Russians killed in Ukraine but Moscow far from reaching its objectives despite the bombing of civilian targets in Kyiv (updated)

Nearly half a million Russians killed in Ukraine but Moscow far from reaching its objectives despite the bombing of civilian targets in Kyiv (updated)

Nearly half a million Russians have died in fighting in Ukraine, as Vladimir Putin continues to push his country to the brink. His aim of completely controlling the Donbass region, which he annexed after invading Ukraine in 2022, seems more distant than ever. However, Putin can still bomb civilian targets in Kyiv. The Ukrainian Air Force says a "serious shortage" of interceptor missiles meant none of the 23 ballistic missiles fired by Russia at Kyiv on Sunday night were shot down. At least 15 people were killed in the second large-scale Russian attack on the Ukrainian capital in a week, officials said. Seven more were killed in the wider Kyiv region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has appealed for allies to take "strong decisions" at this week's Nato summit to provide Kyiv with air defences. After the strikes, he said the Ukrainian military had been successful in intercepting cruise missiles and drones – but not ballistic missiles. Sunday's "massive Russian attack" consisted of 68 missiles and 351 strike drones, he said in a post on X. The air force shot down or suppressed 37 missiles and 326 drones, it said. Zelensky warned that Moscow would continue to hit residential buildings as long as defensive Patriot missiles "remain in our allies' stockpiles". After a bleak winter which saw months of fierce Russian bombing of Ukrainian energy infrastructure, the future is beginning to look more positive for Kyiv Russia’s frontline advances have slowed almost to a halt, as Ukrainian counter-attacks and defensive tactics become more effective. Successes in local counterattacks have become more frequent, as Ukrainian forces scale up their use of ground robots and sshort-range drone warfare. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) paints a bleak picture of Russian casualties. Between February 2022 and June 2026, there have been as many as 450,000 Russian battlefield deaths and 1.4 million casualties, it says. The UK’s biggest spy agency, GCHQ, has produced a similar figure. In May, GCHQ director Anne Keast-Butler said in her inaugural public speech that nearly 500,000 Russian soldiers had been killed. The massive death toll is a product of several factors, including an attritional warfare strategy in which Moscow sends thousands of troops towards fortified Ukrainian defences, attempting to grind Kyiv’s forces down with sheer manpower. (click image to read more)
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Millions attend Khamanei's funeral

Millions attend Khamanei's funeral

Large crowds of black-clad mourners have gathered outside Tehran's main mosque to pay their respects to Iran's former supreme leader on the first day of his funeral commemorations. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's body is currently lying in state at the Grand Mosalla, ahead of his burial in his hometown of Mashhad next Thursday. Authorities expect 15-20 million people to attend the ceremonies across Iran and Iraq over the coming days, which take place more than four months after Khamenei was killed in US and Israeli strikes. Masses of supporters of the Islamic regime turned out on Saturday morning,  chanting slogans against the US and in support of revenge for the ayatollah's killing. "We came [to the funeral] because we promised the supreme leader we would stand by him to the very end," 37-year-old professor Reza told news agency AFP in the Grand Mosalla's courtyard. "For a long time, we shouted that we would sacrifice our lives for the leader, but it was he who sacrificed himself for us." Arash Rahimi, 40, told Reuters: "Everyone here has come to avenge the blood of their supreme leader. "As our leader has said, we have a blood feud with the United States. Our relations with the United States will never be good." Khamenei was killed during joint Israeli and US strikes on Iran in late February, in what quickly spiralled into a wider regional conflict. US President Donald Trump said Iran's government was "dying to settle" a peace deal to end the war after a preliminary agreement was struck between the two, adding on Friday: "We gave them [Iran] a week off for a funeral because we're nice." Much of central Tehran will be locked down over the weekend as the funeral ceremony gets under way. It is expected to be the largest funeral ever in terms of attendees as a proportion of the country's population. Khamenei's body will lie in the Grand Mosalla for three days, alongside the remains of family members who were also killed in the air strikes. There will then be three further days of events outside of the capital.