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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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GULF CRISIS
US and Iran exchange attacks despite cease-fire

US and Iran exchange attacks despite cease-fire

The fragile cease fire between the United States and Iran continued being tested last night, The US said it had hit 90 targets in Iran, and Iranian media reported that explosions were heard in areas along the country's southern coast. Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar have subsequently reported Iranian attacks - Iran said it had targeted US bases in the three countries. Meanwhile, ships hoping to sail through the Strait of Hormuz face a confusing picture, with both sides seeking to push traffic through different routes. Vessels have been advised to avoid going through the middle of the Strait of Hormuz due to the ongoing conflict. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) - which the US is a member of - has recommended vessels take a route close to the coast of Oman at the south of the strait, in order to avoid the risk of Iranian mines. But Iran says no vessel is permitted to pass through the strait unless it travels along a designated route further north, closer to its coastline. Its Persian Gulf Strait Authority will only issue permits if that route is taken, with others "strictly prohibited". These competing attempts to manage how the strait operates have added to the fraught situation facing shipping companies in the vitally important shipping lane. The Iranian foreign ministry has accused the US of a "flagrant breach" of parts of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed on 17 June, which brought about a temporary truce. That called for an "immediate and permanent termination of military operations", and said Iran would "make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels" through the Strait of Hormuz. How both sides interpret that part of the MoU has become a key point of tensions in this conflict. The foreign ministry says the US carried out attacks under the "false pretext" of responding to "alleged incidents involving several non-compliant vessels" in the strait. The US previously accused Iran of a "clear violation of the ceasefire" for targeting three commercial ships in the strait. Iran has not claimed responsibility for those attacks. The foreign ministry also condemns "crude rhetoric" from Donald Trump, who on Wednesday called Iran's leadership "scum" and "cuckoo". It accuses the US of a "grave war crime" for targeting of several locations, including two railway bridges.
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News
NATO ANKARA SUMMIT DECLARATION

NATO ANKARA SUMMIT DECLARATION

TEXT OF NATO ANKARA SUMMIT DECLARATION: "We, the Heads of State and Government of the North Atlantic Alliance, have gathered in Ankara to reaffirm our ironclad commitment to our collective defence under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty and to the transatlantic bond.  An attack on one is an attack on all.  Our unity, solidarity and collective strength remain the foundation of peace, security, and prosperity for the one billion citizens in our Alliance of free and democratic nations.  We remain committed to our 360-degree approach to deterrence and defence. To counter the long-term threat Russia poses to Euro-Atlantic security and stability, and the persistent threat of terrorism, Allies are delivering on The Hague defence commitment.  In 2025, European Allies and Canada increased their investments in core defence requirements by more than $139 billion.  Our investments are delivering the capabilities we need while strengthening our industrial base and resilience.  Today in Ankara, we announce more than $50 billion in new procurements and commit to expanding collective manufacturing capacity and working with industry to accelerate innovation.  We will continue our work to eliminate defence trade barriers among Allies and leverage NATO’s partnerships to maximise defence industrial depth and cooperation. We are building the future: a stronger Europe in a stronger NATO – a modernised Alliance.  European Allies and Canada, working with the United States, are assuming greater responsibility for the Alliance’s defence.  NATO’s deterrence and defence rest on an appropriate mix of nuclear, conventional, and missile defence capabilities, complemented by space and cyber assets.  We are committed to maintaining our combat advantage.  We are investing in our ability to deploy, enable and sustain our armed forces and deliver our capability targets in all domains, including in deep precision strike, integrated air and missile defence, uncrewed systems, cutting edge technologies, and intelligence capabilities.  We are developing an interoperable transatlantic warfighting cloud and adopting powerful AI models. Ukraine contributes to transatlantic security, and Allies stand united in our unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its freedom, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.  European Allies and Canada now finance the vast majority of security assistance to Ukraine through bilateral and multilateral means.  Allies underscore that this support must be equitable, predictable, and sustainable in the long-term.  For 2026, Allies pledge €70 billion in military equipment, assistance and training for Ukraine and affirm their sovereign commitments to sustaining at least equivalent levels in 2027.  To this end, we welcome the European Union’s decision to provide multi-year funding to Ukraine through the Ukraine Support Loan. The Alliance continues to respond and adapt to the strategic competition, pervasive instability, hybrid threats and recurrent shocks that define our broader security environment.  Allies reiterate that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon and call on Iran to fully respect freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. We express our appreciation for the generous hospitality extended to us by Türkiye. We look forward to our next meeting."
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News
NATO LEADERS GATHER IN ANKARA FOR  DEFINING SUMMIT

NATO LEADERS GATHER IN ANKARA FOR DEFINING SUMMIT

NATO leaders gathered in Ankara on Wednesday, for the main day of their annual summit. Ukraine is one of the main topics at the summit. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky used a speech at the summit on Tuesday to urge Ukraine's allies to deliver the air defence systems it urgently needs to protect it from escalating Russian attacks. Ukraine has been stepping up its own long-range drone and missile attacks against Russia, hitting oil refineries and military targets there and causing significant fuel shortages and power cuts. "Ukraine's Armed Forces have proved that the effective use of long-range systems can have game-changing impacts on the battlefield, giving the Armed Forces the ability to degrade enemy forces far behind the frontline," Number 10 said. "Ukrainian long-range strikes, such as those on key logistics hubs, have significantly impacted Russia's ability to sustain their offensives." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that Russia, which invaded Ukraine in 2022, would closely monitor the summit in Ankara..
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GULF CRISIS
The Gulf is again on fire

The Gulf is again on fire

The US launched strikes on Iran and revoked a temporary waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil, following attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. US, Qatari and Saudi officials blamed Iran for the attacks on the vessels. US Central Command said  that it had begun “launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway”. Tehran has not directly claimed responsibility for the attacks, but has repeatedly warned vessels against attempting to transit the waterway on routes it has not approved. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said earlier that Tehran would take “decisive actions to safeguard its national interests and security” in response to the revocation of the sanctions waiver, describing the move as a “blatant violation” of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by Washington and Tehran on June 17. Oil prices have surged as renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran threaten to derail a fragile ceasefire that had brought some relief to global energy markets. Brent crude, the main international benchmark, rose as much as 3 percent on Wednesday, reversing a slide that had seen prices return to pre-war levels. Brent futures for September stood at $76.07 a barrel as of 04:00 GMT, the highest since June 23. The jump came after the US launched strikes on Iran and revoked a temporary waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil, following attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. US, Qatari and Saudi officials blamed Iran for the attacks on the vessels..