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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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Finland hosts European Arctic Summit

Finland hosts European Arctic Summit

The Arctic summit of European leaders will be held in Rovaniemi, a municipality in Northern Finland on 13–14 September. Prime Minister Petteri Orpo has invited a group of EU leaders to the summit. The aim of the summit is to strengthen the EU’s common strategic approach to the Arctic region as its geopolitical significance continues to grow rapidly. “The Arctic region is an increasingly important part of Europe's security environment. The European Union has direct interests in its stability, security and sustainable development. It is very valuable to be able to discuss these issues together with a comprehensive group of EU leaders,” said Orpo. The summit will be attended by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Prime Minister of Poland Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Estonia Kristen Michal, Prime Minister of Latvia Andris Kulbergs, President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda and President of Romania Nicușor Dan. President of the European Council António Costa and High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas will also take part in the summit. The summit is taking place against an extremely dynamic backdrop. In the face of accelerating climate change and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the economic importance of the northeast passage is growing. For 2026, more than forty million tonnes of freight are expected to pass through the Northern Sea Route for the first time, primarily due to expanded trade between Russia and China. Furthermore, in August, China launched its first regular container service through the Arctic. Finally, the EU’s Arctic policy itself is set for a reorientation: the Commission intends to present an updated Arctic strategy this autumn, in which security is to play a central role for the first time. Kaja Kallas had already advocated for this at the Arctic Frontiers conference in Tromsø earlier this year, stating that the Arctic needed more attention, more resources, and more hard power. The summit in Rovaniemi can therefore also be seen as a dress rehearsal for the new strategy. Finland brings a unique perspective to this debate: over 95 per cent of Finland’s foreign trade in goods is conducted by sea, and its ports freeze over almost every winter. This structural peculiarity has given rise to a strong export sector in the field of icebreakers: Finnish companies have designed around 80 per cent of all icebreakers worldwide and built around 60 per cent; even the US Coast Guard is having the first vessels of its new Arctic Security Cutter class built in Finland because the domestic alternative could not meet the schedule. The fact that this leverage can also be utilised geopolitically has already been successfully demonstrated. At the end of September 2022, the Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs refused to grant an export licence for an LNG icebreaker ordered by the Russian mining group Norilsk Nickel, thereby bringing to an end a project that would have created around 2,100 person-years of employment. (click the image to read more).
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GULF CRISIS
Saudi Arabia shuts down east-west strategic pipeline after attack

Saudi Arabia shuts down east-west strategic pipeline after attack

Saudi Arabia has closed a critical oil pipeline after it was attacked by drones launched from Iraq, as conflict in the Middle East widens. Iraq said it had fired a military commander and launched an investigation after admitting the drone attack on its neighbour's East-West pipeline had originated in one of its provinces bordering Iran. The 1,200km (745 mile) pipeline has helped Saudi Arabia - the world's largest crude oil exporter - bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The incident comes amid a major advance by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, putting more pressure on global oil shipping routes as the US-Iran war stretches into its seventh month. Riyadh on Friday said it had shut the pipeline as a precaution, as satellite images of scorched ground and smoke near the site emerged. The foreign ministry said the attack resulted in some injuries and damage, which was still being assessed. The pipeline has been moving 4% to 5% of global oil supply, news agency Reuters has reported, citing ship tracking companies and analysts. Saudi Arabia has chosen not to retaliate at this stage, its foreign ministry says, following a call from Iraq's prime minister. It said the kingdom would "support the efforts of the Iraqi government" to "prevent attacks" launched from the country against neighbouring states. "The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia affirms that it reserves its right to take all necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty and security, protect its facilities, and ensure the safety of its citizens and residents," the statement added. The Iraqi prime minister's office in its own statement said the operations commander in the Maysan governorate - a province which borders Iran - had been removed from his post following confirmation the drone attack had been launched from that region. (Click image to read more).
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GULF CRISIS
Houthis capture Perim Island, consolidating their hold on Bab el Mandeb

Houthis capture Perim Island, consolidating their hold on Bab el Mandeb

​ In a move that throws the Middle East into further turmoil, Yemen's Houthi movement are now in control of the entire western coast of Yemen and the strategic island of Perim, effectively giving them unmatched control over the Bab Al Mandeb strait, the Red Sea's key entry and exit point, Yemeni officials told Abu Dhabi's leading English-language newspaper, The National. "They took it all," one Yemeni security official said. "All of the west has fallen, and Perim Island too. They have everything now," he added. A second security official confirmed the details and said the Iran-backed Houthis had also taken control of Zuqar, another strategic Red Sea island. After taking control of Mokha on Thursday, the Houthis continued their offensive southwards and seized Dhubab, the last major town on Yemen's western coast and one that directly overlooks the Bab Al Mandeb Strait and Perim Island, also known as Mayyun. ​​ Yemen's Houthi rebels are now in control of the entire western coast of Yemen and the strategic island of Perim, effectively giving them unmatched control over the Bab Al Mandeb strait, the Red Sea's key entry and exit point, Yemeni officials told The National. "They took it all," one Yemeni security official said. "All of the west has fallen, and Perim Island too. They have everything now," he added. A second security official confirmed the details and said the Iran-backed Houthis had also taken control of Zuqar, another strategic Red Sea island. After taking control of Mokha on Thursday, the Houthis continued their offensive southwards and seized Dhubab, the last major town on Yemen's western coast and one that directly overlooks the Bab Al Mandeb Strait and Perim Island, also known as Mayyun. Yemen's Houthi rebels are now in control of the entire western coast of Yemen and the strategic island of Perim, effectively giving them unmatched control over the Bab Al Mandeb strait, the Red Sea's key entry and exit point, Yemeni officials told The National. "They took it all," one Yemeni security official said. "All of the west has fallen, and Perim Island too. They have everything now," he added. A second security official confirmed the details and said the Iran-backed Houthis had also taken control of Zuqar, another strategic Red Sea island. After taking control of Mokha on Thursday, the Houthis continued their offensive southwards and seized Dhubab, the last major town on Yemen's western coast and one that directly overlooks the Bab Al Mandeb Strait and Perim Island, also known as Mayyun. ​