Domestic Politics

A second Trump presidency is unlikely to bring a sharp focus to the South Caucasus and American policy for the region will hinge on existing bipartisan frameworks and congressional initiatives rather than direct presidential involvement, according to an analysis by Vita van Dreven of The Hague Institute for Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia. She explores how the Trump presidency might impact the South Caucasus, analysing potential policy directions and their implications for the region:

President Ilham Aliyev has rejected criticism over the arrests of journalists and said Azerbaijan has "a free press and a free internet." Seven people went on trial in Azerbaijan on Tuesday in the latest of a series of cases against staff of independent news media, prompting accusations of a crackdown on the press. Six of the defendants are affiliated with Abzas Media, an independent outlet focused on corruption and human rights in Azerbaijan, which ranks 164th of 180 countries in Reporters without Borders' (RSF) World Press Freedom Index. The seventh is a reporter with the Azeri language service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), a US government funded outlet.

The working visit by the Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze to Azerbaijan on January 17 suggests that both countries recognise that close cooperation is essential for ensuring stability and fostering prosperity in the region. During the visit, Kobakhidze met with Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Asadov and participated in a session of the joint intergovernmental commission, which included delegations from both countries. The discussions revolved around the partnership between the two countries, bolstering trade and economic ties, as well as expanding cooperation in the energy and transportation sectors.

The  Georgian government has driven the country toward a human rights crisis in 2024, Human Rights Watch said in its World Report 2025. The report published Thursday stated that the Georgian government has adopted new repressive laws, unleashed brutal police violence against mostly peaceful protesters, and pivoted away from the European Union accession process and the human rights reforms this would have required.

Giorgi Gakharia, a former prime minister of Georgia who now leads one of the country's main opposition groups, was hospitalised after being severely beaten. Acording to media reports he sustained injuries on his face and head during an assault by several men at a hotel lobby in Batumi. In a Facebook post on Wednesday, Gakharia said his health was stable. His party, For Georgia, called the assault a "brutal, coordinated group attack" and said the government was to blame. Party in government has denied any wrongdoing.

Armenia's government has approved legislation calling for the country to launch the process that will open the path to discussions with Brussels for eventual membership in the European Union. A bill was drafted in response to a petition that called for the country to submit an application to join the EU. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan emphasised to the cabinet on Thursday that the public should not expect a rapid accession to the EU, and that it would in any case require public approval. “Adopting the law doesn’t literally mean Armenia is joining the EU because that cannot be done through a law or government decision, the decision on that can only be made through a referendum,” Pashinyan said after the decision.

If there is one thing that strikes out from the events in Georgia in the last five weeks it is Salome Zurabishvili and the role she has played in keeping together the disparate Georgian Opposition. She has risen to the occasion in a way few thought she has the capacity to do. Georgian Dream never took her seriously, in all the time she was president. That had little consequence. But their failure to take her seriously now is a fatal mistake which will cost them dearly. Salome Zurabishvili left the Orbeliani Palace on 29 December, saying she was taking her legitimacy with her. Most Georgians still see her as the president. In any case, Salome Zurabishvili has become a phenomena. She will be a part of any future solution for Georgia Georgian Dream were very keen to replace Salome Zurabishvili. But their choice is unfortunate. Most Georgians had not heard of Mikheil Kavelashvili before he was nominated to the post of president. Those that did, remembered him as an ex-footballer. In parliament his role was completely undistinguished: one of a cohort of men that Georgian Dream wheels out whenever it needs the numbers to pass a law or some other administrative measure. Under the Georgian constitution, the president is a symbolic figurehead. But Kavelashvili cannot even be that. His time as president is likely to be a short and unhappy one. Crises? What crises? That Georgia is in the middle of its most serious crises since independence is recognised by most. But the Georgian Dream government is in complete denial. It is treating events on the streets of Tbilisi and other Georgian cities as temporary aberrations which will soon blow away and are forgotten. It is completely indifferent to the calls of the international community. This is an example of how cut-off the Georgian Dream government is from reality. It was left to Gia Volski, the ascetic 1st Deputy Speaker of Parliament, to articulate a response to the accusation that the Georgian government was ignoring a major crises. Speaking at a press briefing on 30 December, Volski said: “The situation is difficult, but it does not indicate the existence of a political crisis”. Volski than explained what in his view constitutes a crises: “a political crisis is a situation when the government cannot be approved, the budget cannot be adopted or a vote of no confidence is expressed in the government!” Until they admit there is a crisis the Georgian Dream will not take measures that would contribute to its solution. Ivanishvili must get real In all this, a central figure is the de facto leader of Georgian Dream and ruler of Georgia, Bidzina Ivanishvili. This week he was included on a US sanction list. But many think it could have been worse – and some think it should have been worse. But it seems what the Americans tried to do is to bring Bidzina to his senses. Ivanishvili must get real for his sake, and for the sake of Georgia. There is still a small chance that he will. Georgians need to draw lessons from present events in order to build a future that is both honourable and sustainable.

Mikheil Kavelashvili was sworn in as president of Georgia on Sunday as thousands of protesters gathered in the capital Tbilisi to demonstrate against his inauguration. Outgoing President Salome Zourabichvili, an opponent of the ruling Georgian Dream party said in a defiant speech to supporters outside the presidential palace that she was leaving the residence but that Kavelashvili had no legitimacy as president.

n Baku, flags on official buildings and embassies of foreign countries flew at half mast Thursday (26 December) as Azerbaijan observed a day of mourning following the crash of an AZAL plane which resulted in the death of 38 passengers and crew. The plane was on  a scheduled flight from Baku to Grozny, but was diverted to Kazakhstan because of bad weather. President Ilham Aliyev was informed of the crash whilst on his way to St Petersburg where he was to attend the informal CIS summit hosted by President Putin. He ordered his plan to return to Baku to lead the Azerbaijani response to the crash. Azerbaijani media speculated about the causes  of the crash, with some outlets saying that it was hit by a Chechen missile whilst approaching Grozny.