Conflict and Peace

The violent attack against the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran on 27 January has strained tensions between Azerbaijan and Iran, sparking fears of further deterioration in relations between the two countries, writers Vasif Huseynov in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. Azerbaijan rejected Iran’s assertions that the attack was driven by personal motives and accuses Tehran of whipping up anti Azerbaijani hysteria. All this has brought the bilateral relations between the two countries to a new low. It cannot be excluded that things will deteriorate even further, given that Tehran does not seem ready to renounce its claims against Azerbaijan. This constitutes an alarming threat to regional peace and security for a variety of reasons. Above all, the current state of bilateral relations, and the propagation of anti-Azerbaijani sentiments by the Iranian media, create a precarious situation that could easily spiral into escalation with the slightest incident or provocation. All this has brought the bilateral relations between the two countries to a new low. It cannot be excluded that things will deteriorate even further, given that Tehran does not seem ready to renounce its claims against Azerbaijan. This constitutes an alarming threat to regional peace and security for a variety of reasons. Above all, the current state of bilateral relations, and the propagation of anti-Azerbaijani sentiments by the Iranian media, create a precarious situation that could easily spiral into escalation with the slightest incident or provocation.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has addressed a joint meeting of the UK Parliament in the Palace of Westminster in London. Walking on stage shortly after 1pm local time on Wednesday (8 February), President Zelensky was greeted by rapturous applause and cheers from members of the House of Commons and the House of Lords. Introducing President Zelensky, Speaker of the House of Commons Lindsay Hoyle spoke about his first meeting with the Ukrainian head of state in October 2020, and about Zelensky's remote speech to the House of Commons on 8 March 2022, describing it as "devastating and powerful". The Speaker said he was "honoured you put yourself at risk to address us again and shine a light on the fact that your country is fighting for its survival". Before handing over to President Zelensky, Lindsay Hoyle finished by saying, "We will always be united in our unwavering belief in democracy. Slava Ukraini!" Speaking for some 20 minutes, President Zelensky began by thanking the United Kingdom for its support in training Ukrainian soldiers, also recounting his first visit to London approximately two and a half years ago.

Azerbaijan has closed the Lachin corridor since December 12, 2022. There are different interpretations of why Azerbaijan did it, and why Baku continues the blockade despite calls from the international community to change its course writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia, and the West, in one way or another, all suffer from the blockade. Ultimately, it is up to the Azerbaijani leadership to decide to re-open the road. "There can be other factors influencing Baku's decision however, one thing is clear – continuing the Nagorno Karabakh blockade harms everyone, and all interested parties should take steps to end it", he argues

The Joint Armenian-Azerbaijani Liaison Group on Confidence-building measures in support of lasting peace in the South Caucasus (JOLIG) met in Brussels on 1 – 2 February 2023. Armenian and Azerbaijani experts that form part of the Group discussed recent developments in the South Caucasus, developments in the process of normalising Armenia-Azerbaijan relations and establishing peace in the region, and how confidence-building measures can help overcome present and future problems and challenges. On 1 February, the Group had a substantive meeting with the European Union Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Toivo Klaar, who reiterated the continued and ongoing commitment of the European Union in support of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The group asked EUSR Toivo Klaar to convey their appreciation to European Council President Charles Michel for his continuing efforts to mediate between the two sides. The Group expressed its willingness to contribute with tangible actions and initiatives towards on-going European Union peace efforts in the region.

As the one-year anniversary of Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine approaches, Ukrainian officials are expressing concerns of a new major offensive following a recent large-scale Russian mobilisation. This comes as Kyiv prepares to host EU officials on Friday (3 February) for a summit on the embattled counry's progress towards EU membership. Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov estimates that Russia has mobilised up to 500,000 troops, despite official numbers claiming the mobilisation of 300,000 Russian troops. The estimates come after Ukrainian officials have announced high military activity on the Russian side of its border. Russia also celebrates its "Defender of the Fatherland Day" on 23 February, just one day before the one-year mark of the so-called "special military operation". 

Iran has summoned the Ukrainian chargé d'affairs in Tehran over comments made by a senior Ukrainian official about a suspected Israeli drone strike on an Iranian military facility late in Isfahan on Saturday (28 January). According to Iran's defence ministry, three drones were involved in the attack about 23:30 local time on Saturday night on what Iran's official Irna news agency called "an ammunition manufacturing plant". Some reports have suggested that the facility in question was connected to the production of missiles, however. The Iranian defence ministry said it had foiled the attack, with the facility suffering only "minor roof damage". The Jerusalem Post on the other hand reported on Sunday morning that the attack had been a "phenomenal success", citing Western and foreign intelligence sources. Although Israel has not publically claimed responsibility for the strike, The Wall Street Journal also claimed on Sunday morning that Israel and Mossad - the national intelligence agency of Israel - were behind it, citing US officials. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian criticised the drone attack as "cowardly" and aimed at creating "insecurity" in the country.