Conflict and Peace

There is intense diplomatic activity in the South Caucasus ahead of a likely resumption in direct negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan in an effort to normalise relations between them after decades of war. commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that synchronising the various elements that are part of the Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement process is always difficult, and the international context also continues to complicate matters. But there is a new sense of expectation in the air that the next days and weeks can bring about the long expected breakthrough.

One year has passed since Vladimir Putin’s Russia attacked Ukraine, plunging Europe into a war that has already claimed the lives of tens of thousands, and devastated a whole country. Putin expected Ukraine to fall into his lap within hours. It didn’t. It resisted heroically. He also expected Europe, the United States and the rest of the international community to give a muddled response, and for things to be back to business as usual within weeks. It did not happen. The response of Europe, the United States and similarly minded countries was fast, resolute and robust. Having grossly miscalculated, Putin had two choices: to admit his mistake and recalibrate, or, to persist, and to keep digging despite the fact that he was clearly in a hole. Most countries have internal corrective systems that in such situations keep leaders in check. In Russia no such systems exist. So Putin keeps digging himself into a hole by threatening to escalate. What has been clear from day one, is that this is not simply Ukraine’s war. Countries can have disputes, and sometimes they also go to war with each other. Usually the world stands by and tries to bring the belligerents to the negotiating table and to restore peace.

This week the European Union deployed its unarmed monitoring mission in Armenia with a mandate for two years.  EUMA -  EU Mission in Armenia - was formally established by a Council Decision on 23 January 2023. According to the EU, “through its deployment on the Armenian side of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, it aims to contribute to stability in the border areas of Armenia, build confidence and human security in conflict affected areas, and ensure an environment conducive to the normalisation efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan supported by the EU.” The decision to deploy a longer term mission is a bold step on the part of the EU. It is necessary and underpins the EU commitment to long term peace in the region. But it would be wrong not to mention that the mission is fraught with risks, which need to be managed.

The Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has arrived in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on Thursday (23 February), one day before the one year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The visit from PM Sanchez comes one day after Spain confirmed that it would send six refurbished Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, with the goal to have the tanks in Ukraine by the end of March or early April. Writing on Twitter, PM Sanchez said, "We will stand by Ukraine and its people until peace returns to Europe." He has also visited Bucha, the Kyiv suburb infamously known as the site of many alleged Russian war crimes against civilians in the first weeks of the full-scale invasion. "Bucha and Irpin show the wounds and scars of Putin's barbarism. Russia is not going to win this war. All of Spain is with Ukraine," he said. Sanchez's visit is the latest in a number of high-profile visits to Kyiv in the run up to the 24 February. US President Joe Biden made a surprise visit on Monday during which he pledged another $500m of military aid. Then, on Tuesday, the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited Kyiv for talks with President Zelensky, during which she pledged to continue supporting Ukraine in resisting Russian attacks but ruled out offering fighter jets.

On Tuesday (21 February), a delegation of six Ukrainians, including two representatives from the National Interests Advocacy Network NGO “ANTS”, and four representatives from the cities of Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Mariupol, visited the LINKS Europe in The Hague. The Ukrainian delegation included: Vasyl Sehin, the Executive Director of ANTS; Yuliya Vusenko, the regional coordinator of ANTS and the head of the investment commission in Volyn Oblast Council; Olexandr Senkevych, the Mayor of Mykolaiv; Serhii Koreniev, the Deputy Mayor of Mykolaiv; Halyna Luhova, the Mayor, Secretary and Head of the Military Administration of Kherson; and Sergiy Orlov, the Deputy Mayor of Mariupol. The Ukrainian delegation were on a two-day visit to Rotterdam and The Hague to meet with Dutch civil society and city representatives to discuss potential future cooperation between the respective organisations and cities, with a particular focus on developing horizontal EU-Ukraine ties and harnessing knowledge for the reconstruction of Ukraine following the ongoing war’s conclusion.