Conflict and Peace

On Saturday, 15 July, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan once again met in Brussels, under the auspices of the president of the European Council Charles Michel, to discuss the future of the relations between their two countries after years of war and conflict. Those who hoped for a dramatic breakthrough in the past in the process of Armenia - Azerbaijan normalisation, may have been disappointed at how slow the process moved. Yet progress is being made, and yesterday, speaking after the meeting in Brussels, European Council president Charles Michel summed it up, saying "We are going through one of the most comprehensive and vigorous stages of negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan". Those who still think that peace is a "moment" are mistaken. It is a process that needs to develop step by step. The meeting in Brussels this weekend was certainly a step in the right direction.

The United Nations (UN) has warned that Sudan risks descending into a "full-scale civil war" after an air strike was launched on a residential area in the city of Omdurman near the capital, Khartoum, on Sunday (9 July). The Deputy Spokesperson of the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said that he condemned the air strike that killed at least 22 people, adding that he "remains deeply concerned that the ongoing war between the armed forces has pushed Sudan to the brink of a full-scale civil war, potentially destabilizing the entire region." He said that "there is an utter disregard for humanitarian and human rights law that is dangerous and disturbing." Fighting broke out between two rival generals in Sudan on 15 April after talks between the Sudanese Army and the paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces, over a transition to a civilian government broke down, and fighting erupted. Since then approximately 3,000 people are confirmed to have been killed in the conflict, although the true death toll is likely to be much higher. Widespread sexual violence, targeted ethnic violence, and looting have been reported, as well as food and water shortages especially in the capital city of Khartoum.

Another summit between Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev will take place later this month in Brussels, facilitated by the president of the European Council Charles Michel. The region is currently abuzz with diplomatic activity as the international community urges the sides to bring their negotiations to a successful conclusion. At the end of June in Washington DC the foreign ministers of the two countries met under the auspices of US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. A read out of the meeting indicates that progress was made but substantial disagreements on key issues, such as the future of the Armenian community of Nagorno-Karabakh, remain also. It is likely that some tough discussions will take place over the summer. Time is now against those who want a peaceful solution. The momentum for peace in Baku and Yerevan is already fragile, and unless a breakthrough can be registered, even maintaining this momentum will become very difficult. The summer brings with it several challenges. Reducing incidents on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border and in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone most surely now be a priority. Serious negotiations should not be taking place with violence in the background. Instead building up the momentum for peace through various track 1.5 and track 2 initiatives is hugely important.

The Joint Armenian-Azerbaijani Liaison Group on confidence-building measures in support of lasting peace in the South Caucasus (JOLIG) held its 4th plenary meeting in The Hague, the Netherlands, on Tuesday 4 July 2023. All twelve members of the Joint Liaison Group were present. The Group exchanged views on the current state of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, and on its work in support of the Armenia-Azerbaijan normalisation process. The Joint Liaison Group agreed that over the next months it will increase its work on the ground, including through the holding of dialogue meetings in Armenia and Azerbaijan. On 5 July 2023 in The Hague, members of the Joint Liaison Group participated in the Policy Dialogue Conference: “The South Caucasus and the European Union – addressing challenges, seizing opportunities”, organised by LINKS Europe, with the participation of diplomats, officials, experts, opinion shapers and civil society activists from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.

Alarm is growing in Ukraine over the fate of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), which has been under Russian control since the opening weeks of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year. In his nightly address on Tuesday (4 July), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia is "preparing a provocation" at the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Citing Ukrainian intelligence, President Zelensky said that Russia has placed explosives on the roof of two power units, raising concerns that Russia could deliberately damage the power plant under their control to hinder Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensive. The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces also reported that Russia is preparing a strike "in the near future", adding that "their detonation should not damage power units but may create a picture of shelling by Ukraine's military". Zelensky also said that "now the whole world must realise that common security depends entirely on global attention to the occupiers' actions at the station". Earlier on 20 June, citing intelligence, President Zelensky also warned that Russia was considering attacking the NPP through radiation leakage.

On Monday (3 July) Israel launched a major military operation in the Jenin refugee camp in the north of the occupied West Bank in what the Israeli government described as an "extensive counter-terrorism effort". Monday morning began with drone strikes on targets in the militant stronghold, before Israel deployed hundreds of troops into the West Bank refugee camp. The operation came after growing domestic pressure following a series of attacks on Israelis, including a shooting last month that killed four Israelis. As of Tuesday morning (4 July), Palestinian officials have announced that 10 Palestinians have been killed during the Israeli operation in Jenin, while over 100 have been injured. Some 3,000 people have fled the refugee camp overnight, reports the Palestinian Red Crescent. While the Israeli government said that its operation "dealt a heavy blow to terrorist organisations", Palestinian officials have described the events as a "war crime" and an "invasion".