Conflict and Peace

The 20-point American plan for Gaza seeks to take Hamas out of the Gaza equation. This is necessary but not easy. Hamas has become part of the Gaza fabric. It will reinvent itself as many Islamist movements have done elsewhere. But its leaders must go, after they released all the hostages they still kept from the 7 October attack. Then the process of building a new Gaza must start: infrastructure, institutions, and more importantly, the spirit and soul of the Palestinian people. Israel's plans for the annexation of Gaza are out, as is the talk of resettling Palestinians elsewhere. Gaza is, and will remain, Palestine. One can see that rebuilding the infrastructure will happen quickly. Establishing security can also happen if countries contribute forces, and if the international force has a clear mandate. Institutions will take longer, and much will depend on what is happening in the wider Palestinian spectrum, and Israel’s readiness to honour its part of the deal. It is unlikely that Hamas will hand power to anyone but the Palestinian Authority, and this is one of the points that will have to be negotiated. Rebuilding the Palestinian spirit will take years, and healing the trauma of the last two years will be difficult, will take time, but is doable. The American plan has some interesting ideas, but the US must be ready to work with diverse partners, especially in the Middle East, the Muslim world, and Europe. The plan misses one vital point. It does not commit to a two-state solution. Apparently, the Israelis opposed this. The plan, in article 19, says: “While Gaza re-development advances, and when the PA (Palestinian Authority) reform program is faithfully carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognise as the aspiration of the Palestinian people”. Not good enough! But for the moment the world, and more importantly the Palestinian people, must accept the American plan, and make the most of it.

“Welcome to Armenia,” the pilot’s voice came over the tannoy as the Turkish Atlasjet flight touched down in Yerevan some time in 2011. “The temperature outsider is…” A normal announcement on any flight. This one, however, came in Turkish before being repeated in English. In Armenia. That was 14 years ago now. Despite the lack of diplomatic relations between the two countries, the flights have existed for years albeit with some interruptions and later operated by Pegasus and Flyone.

Israel’s defense minister on Wednesday 1 October ordered all remaining Palestinians to leave Gaza City, saying it was their “last opportunity” and that anyone who stayed would be considered a terrorist or militant supporter and face the “full force” of Israel’s latest offensive. At least 21 Palestinians were killed across the territory, according to local hospitals, as Hamas weighed a new proposal form US President Donald Trump  aimed at ending the war and returning the remaining captives taken in Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack that triggered it. A senior Hamas official told AP that there are some points in the proposal that are unacceptable and must be amended, without elaborating. He said the official response will only come after consultations with other Palestinian factions.

On 1 September 2025, LINKS Europe launched the regional campaign 'Landmine Free South Caucasus 2025'.While the world's attention is focused on new conflicts and crises, and some countries have withdrawn from the Ottawa Treaty due to heightened security concerns, the South Caucasus remains trapped by the deadly remnants of wars, some fought decades ago, others more recent. Although recent months have seen breakthroughs in relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, suggesting that sustainable peace is within reach, landmines and unexploded ordnance (UXO) continue to pose a daily threat in the region and remain a contentious issue in relations. They claim innocent victims, hinder economic development, and cause ecological damage.

US President  Donald Trump on Monday 29 September laid out a 20-point proposal  supported by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that would end the war in Gaza and free remaining hostages, leaning heavily into conditions that Hamas has previously rejected. Hamas is reviewing the plan while the Palestinian government in the occupied West Bank said it welcomed Trump’s plan to end the war and pledged to implement the reforms called for in his plan. Trump’s plan calls for establishing a temporary governing committee that would be headed by Trump and include former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. A Palestinian committee of technocrats would oversee civilian affairs, with power handed over later to a reformed Palestinian Authority. 

On Friday, (26 September) there was another amazing event in the process of Armenia-Azerbaijan dialogue, this time in Baku. Around twenty five Azerbaijanis involved in five thematic groups established by LINKS Europe earlier this year were briefed by Murad Muradov, co-Chair of the thematic group on Peace and Security; Liman Namazova, Chair of the thematic group on Environment; Lala Jumayeva, Chair of the thematic group on gender and diversity; Nigar Gurbanli, Deputy Chair of the thematic group on regional connectivity; and Ramazan Samadov, Deputy Chair of the thematic group on Governance, on the work done so-far. Murad Muradov spoke about his visit to Yerevan earlier in the week, and his speech to Armenian thematic group members. He said the momentum for peace, dialogue and regional co-operation was stronger than ever before. Ambassadors and other representatives of EU member states and others, as well as representatives of the EU Delegation, the EUSR office and other international institutions were in attendance. In a short speech to the gathering, LINKS Europe Director, Dr Dennis Sammut, said that enemies of peace remained active in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Many had been warmongers for years, and it was difficult for them to change. However it was important to engage them, and have an open and honest discussion with them. The Azerbaijani members of the thematic groups are eager to meet their Armenian counterparts in person in Tbilisi 27-28 October, when they hope to finish the work on the five reports.

This Saturday marks the fifth anniversary of the Second Karabakh War. To be honest, and personally speaking, it had always seemed the continuation of the first waged between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. After all, in the three decades between both, the conflict had nearly always been described as ‘frozen’ rather than resolved – at least until it wasn’t.

Yesterday (23 September) around thirty Armenians involved in the five Armenian-Azerbaijani Thematic Groups gathered in Yerevan to be briefed by Leonid Narsisian, co-Chair of the thematic group on Peace and Security; Narek Minasyan, Chair of the thematic group on regional connectivity; Sargis Harutyunyan, Chair of the thematic group on Governance; Aghavni Harutyunyan, Deputy Chair of the thematic group on Environment; and Andranik Shirinyan, Deputy Chair of the thematic group on gender and diversity. The Thematic Groups are a LINKS Europe initiative aimed at promoting a new style of Armenia-Azerbaijan dialogue, fit for the new reality. They will present their five reports in mid-November. We were delighted to welcome to the meeting in Yerevan, Murad Muradov, Azerbaijani co-Chair of the thematic group on peace and security who also spoke. Others to address the meeting included Erik Jessen, Political Officer at the EU Delegation in Armenia, Stepan Grigoryan, Senior Member of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Expert Strategic Platform (under the auspices of LINKS Europe), and Dennis Sammut, Director and George Simonishvili, South Caucasus coordinator, of LINKS Europe. It was a very good and engaging meeting, also attended by representatives of various embassies, including HE Marieke Monroy-Winter, the Ambassador of The Netherlands. A similar meeting with Azerbaijani members will take place in Baku on Friday (26 September). The Armenian and Azerbaijani members have been meeting on line since April. On 27 October they will meet together in Tbilisi to finalise their work.