Ukraine and Eastern Europe

On Tuesday (4 October), the European Union announced that it will integrate financial support to Ukraine into its 2023 budget, making its monetary contributions more structured and predictable, thus easing the economic pressures on war-torn Ukraine. The support payments will tighten the links between the EU and Ukraine, which got one step closer to achieving full EU membership after being granted candidate status earlier this year.  The decision to formalise the financial support was taken after criticism from the United States and others, who have accused the EU of delaying current support payments, and thereby raising doubts on how committed the EU is to Ukraine’s reconstruction after the war’s conclusion.  Out of the €9 billion promised in May this year, only €1 billion has so far been paid out, while the next payment of €5 billion is expected to reach Kyiv before the end of the year. Meanwhile, the United States has contributed over €10 billion in financial support, and over €25 billion in military aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion in late February. Financially, Ukraine is struggling significantly as a result of the ongoing war with Russia. Reports estimate that monthly foreign aid of approximately €5 billion is required for the Ukrainian economy to stay afloat. Oleg Ustenko, the economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, predicts that Ukraine’s deficit will shrink in the coming year to approximately €3.5 billion per month, as Ukraine has managed to resume initially disrupted economic activities in its western regions.

Putin’s annexation of parts of Ukraine takes the world to the verge of War, but a stronger and more united global condemnation of Russian aggression can still make Putin step back. Monday Commentary is back. Every Monday, commonspace.eu Managing Editor, Dennis Sammut discusses a hot topic on the European and international agenda. This week he weighs the implications of Russia’s annexation of parts of Ukraine, and the dilemma it poses to the rest of the world. He argues that it takes the world to the verge of a world war involving nuclear-armed states. But this can still be avoided if there is more global unity in condemnation of the Russian aggression.

Russian President Vladimir Putin presided over a ceremony at the Kremlin on Friday, (30 September) to formally annex Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine into the Russian Federation. "Congratulations! You have successfully cast your vote. I want the Kyiv authorities and their real masters in the West to hear me. People living in Luhansk and Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are becoming our citizens. Forever." "We call on the Kyiv regime to immediately end hostilities, end the war that they unleashed back in 2014 and return to the negotiating table. We are ready for this ... But we will not discuss the choice of the people in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. That has been made. Russia will not betray them", Putin told an audience of dignatries in the Kremlin. The official annexation was widely expected following the votes that wrapped up on Tuesday in the areas under Russian occupation. Moscow claimed residents overwhelmingly supported that their areas should formally become a part of Russia. The EU, US and other countries have denounced the referendums as "illegal and rigged", saying they were clearly orchestrated by Kremlin. United Nations chief Antonio Guterres said it was a "dangerous escalation" that would jeopardise prospects for peace.  With the formal annexation of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk, nearly 15% of Ukraine's territory will become Russian territory, for now. Ukraine and western countries have vowed never to accept the annexation.

The president of Belarus, Alexandre Lukashenko, made a surprise appearance in Abkhazia on Wednesday (28 September), in a move that many see as being part of the Kremlin’s present strategy to further distabilise Eurasia to help achieve the ultimate aim, which is complete Russian hegemony on the post-Soviet Space. For sure, Lukashenko did not go to Sukhumi to have a last dip in the Black Sea before winter sets in. This was a calculated political move, typical of Lukashenko. So why did he go, and why now? Lukashenko has long been a tool of the Kremlin, not only when it comes to affairs in his own Belarus, but more broadly on the international stage. Yet he has also tried to cultivate the image of being independent-minded, not the sort to take orders from Vladimir Putin, but rather one that is able to influence the Kremlin and its policies. This visit proves that in fact he is simply a stooge.

In a surprise move, Russia and Ukraine on the night from Wednesday to Thursday (22 September) implemented the biggest prisoner exchange since the start of the war between them in February Russia released over a hundred captured Ukrainian fighters in a prisoner exchange, including fighters from the Azov battalion.  In numerical terms, the prisoner swap represents a major victory for Ukrainian morale. Among others, Ukraine got back three commanders who led the last Ukrainian resistance in the port city of Mariupol and over 100 more members of the battalion. A total of 215 Ukrainians have been released. Among them are policemen, border guards, soldiers and pregnant fighters. In a seperate move ten foreigners who were fighting for the Ukrainian side and were captured by the Russians, were released thanks to the mediation of Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia.

Speaking in a pre-recorded speech that was originally scheduled for the evening before, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Wednesday morning (21 September) a partial mobilisation of 300,000 reservists to boost his faltering invasion of Ukraine. Far from being a demonstration of strength, however, his announcement exposes how weak a position Russia currently finds itself in, and on a number of levels too, writes commonspace.eu Deputy Editor Patrick Norén. The Russian President finds himself hamstrung across three fronts: his narrative of "everything is going according to plan" is imploding; the risks of doing nothing or declaring a full mobilisation have resulted in an unsatisfactory fudge that does not address the root cause of the problem; and Russia's far-right, furious at the disastrous invasion of Ukraine, is baying for blood.