South Caucasus

With just over a year left before parliamentary elections in Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan finds himself grappling with a rapidly changing political landscape. At the end of last month, voters in the country’s second largest city of Gyumri went to the polls to elect a new municipal council that would then select a mayor. While local elections might not seem as important as national votes, the results were anything but insignificant. With Pashinyan’s approval ratings around 11 percent according to a survey conducted in January, the results and how the vote was conducted could prove a useful barometer to assess his political future.

A conference organised in The Hague by LINKS Europe Foundation brought together experts and activists from the South Caucasus, the European Union and beyond to discuss the current state of political transition in the region. The gathering gave particular attention to the European Union's evolving role in the region amidst rapidly changing domestic and regional dynamics as well as Türkiye's influence as a regional power.

Last week, LINKS Europe organised a major conference in the Hague with the theme, “The South Caucasus, again in transition”. The event brought together experts, policy practitioners, and political voices from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to discuss the regional dynamics in the South Caucasus and the role of the European Union and Türkiye in the region.

ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN EXPERT POLITICAL DIALOGUE PLATFORM STATEMENT – 3 April 2025 The first meeting of the new Armenia-Azerbaijan Political Dialogue Platform was held in The Hague, The Netherlands on 2–3 April on the margins of the Conference organised by LINKS Europe entitled “The South Caucasus: Again in Transition”. The meeting was attended by the following members of the platform: Stepan Grigoryan (Armenia), Johnny Melikyan (Armenia), Benyamin Poghosyan (Armenia); Ahmad Alili (Azerbaijan); Mehman Aliyev (Azerbaijan) and Ramazan Samadov (Azerbaijan). LINKS Europe is facilitating and chairing the Platform. The members of the platform noted with pleasure that Armenia and Azerbaijan had in the last eighteen months, in direct negotiations, discussed and reached agreements on a number of issues, including on issues related to border delimitation and the text of a peace agreement between them. The members of the Platform welcomed these developments and stated their readiness to work together to strengthen and build on these achievements. The members of the platform stated that they remain vigilant to the risk of a deterioration of the situation and will do their utmost to prevent any such deterioration. The members of the platform welcomed the focus on the European Union and Turkey, as key external partners of the region, in the conference “The South Caucasus, again in transition”. On the European Union, the members of the platform noted recent developments and efforts by the EU to play an increased positive role as a global player. The members of the platform welcomed the continued interest and engagement of the EU with the South Caucasus. The members of the Platform called on the EU to develop a unified and clear strategy on the South Caucasus and called for discussions on this strategy to start. The members of the platform discussed a number of practical steps that they will take in the future, including in the development of Armenia-Azerbaijan media contacts. The members of the Platform called for a dialogue between the three countries of the South Caucasus and Turkey. They expressed their readiness to work in this direction through work and contact with Turkish Partners. The members of the platform thanked LINKS Europe for its work. They noted that the LINKS Europe segment of the EU4Peace III initiative includes new and innovative work that aims to involve a new generation in the process of regional peace. The members of the platform stand ready to support LINKS Europe in its endeavours.

The Georgian Parliament has passed the final reading of a new "foreign agents" law that targets both organisations and individuals who receive foreign funding and fail to register with the Justice Ministry.  The bill had drawn sharp criticism from Georgian opposition parties as well as U.S. and EU officials, who believe this bill will be used as a tool to suppress civil society and independent media.

The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved the bipartisan Megobari Act, which supports the aspirations of the people of Georgia for integration into Euro-Atlantic structures and imposes sanctions on officials of the governing party Georgian Dream and its allies undermining this path. Following this approval, the bill has been sent to other committees in the US Senate for review.

Accession to the EU is incompatible with Armenia’s continued membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, a Russian-led trade bloc that gives it tariff-free access to Russia’s vast market, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksei Overchuk. Armenia would also have to pay much more for Russian energy resources and food, Overchuk said. Last week, the Armenian Parliament adopted a bill calling for the government to seek accession to the EU, representing a significant shift in Armenia’s foreign policy perspective away from its long-time ally Russia.

The Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of the Council of Europe meeting in Strasbourg has adopted a critical resolution on Georgia that expresses deep concern over clear signs of democratic backsliding and the weakening of human rights in the country. It points at the increasing polarisation in society and the adoption of legislation that contradicts Council of Europe standards. 101 members voted in favour and only 10 against. The Congress of Local and Regional Authorities is an institution of the Council of Europe, responsible for strengthening local and regional democracy in its 46 member states and assessing the application of the European Charter of Local Self-Government.

The evolving dynamics of Russia-USA relations have sent shockwaves through the post-Soviet space, with the South Caucasus emerging as a critical region to observe the fallout. Recent negotiations between the United States and Russia, particularly those aimed at resolving the war in Ukraine, have exposed fault lines in international diplomacy that carry profound lessons for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The implications of this “rapprochement” are starkly illustrated by Ukraine’s experience, Azerbaijan’s strategic foresight, and Armenia’s persistent miscalculations in relying on external powers for security.