In this Joint Policy Discussion Paper, Ahmad Alili and Benyamin Poghosyan welcome the start of negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on a meaningful peace treaty. They warn however that, at all levels, trust between the two sides remains very low and that this will make the process difficult. They urge both sides to conduct the negotiations with a strong sense of realism, and to ensure that the speed of the negotiations is well calibrated.

On Tuesday (4 October), the European Union announced that it will integrate financial support to Ukraine into its 2023 budget, making its monetary contributions more structured and predictable, thus easing the economic pressures on war-torn Ukraine. The support payments will tighten the links between the EU and Ukraine, which got one step closer to achieving full EU membership after being granted candidate status earlier this year.  The decision to formalise the financial support was taken after criticism from the United States and others, who have accused the EU of delaying current support payments, and thereby raising doubts on how committed the EU is to Ukraine’s reconstruction after the war’s conclusion.  Out of the €9 billion promised in May this year, only €1 billion has so far been paid out, while the next payment of €5 billion is expected to reach Kyiv before the end of the year. Meanwhile, the United States has contributed over €10 billion in financial support, and over €25 billion in military aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion in late February. Financially, Ukraine is struggling significantly as a result of the ongoing war with Russia. Reports estimate that monthly foreign aid of approximately €5 billion is required for the Ukrainian economy to stay afloat. Oleg Ustenko, the economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, predicts that Ukraine’s deficit will shrink in the coming year to approximately €3.5 billion per month, as Ukraine has managed to resume initially disrupted economic activities in its western regions.

Fighting has broken out across different parts of Yemen after Houthi rebels, who at the moment control large chunks of the country, including the capital, Sanaa, refused to agree to a renewal of a UN brokered truce which lapsed on Sunday (2 October). The fiercest battles took place outside the central city of Marib and in Al-Fakher area of Dhale province, where the Houthis barraged government forces with mortar rounds, cannonballs, tanks and drones fitted with explosives. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg said on Sunday that the UN-brokered truce, which went into effect on April 2 and was renewed twice, would not be renewed a third time. The failure to renew it sparked outrage and criticism, primarily directed at the Houthis, as the truce has significantly reduced violence in Yemen, allowed Sanaa airport to reopen and made it possible for dozens of fuel ships to dock at Hodeidah port. There is also fear that the end of the truce will also renew Houthi attacks on neighbouring Arab countries. The Houthi military spokesman, Yahya Saree, has already issued a warning to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have been targeted in the past with missile attacks. “The [Houthi] armed forces give oil companies operating in the UAE and Saudi Arabia an opportunity to organise their situation and leave,” Saree tweeted.