Domestic Politics

Georgia is one of the former Soviet republics that, in theory, could have made a smooth transition to a European-style democratic model. Instead, it plunged into civil war in the early 1990s and enduring political divisions that persist to this day.

As the US presidential election approaches, many are assessing the implications of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris administration in different parts of the world. Commentators on the South Caucasus are no exception. The Biden administration established a Washington format to facilitate Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations and took steps to further US–Armenia relations, making a decision to upgrade the status of a strategic dialogue launched in 2019 to a strategic partnership commission. The Biden administration also invested efforts in thawing relations between Armenia and Turkey, viewing this as essential for regional stability. US officials view normalising Armenia–Turkey relations as crucial for reducing Russian influence and decreasing Armenia’s dependency on Russia.

The US Helsinki Commission on Tuesday (1 October) published an analysis of Russia's political and economic agenda. The document addresses, among other things, various developments in the South Caucasus. The region is experiencing various political shifts as Russia's material influence wanes due to its focus on its war with Ukraine. On the one hand. Armenia was once one of Russia's strongest allies. However, following the Nagorno Karabakh war in 2020, Armenia has moved away from Moscow and more towards a Western agenda. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has adopted a cooperative approach with Russia, especially given the similarities between the two countries' strong governmental grip.   

Ruben Vardanyan, an Armenian ex-official of the self-declared Nagorno Karabakh administration, was arrested and imprisoned along with other top Karabakh officials during Baku's recapture of Nagorno Karabakh in September 2023. On Thursday (3 October), Vardanyan's lawyers filed a lawsuit in Baku for alleged torture and denial of a speedy trial. 

On Wednesday (3 October), the Tavush movement, under the new name of the Holy Struggle, held a political rally in Yerevan's Republic Square. The movement was formed to protest against border delimitation with Azerbaijan, but also to demand the resignation of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The newly chosen name, 'Holy Struggle', is a strategic way of attracting support, particularly by exploiting its Christian overtones. 

NATO's new Secretary General Mark Rutte visited Kyiv on Thursday (3 October). It is Rutte's first working trip since officially taking office earlier this week. Earlier, Rutte announced that Ukraine's NATO membership would be one of the spearheads of his policy.

The Armenian government plans to increase military spending by about 20 per cent, equivalent to 110 billion drams (about $286 million). According to the proposed state budget for 2025, the Ministry of Defence will receive 664.6 billion drams (about $1.7 billion). Military expert Leonid Nersisyan, a researcher at the Armenian analytical centre APRI, describes this defence spending as unprecedented. However, he points out that despite the increased budget, Yerevan still lags far behind Baku in terms of military spending. Military spending remains lower than social spending in the state budget. Although the gap in military spending between Armenia and Azerbaijan is narrowing, with Armenia now trailing by a factor of two instead of five or six as it did in 2013, the difference remains significant.